Is anybody else having second thoughts about travelling to Europe this Summer with war in Ukraine raging?
If nothing else, I think the cost of fuel is going to sky rocket and it may even be rationed.
The balance of my twice cancelled, due to Covid, caravan holiday in France is due next month, and I'm wondering if I may just cut my losses, cancel altogether and lose my deposits.
There is a large degree of uncertainty about how the conflict in the Ukraine and the sanctions being applied to Russia will play out. We have already seen that it has affected the cost of fuel, and bearing in mind how the take up of EV's across the globe has increased, it highly likely OPEC and other oil producers will want to continue to make money whilst they can, so why not keep prices high.
How it will play out is difficult to predict. A reduction in supply whilst demand is high will drive prices higher, and might result in rationing either becasue there is insufficient oil being produced, or becasue the price of oil restricts some countries abilities to buy at inflated prices. Inevitably as prices rise ahead of earnings, each person will have to make their own judgment about how much fuel they're prepared to buy, and that has a knock on effect on how far you might consider traveling.
But there are other scenarios you should also consider:-
It's possible for example for a country to limit its sales of transport fuel to its own nationals, so if you were touring and such a restriction came into play, it could strand you. However if such restrictions were to be used, it's most likely there'd be several days warning of such and would allow visitors time to get out.
What happens if the military action spills out or is initiated in other countries, that might close borders all over the place.
There will be considerable pressure on some countries to take refugees from the conflict, that might impact what facilities might be available to tourists.
Yes you should be concerned, but I suspect if you take reasonable precautions such as keeping fuel well topped up, and staying at least one country apart from the conflict you would be OK but be prepared to pack up and come home at short notice from most places in Europe.