Market Reaserch on Innovative Gas Level Sensor

[Gassense]

Hi everyone,

I am a product designer working on a new product which remotely monitors your caravans gas usage. It reports this accurately to a screen in your caravan and warns you when you are going to run out. It is low cost and very reliable. Would you mind helping me out by answering the following survey?

http://www.surveymonkey.com/s/95bx2mw

it is really short and will help my product development enormously, as your comments are very valuable.

Many thanks,

George from Gas - Sense

 

[RogerL]

Q5 "How much would you spend?" needs an extra price category, £0-19, to reflect the very low amount that some of us would spend on such a device.

 

[RayS]

Agree with Roger except in my case the band should read 01p - 0.99p

 

[Parksy]

I think that somebody has beaten you to it mate

 

[Gassense]

Thanks for the comments! As for the other products, I have tested these, and they don't work very well, they are also expensive and don't display the information in the caravan, so you still need to go and check the gas locker. Also, there is no predictitative element to that device, it only tells you when the gas has passed a physical point or requires manual interrogation.

 

[Surfer]

Thanks for the comments! As for the other products, I have tested these, and they don't work very well, they are also expensive and don't display the information in the caravan, so you still need to go and check the gas locker. Also, there is no predictitative element to that device, it only tells you when the gas has passed a physical point or requires manual interrogation.

Why reinvent the wheel? Simpler to wait until you run out of gas and then change the bottle. Calor Lite bottles have an indicator on them. Congratulations on trying to be inovative, but I think I woudl prefer a cheap relaible unit that measures the amount of electric units used in my caravan for when we go on metered pitches to make sure the owner is not ripping us off!

 

[colin-yorkshire1]

hi, as a caravanner that extensively used EHU and very little gas such a monitor would have been pointless, sorry.
and besides the the "lite" bottles have a gauge on the neck that takes an intstant to look at whenever one was inside the front locker usually "daily" looking for something else.
However, a product that could distinguish between gas usage and a leak could be a life saver,
"now thats a product I would buy"

ps. good post by Surfer, re,electric usage, the more meters that are rolled out on sites the more chance there is for overcharging of units used, consentrate your efforts for one of these!!!

 

[Martin24]

When it runs out change it, if you go to bed at say 11 and it's getting a bit low I doubt if many of us would change the bottle incase it ran out at 3, more likely to just leave it until the morning rather than waste valuable gas.

 

[Gassense]

Many thanks for your responses. I appreciate that for users who aren't reliant on the bottled gas, this may not be an especially relevant product. However, it is interesting that you picked up on the gas leaks side of things, as there is a built in safety warning with the product.

I personally feel that having a predicted time would be helpful, with pressure, it only starts to change significantly just before the bottle runs out, so you don't have much warning. With the time, you don't even need to think about it, and when it comes to the night before, if the meter warns that you will run out in 1 hour, I imagine you probably would change the bottle rather than risk a cold night / shower etc. whereas if it said that it would run out at 10 o'clock he next day you could get the last out of your bottle without risk.

 

[Parksy]

I'm not trying to discourage you and I completed your survey, but most tourers now have dual fuel heating and hot water systems which means that if the lpg bottle is empty the electric heater or water heater will be switched on, in fact most tourer owners use the electric systems rather than using their lpg supply because having paid for ehu as part of the pitch fee they want their money's worth.
This leaves the hardcore caravanners who use their caravan systems to the full potential by rallying, often with no ehu available.
My experience as a rallier is that I have a fairly good idea of how much lpg is left in the bottle based on experience but some ralliers either use much larger lpg bottles whic are not housed in the gas locker but secured externally or they use Gasglow automatic changeover systems
I'd say that the potential market for cheaper warning systems would be amongst ralliers, the system would need to work off 12v and a leak sensor would help to sell the product.
Some of the larger sumer rallies allow trade stalls so perhaps such a stall would help you to assess your potential market?

