Surprised at lack of comment on caravan industry economic issues.

[Tobes]

I am very happy to be one of the poorly informed and would be very happy to continue burning oil for as long as it is available however your choice if you want to believe the myth that EV batteries will last forever. Enjoy your EV. LOL! 🤣 🤣 🤣

I dont think the suggestion is you are poorly informed @Buckman . After all we keep banging on about it, and you keep reading and asking valid questions . You also have a very good reason not have an EV (no home charging).

The reality is we are still only around 4 to 5 years into EVs as towcars, and the market has exploded in that time. When I got mine, there were literally 3 cars available that could tow my caravan (1500kg). Polestar 2, Audi Etron and Mercedes EQC. The EX40 (as per Dusty's son) didn't exist. The Tesla model Y didn't exist. The Hyundai Ioniq 5 and Kia EV6. No BMW i4. No Nissan Arya. These cars seem (to me) to have been arround for ages, but the reality they are all fairly new.

There are now 3 EVs on the market that can tow 2.5Tonnes, (Kia, Hyundai and BMW) and around 20 that can tow 2T or more.

It's really amazing how quickly we have moved forward, and the options are getting wider all the time. In 10 years, I think there will be an incredibly healthy used market, and I think battery life will be a genuine non-issue.

IMHO, there is a link between used prices and new prices. Consumers will demand sensible price points that are reflected by long term value, and massive depreciation has an impact on that. But this issue can (and I think will) be solved with ever longer warranties on batteries, that protect the user against degradation, and manufacturers will offer them to keep their new product competitive.

 

[JTQ]

your choice if you want to believe the myth that EV batteries will last forever.

Where here has that ever been suggested?
I thought we all realised cycling power into and from batteries has its longevity limits, normally seen as a degradation in the capacity.

As technology develops we have seen this cycling longevity increasing many folds, and I suspect there is more to come.

 

[otherclive]

Where here has that ever been suggested?
I thought we all realised cycling power into and from batteries has its longevity limits, normally seen as a degradation in the capacity.

As technology develops we have seen this cycling longevity increasing many folds, and I suspect there is more to come.

I understand that Nissan have stopped their plans to take used batteries and repurpose them for domestic battery storage. The reason being that there was not enough batteries becoming available to support the initiative. So my conclusion is that battery life exceeded Nissans estimates.

Similarly for battery recycling initiatives these are developing but slowly as again not enough returns to make them economic. But as battery numbers increase these options will be viable.

 

[Dustydog]

Life wont stop in 2030, All that stops is the sale of new IC cars. Second-hand will still be just as valid as they are now. It will mean the supply of IC tow vehicles will begin to diminish as no new ones will be sold, but you'll have at least ten years of future second hand ICE tow vehicles. By then who knows, there might be health supply of decent EV tow vehicles available.

You missed out my sentence
“Maybe that will be our turning point for a low mileage replacement. Or do we hang up our tow bar?” ( Another diesel)

Nothing to do with an EV / ICE debate.
Realistically even if a EV in 2030 could tow my TA without refuelling from Berwick to Cirencester I doubt I could afford the price. A newer low mileage diesel will satisfy my towing needs. The massive Kia EV 7 may work but at an eye watering £70 k in the present economic climate just isn’t realistic.

We all know the pros and cons of both. In fact my sons Volvo XC Recharge has been subject of many of my posts extolling the generally satisfactory performance. It still fails on long journeys, not do much on recharge times but the high cost of the rapid chargers currently available en route.

Solo it is an excellent car, well appointed. But not for the caravanner. I do accept without question Tobes has made the jump and for his travels towing it works although far more stops than we do . I am sure it will improve but with the present world troubles who knows what’s round the corner😉

Sorry I typed this before reading Tobes and others earlier posts.
Like Clive’s charging points the ones here in Cornwall are not rapid charge but great for the overnight booster.
I think the caravan industry needs a major wake up call for 2030!

 

[Hutch]

I understand that Nissan have stopped their plans to take used batteries and repurpose them for domestic battery storage. The reason being that there was not enough batteries becoming available to support the initiative. So my conclusion is that battery life exceeded Nissans estimates.

Similarly for battery recycling initiatives these are developing but slowly as again not enough returns to make them economic. But as battery numbers increase these options will be viable.

Several of the well know car manufacturers Audi, Honda Volvo and others have retracted from full on EV by 2035. And are going more for Hybrid, ( my favoured for now) but the Hydrogen powered engines seem to being more interesting at the moment.
Sit back and wait.

