Am I Right To Be Concerned?

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Nov 12, 2021
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Is anybody else having second thoughts about travelling to Europe this Summer with war in Ukraine raging?
If nothing else, I think the cost of fuel is going to sky rocket and it may even be rationed.
The balance of my twice cancelled, due to Covid, caravan holiday in France is due next month, and I'm wondering if I may just cut my losses, cancel altogether and lose my deposits.
Any thoughts?
 
Nov 11, 2009
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Is anybody else having second thoughts about travelling to Europe this Summer with war in Ukraine raging?
If nothing else, I think the cost of fuel is going to sky rocket and it may even be rationed.
The balance of my twice cancelled, due to Covid, caravan holiday in France is due next month, and I'm wondering if I may just cut my losses, cancel altogether and lose my deposits.
Any thoughts?
Been having the exact same discussion with friends today. They go to southern France then into Spain for four weeks in June. They plan to let theirs ride to see how things turn out. But will cancel if fuel availability is a concern. Otherwise they will just dig into their pockets on prices.
 
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Mel

Mar 17, 2007
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That’s the problem with uncertainty, it is just so…….uncertain. Think you are absolutely right to be considering all the possible scenarios here, and it is a shame that you will likely to be forced to a decision before it becomes clear. I would leave it until the last possible second. We haven’t booked France this year ( like you 2 previous bookings cancelled) we were going to, but am rather glad we didn’t.
good luck
mel
 
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We are due to go end of June, previously cancelled last 2 years so deposit was rolled over, at the moment we still plan to go, although will be watching the situation and as I understand it our insurance will only cover for cancellation if advised by HMG not to travel. fuel will probably be the biggest worry for us if as suggested rationing was to happen.
 
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PTA

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We are not changing any of our plans to go to Spain and Portugal....and Putin can do exactly what those Ukrainian border guards told a Russian warship to do!
 
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My reading of the situation is that after prolonged debate, all European countries will block the import of Russian oil and gas which will push the cost of fuel and energy way up and cause significant shortages and rationing - the shortages/rationing will affect other countries more than the UK but we won't be immune from it here.

I'd love to be proved wrong!
 
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I don’t understand why the U.K. who import no oil and barely 4% of indirect gas from Russia suddenly get heavily caned on alleged world fuel prices. It is a great shame we don’t take advantage of our own home owned resources. And by all means delay going green for a decade.
 
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I don’t understand why the U.K. who import no oil and barely 4% of indirect gas from Russia suddenly get heavily caned on alleged world fuel prices. It is a great shame we don’t take advantage of our own home owned resources. And by all means delay going green for a decade.
Russia is our 3rd highest source of imported oil - regardless of the source, oil prices are determined by global demand which is why we're paying more.
 
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I don’t understand why the U.K. who import no oil and barely 4% of indirect gas from Russia suddenly get heavily caned on alleged world fuel prices. It is a great shame we don’t take advantage of our own home owned resources. And by all means delay going green for a decade.
To control prices if UK produced gas and oil we would have to nationalise the companies. Venezuela did that. Look were that got them. The oil majors withdrew their teams and technology support. North Sea oil peaked 23 years ago. We import oil mainly from Norway. The ONS link might be useful reading.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/envi...kenergyhowmuchwhattypeandwherefrom/2016-08-15

https://assets.publishing.service.g...data/file/904545/DUKES_2020_Press_Notice_.pdf
 
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Even if Russia stopped exporting oil altogether there would be no shortage of oil on the world market and hence no reason to have to introduce rationing. However, it is already causing a run on sourcing oil elsewhere and that is what is driving the price up.

To control prices if UK produced gas and oil we would have to nationalise the companies. Venezuela did that. Look were that got them. The oil majors withdrew their teams and technology support.

Why would oil companies have to be nationalised? One could restrict the price of petroleum and related products without resorting to nationalisation simply by offsetting any increase through a reduction in the tax on fuel, for example, if only temporarily.
 
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Even if Russia stopped exporting oil altogether there would be no shortage of oil on the world market and hence no reason to have to introduce rationing. However, it is already causing a run on sourcing oil elsewhere and that is what is driving the price up.