 

[Martin24]

Totally agree that once you regularly rally you soon get a feel for how long it'll last at different times of the year. As a fellow rallier I think I would probably still not go with the need for a level warning but leaks, especially with children's safety to consider is a different matter. I have completed the survey except the price section which starts too high for the benefits to me.

 

[starlightdj]

Hi any gas low warning system is helpful, however from a rallying point of veiw, most people I rally with are now changing to saffil gas cylinders as you can fill them at a lot of lpg petrol stations.
Plus Big advantage they have a panel so you can see the gas and how much is left.

Re the meter itsself, I did look at the Truma hand held device when I had the calor lites as I found the bottle little gauge next to useless, ie registering empty when still just under half full.
On talking to truma at their stand at the NEC, I was informed their hand held gauges where useless on Calor lites due to the central core rod inside the bottle, therfor was only of use on the traditional type of cylinder.

My question has your new device got around this situation and can it be used on calor lites, still the favourite bottle in the caravanning community I would think?.

Cheers
John

 

[Gassense]

Again, thank you for your comments, it is interesting to hear about how different types of users would be interested in different features. Could be worth introducing a more simplistic low cost version? As for which models my technology works on, any gas bottle is compatible, it works on all materials, and the internal structure doesn't make a difference, although it is optimised to work on Calor and Calor lite. I hope to take the product to the Caravan Clubs National Rally in May, with a batch of production prototypes, for testing.
I still think it might be nice for people to not have to worry about their gas atall, but I think the safety element is important, and should probably be marketed more. Thanks for the comments.

 

[Damian]

Quote " I still think it might be nice for people to not have to worry about their gas atall, but I think the safety element is important, and should probably be marketed more"

It matters not what gas level sensor you have, the caravan owner will always have to "worry" about their gas as the cylinder WILL run out, and no level sensor in the world today, or in the forseeable future can tell when it will happen.
Most caravanners know when it will happen,,,,,,,,,,,,at night, in the rain, in the middle of cooking dinner.

No gas level sensor can make good a gas safety issue, that is what Annual Servicing is all about, and the caravanners nose when on site.
No gas sensor can tell when a GOK regulator will block, nor when the over pressure safety vent blows, again it is the smell and sudden loss of gas which is the only indication.

 

[ProfJohnL]

I've never run out of gas having used an auto change over systems.

Rather like Dragons Den, I'm not sure there really is a problem to be solved here. Caravanners have coped by various means for 80 odd years. New technology does not always have a more effective answer to age old problems.

If you have done your research properly then you will be aware there have been attempts to produce LPG level monitoring systems in the past, and either due to technical difficulties, or the systems being uneconomically expensive for consumers solutions have either not got off the drawing board or have not been long lived.

There are three points of inertia you will need to overcome
1. Price point
2. Any additional weight the system introduces in the gas locker
3. Accuracy, consistency, and reliability.

Fail in any of these, and the product will gain bad reports and not sell.

I know that a few caravanners love to have the latest gadget and will be prepared to pay a little extra to be able to boast about their new toy, but in general in these relatively austere times caravanners are looking for good value products.

Perhaps there are other markets for the technology, which might help to spread the risk?

Do your research, and take a pragmatic view of the information it reveals about the real viability of such a product.

 

[Gassense]

Thanks for these points, but I am afraid I would have to disagree with you, as the whole point of this product, is that it does tell you when you are going to run out (e.g. In 3 hours). Also, whilst it is not a substitute for annual servicing, it can detect leaks and provide early warning if the user has failed to notice the signs or is asleep etc. ?

Do you not feel that that is helpful?

Quote " I still think it might be nice for people to not have to worry about their gas atall, but I think the safety element is important, and should probably be marketed more"

It matters not what gas level sensor you have, the caravan owner will always have to "worry" about their gas as the cylinder WILL run out, and no level sensor in the world today, or in the forseeable future can tell when it will happen.
Most caravanners know when it will happen,,,,,,,,,,,,at night, in the rain, in the middle of cooking dinner.