Why would oil companies have to be nationalised? One could restrict the price of petroleum and related products without resorting to nationalisation simply by offsetting any increase through a reduction in the tax on fuel, for example, if only temporarily.
Oil majors still make their profits but all taxpayers loose out by the reduced tax take . Not every tax payer is a driver but most if not all use electricity/gas. So use the extra tax and duties being received through high oil prices to help reducing gas/electric bills.

But in reality it’s best to just ride it out and modify behaviours as was the norm in previous oil crises when real prices of petrol were higher than current prices.
 
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Yes , thank you Roger. But whilst , currently Russian oil is third , not a massive percentage. I wonder why we don’t just get on with our own home produce and develop it and fracking ultimately becoming self supporting? Maybe we took our eye off the ball. We can always delay being green. At the rate we are going the average person in the street will become immobile and freezing😥😥
 
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Yes , thank you Roger. But whilst , currently Russian oil is third , not a massive percentage. I wonder why we don’t just get on with our own home produce and develop it and fracking ultimately becoming self supporting? Maybe we took our eye off the ball. We can always delay being green. At the rate we are going the average person in the street will become immobile and freezing😥😥
But how would you stop our producers selling their product in the global market at world prices?

The reason OPEC+ decided at last weeks meeting to not increase production beyond the planned rate is because demand still lagged production. OPEC+ confirmed their commitment to increase production in April by the stated amount, and for the months beyond. The prices aren’t the result of shortage, it’s market reaction to the situation in Ukraine.

https://m.uk.investing.com/news/com...me-for-surge-in-crude-prices--sources-2599651
 
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Yes , thank you Roger. But whilst , currently Russian oil is third , not a massive percentage. I wonder why we don’t just get on with our own home produce and develop it and fracking ultimately becoming self supporting? Maybe we took our eye off the ball. We can always delay being green. At the rate we are going the average person in the street will become immobile and freezing😥😥
I certainly agree that politicians and the general public really need to accept that this conflict will slow the switch to EVs.

Fracking has been abandoned as it caused earthquakes.
 
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I certainly agree that politicians and the general public really need to accept that this conflict will slow the switch to EVs.

Fracking has been abandoned as it caused earthquakes.

It was muted today that we will attempt to move towards self sufficiency. More in the North Sea and no doubt fracking. Perhaps coal. Announcement in the next few days.

John
 
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Is anybody else having second thoughts about travelling to Europe this Summer with war in Ukraine raging?
If nothing else, I think the cost of fuel is going to sky rocket and it may even be rationed.
The balance of my twice cancelled, due to Covid, caravan holiday in France is due next month, and I'm wondering if I may just cut my losses, cancel altogether and lose my deposits.
Any thoughts?
There is a large degree of uncertainty about how the conflict in the Ukraine and the sanctions being applied to Russia will play out. We have already seen that it has affected the cost of fuel, and bearing in mind how the take up of EV's across the globe has increased, it highly likely OPEC and other oil producers will want to continue to make money whilst they can, so why not keep prices high.

How it will play out is difficult to predict. A reduction in supply whilst demand is high will drive prices higher, and might result in rationing either becasue there is insufficient oil being produced, or becasue the price of oil restricts some countries abilities to buy at inflated prices. Inevitably as prices rise ahead of earnings, each person will have to make their own judgment about how much fuel they're prepared to buy, and that has a knock on effect on how far you might consider traveling.

But there are other scenarios you should also consider:-

It's possible for example for a country to limit its sales of transport fuel to its own nationals, so if you were touring and such a restriction came into play, it could strand you. However if such restrictions were to be used, it's most likely there'd be several days warning of such and would allow visitors time to get out.

What happens if the military action spills out or is initiated in other countries, that might close borders all over the place.

There will be considerable pressure on some countries to take refugees from the conflict, that might impact what facilities might be available to tourists.

Yes you should be concerned, but I suspect if you take reasonable precautions such as keeping fuel well topped up, and staying at least one country apart from the conflict you would be OK but be prepared to pack up and come home at short notice from most places in Europe.
 
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I certainly agree that politicians and the general public really need to accept that this conflict will slow the switch to EVs.

I don't agree. If anything the conflict could even accelerate the switch to EV's. With the cost of fossil fuels rising there will be more incentive to move away from the ICE towards electricity which can be produced by sustainable methods such as wind power and solar energy, making us less dependent on gas, oil, or coal from regions of conflict like Russia.
 
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Jan 31, 2018
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I'm with Lutz. Our electricity is going up far slower than fossil fuels and the ice vehicles are used v little at the mo. The mini on the other hand is first choice. Mind at the mo any new car might be a struggle . The Ukraine factories aren't producing wiring looms and other car parts of course. Lots of internet chatter about it which is annoying me a bit. I know orders etc are delayed but honestly look at the poor Ukrainians. Am supporting as much as I can by donations to the DEC and we'll be boycotting Shell and Come and McDonalds and anything else associated with Russia. Our spare room is ready for a refugee family.
 
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Likewise we contacted Reset an organisation that act as a focal point for all refugees sponsorship. Although our current U.K. programme is focused on allowing family members to come to U.K. Reset think that many such families will need non family hosts as the family member home may not be large enough to accommodate them. Local councils will then be involved in helping to find accommodatio.

The news shot of our three “ officials” in Calais giving out crisps, kitkat and water, then shutting shop was an embarrassment.
 
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Jan 31, 2018
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We seem to be dragging our heels-so slow and am hoping public opinion will soon sort the useless beaurocrats. Reset-thank you. I'll get in touch.
 
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I'm with Lutz. Our electricity is going up far slower than fossil fuels and the ice vehicles are used v little at the mo. The mini on the other hand is first choice. Mind at the mo any new car might be a struggle . The Ukraine factories aren't producing wiring looms and other car parts of course. Lots of internet chatter about it which is annoying me a bit. I know orders etc are delayed but honestly look at the poor Ukrainians. Am supporting as much as I can by donations to the DEC and we'll be boycotting Shell and Come and McDonalds and anything else associated with Russia. Our spare room is ready for a refugee family.
Also boycott MacDonalds, Starbucks, Cost Coffee who make millions in Russia.
Michael Portillo this morning had an interesting take. HMG in , correctly, striving to be green , has taken its eye off the ball. He believes we need to readdress where our power comes from and think again before we scrap the Fracking plants and ignore our reserves in the North Sea and Shetlands. The West cannot continue taking oil and Gas from Russia. .We can still go green in a few years time but for now we need to secure our own independence.
 
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My reading of the situation is that after prolonged debate, all European countries will block the import of Russian oil and gas which will push the cost of fuel and energy way up and cause significant shortages and rationing - the shortages/rationing will affect other countries more than the UK but we won't be immune from it here.

I'd love to be proved wrong!
I lived through rationing due to the Ark Royal blockade and it made hardly any difference and I was only allowed 4 gallons a month. However I could walk to work and also the town. Cost of goods did increase but not significantly. Sanctions do not work and make all countries involved more self sufficient!

Just to add that there is one clear winner and that is the government! Rising prices on fuel and goods means more VAT is paid into the coffers. Unintentional of course!
 
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Also boycott MacDonalds, Starbucks, Cost Coffee who make millions in Russia.
Michael Portillo this morning had an interesting take. HMG in , correctly, striving to be green , has taken its eye off the ball. He believes we need to readdress where our power comes from and think again before we scrap the Fracking plants and ignore our reserves in the North Sea and Shetlands. The West cannot continue taking oil and Gas from Russia. .We can still go green in a few years time but for now we need to secure our own independence.
I think that there’s only one fracking site and that was for pilot trials in Lancashire. I guess the question is, would you invest your money in a UK fracking company when the time for returns are most likely to be overturned before any real returns are achieved. Now SMR would get my support.

Where we ( the west) took our eye of the ball was 2014 Crimea, and failure to support the Red Lines in Syria.
 
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I lived through rationing due to the Ark Royal blockade and it made hardly any difference and I was only allowed 4 gallons a month. However I could walk to work and also the town. Cost of goods did increase but not significantly. Sanctions do not work and make all countries involved more self sufficient!

Just to add that there is one clear winner and that is the government! Rising prices on fuel and goods means more VAT is paid into the coffers. Unintentional of course!
But the extra vat returns can help support the Governments expenditure in other areas. Only today it’s reported that support to Bulb could rise fourfold from the £1.7 bn already earmarked. That’s money contributed by taxpayers and bond holders So the Government needs a few “winners.”
 
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