No gas level sensor can make good a gas safety issue, that is what Annual Servicing is all about, and the caravanners nose when on site.
No gas sensor can tell when a GOK regulator will block, nor when the over pressure safety vent blows, again it is the smell and sudden loss of gas which is the only indication.

 

[ProfJohnL]

Thanks for these points, but I am afraid I would have to disagree with you, as the whole point of this product, is that it does tell you when you are going to run out (e.g. In 3 hours). .........

But how accurately will it be, how far will you be able to believe the prediction?

To be able to predict you need to know the quantity of fuel remaining and the rate of consumption. That can then be extrapolated to give a exhaustion time.

That is simple enough, but it relies on all the dynamic factors remaining constant, and in caravans they don't (Actually the same applies to most fuel using technologies)

So the problems start with establishing how much fuel you have in store. Unfortunately LPG cylinders come in a variety of different sizes, materials and constructions, so there is no external way of knowing what the the actual content is. The only way is to weigh the cylinder and to subtract its tare weight.

This means it must be up to the consumer to punch in some data into your system to tell it how much fuel is available. That's relatively easy for commercial refills, where they are filled by weight, but not so easy for the self fill cylinders, and what about those cylinders that have been transferred from other duties, where the quantity of fuel remaining is indeterminate?

The next problem for the system is to know how much fuel is being consumed. Because the cylinders are so variable, there is no practical volumetric method measuring whats left in the cylinders, so I have to assume the kit actually meters the flow of gas from the cylinder, and calculates whats remaining. So that means its important to know exactly how much was in the cylinder to begin with.

Provided the cylinder details were fed in correctly, and the meter is recording accurately, then the system should know how much LPG remains in the cylinder. Then based on the historic record of consumption it can predict when the cylinder will be exhausted. That fine as long as the consumption does not change, but in reality, the consumption will change quite a lot, its the nature of caravans and the people that use them:-

Whilst caravans are quite well insulated these days, they do not carry much thermal mass, which means the internal temperature does tend to follow changes to the external ambient. To compensate, heaters are fitted with thermostats, which automatically vary the amount of heat produced. So you have a consumption variable here.

In addition occupancy of the caravan changes hour by hour, so demands for heating also change. When occupied, meals are cooked, and drinks are made so again this impacts on the rate of gas consumption.

And it is the nature of holidays that the occupancy pattern of one day in not necessarily repeated on consecutive days. All this points to a considerable variation in gas consumption rates, which is counter productive to predicting cylinder exhaustion times.

I cannot foresee how any system can produce a cylinder exhaustion prediction with any great accuracy.

If you are predicting a 3 hour exhaustion time, what margin of error do you have to provide, I'll expect it cannot be less than +/-2 hours on a 3 hour projection.

Go on prove me wrong!!!

 

[Gassense]

Well thanks for this in depth analysis on the problem, it is a good opportunity for me to better explain the system. In fact, I have spend months developing a learning algorithm, which adapts itself to your personal usage, takes into account the time of day, time of year and various usage profiles, extrapolates instantaneous usage and predicts a time. The more you use the system, the better it becomes. However, even after two bottles of usage, the prediction is accurate to less than an hour (There is typically 20 - 40mins life in the bottle when the system predicts it has run out) from an 8 hour predicted time.

 

[Parksy]

Well thanks for this in depth analysis on the problem, it is a good opportunity for me to better explain the system. In fact, I have spend months developing a learning algorithm, which adapts itself to your personal usage, takes into account the time of day, time of year and various usage profiles, extrapolates instantaneous usage and predicts a time. The more you use the system, the better it becomes. However, even after two bottles of usage, the prediction is accurate to less than an hour (There is typically 20 - 40mins life in the bottle when the system predicts it has run out) from an 8 hour predicted time.

If the system operates as well as you described then I'm sure that there would be applications which would offer opportunities for marketing your product.
For most caravanners and possibly motorhomers price would be a major factor in a decision to buy such a system, don't forget that a touring caravan is historically regarded as an inexpensive way to have a holiday even though in practice this is not necessarily true.
I've no knowledge or experience of this but have you considered boat owners?
I'm led to believe that boat ownership is expensive, so there may be more money available amongst those who do their touring on water.

 

[Damian]

Quote " it can detect leaks and provide early warning if the user has failed to notice the signs or is asleep etc. ?"

I am sorry but how is a sensor going to tell an owner anything if he is asleep?
Can it turn the cylinder off ???? or does it produce an ear shattering alarm which then wakes half the site up?
As for predicting useage, not even a caravanner knows what his use will be hour to hour, there are too many variables.
Also, dont forget that most caravnners use as much electric as they can, rather than gas.

Quote " the prediction is accurate to less than an hour"

So, a gizmo tells you , in the middle of the night, in the pouring rain, when the suppliers are shut that you are about to run out of gas, which you will know very shortly after anyway !

 

[RogerL]

Automatic changeover regulators are increasing being fitted to top-of-range caravans which will filter their way down the caravan ranges as time goes on, like all useful pieces of caravanning equipment. So, given the availability of equipment that does the changeover, thus avoiding going outside, I fail to see any advantage in a device that simply tells me to go out in the cold/wet and change the cylinder!
I also defy any algorithm to accurately my rate of gas consumption as it varies so wildly - from the minute amount needed to do two slices of toast/day because all other energy used is electric right up to the huge amount needed to run Alde central heating on gas during an off-EHU overnight stop en-route in sub-zero conditions

 

[ProfJohnL]

Well thanks for this in depth analysis on the problem, it is a good opportunity for me to better explain the system. In fact, I have spend months developing a learning algorithm, which adapts itself to your personal usage, takes into account the time of day, time of year and various usage profiles, extrapolates instantaneous usage and predicts a time. The more you use the system, the better it becomes. However, even after two bottles of usage, the prediction is accurate to less than an hour (There is typically 20 - 40mins life in the bottle when the system predicts it has run out) from an 8 hour predicted time.

Having worked in a company where R&D was always seen as the route to continued success, I have seen many schemes come with fantastic claims about their abilities, but after careful and thorough testing, the claims were found to be wildly optimistic. So please forgive my challenging attitude towards your idea. Don't get me wrong, sometimes blue sky or lateral thinking has ended up creating some very worthwhile and diverse products.

If you have genuinely managed to crack the problem of predicting future gas consumption in small volatile systems with your claimed degree of accuracy, then very well done. I will wait to see the confirmation of your claims by the consumers, but until the systems abilities can be verified in real usage by a large number of consumers, I

Let me be frank with you, I'm not against the idea, and I wish you well with it, but having spent time on a project where the idea of was to remotely manage energy in caravans (Gas and electricity) and in the latter years up to 1999 involving mirco chip computers it became abundantly clear that predicting short term gas consumption in real touring caravans was definitely problematic.

I must also warn you that obtaining the legally necessary CE approval for any product that comes into contact with the actual gas vapour or liquid is also a complex and expensive business.

Now I appreciate that in the intervening 14 years micro chip computers have come on a pace, and they will have more processing power, and semiconductor environmental monitors have both improved and come down in price, so the ability to make more adaptive systems at reasonable cost will have improved, but despite these advances, it will only take a small change in the consumers usage pattern late in the life of a cylinder to upset the the prediction by a considerable margin. I would be very surprised if you can genuinely and consistently predict exhaustion across more than 60 to 70% of systems with the degree of accuracy you claim 3 hours before it occurs.

I can understand you may want to keep the details of your concept under wraps for now, but if my assumption concerning the consumers need to input cylinder data before it can calculate life expectancy, then its all gone to pot if the cylinder is already part used or filled by the consumer with indeterminate quantities.

 

[Damian]

A veryimportant point to make in the concept is that if it utilises any electrical supply, that supply or use cannot be used within the gas locker, it is illegal to do so.

The ONLY allowable electrical item whichmay be used is a solenoid shut off valve.
BS7671