 

[ProfJohnL]

I am very happy to be one of the poorly informed and would be very happy to continue burning oil for as long as it is available however your choice if you want to believe the myth that EV batteries will last forever. Enjoy your EV. LOL! 🤣 🤣 🤣

Who has claimed EV batteries will last for ever?

 

[ProfJohnL]

There are always three sides to a coin.....

My daughter needed to replace the battery in their Nissan Leaf at a considerably lower mileage than their diesel car had on the clock and of a similar age.

Battery replacement time would be quite high on the list of things I'd need to know when considering an EV, especially when buying used. And cost of replacement.

Nissan Leaf's are well known for having poor battery management. They are the exception rather than the rule.

 

[ProfJohnL]

Several of the well know car manufacturers Audi, Honda Volvo and others have retracted from full on EV by 2035. And are going more for Hybrid, ( my favoured for now) but the Hydrogen powered engines seem to being more interesting at the moment.
Sit back and wait.

That will only possible as long as the Gov't doesn't do any more U turns.

As for hydrogen, that will only be economical if they can find a cheaper method of producing hydrogen, as well as storing it, and transporting it.

As things stand at the moment the energy stored by hydrogen is less than the energy used to produce it. In practice it is more economical to use the energy that would have been used to extract hydrogen to charge EV batteries directly.

There would need to be many billions of £ spent to put the necessary infrastructure in to support hydrogen transport, where as EV's are largely using the existing electrical grid.

 

[Buckman]

Maybe in future cars will run on hot air as plenty about! 🤣 🤣 🤣

 

[Gafferbill]

.......won't be long now before we hear the bish bang bong sounds of cans being kicked down the road as the 2030 deadline get extended.
Familiarity has breed contemp over how easily modern society can do without ICE engined vehicles.

 

[Gafferbill]

....... where as EV's are largely using the existing electrical grid.

........and thus not being taxed on their fuel.
Current situation is EV owners receive a massive subsidy on fuel costs with implications of lost revenue for the government which is unsustainable.

 

[Buckman]

A certain member of the government is now realising that they are losing a lot of tax on EVs and will try and find a way around it to add taxes in one form or the other while still looking supportive of net zero. 🤣 🤣 🤣

 

[otherclive]

........and thus not being taxed on their fuel.
Current situation is EV owners receive a massive subsidy on fuel costs with implications of lost revenue for the government which is unsustainable.

I think road pricing will eventually come in, although I’m sure smart chargers could be developed to differentiate between home electric usage and charging usage. Although plugging your lead into the neighbours external three pin 240v outlet will have to stop 😂 Commercial chargers could levy a tax.

Wonder what other countries are doing?

 

[Dustydog]

According to recent a HMG bulletin the EV is being taxed, possibly more than some ICEs

Vehicle tax for electric, zero and low emission vehicles

How the Vehicle Excise Duty (VED) changes affect your vehicle.

www.gov.uk

So not all a bed of roses🙀

 

[ProfJohnL]

I think road pricing will eventually come in, although I’m sure smart chargers could be developed to differentiate between home electric usage and charging usage. Although plugging your lead into the neighbours external three pin 240v outlet will have to stop 😂 Commercial chargers could levy a tax.

Wonder what other countries are doing?

There is another relatively easy option and that is to use the milage recorded and charge the owner accordingly. It may require call cars (even new ones) to be taken to an approved Govt test station to have the milage recorded and the charge calculated.

 

[RogerL]

There is another relatively easy option and that is to use the milage recorded and charge the owner accordingly. It may require call cars (even new ones) to be taken to an approved Govt test station to have the milage recorded and the charge calculated.

It's too easy now to get the mileage changed, albeit illegally - if the odometer becomes the basis for taxation that will just mushroom.

 

[Buckman]

It's too easy now to get the mileage changed, albeit illegally - if the odometer becomes the basis for taxation that will just mushroom.

I would think that to set up a system like that will cost millions and will not be cost effective. For example one of our cars only does about 3-4000 miles a year so government would lose out. Many EVs would be used around town and not clock up high mileages so another loser.

 

[Tobes]

I would think that to set up a system like that will cost millions and will not be cost effective. For example one of our cars only does about 3-4000 miles a year so government would lose out. Many EVs would be used around town and not clock up high mileages so another loser.

Hang on - the point of the system would be to charge users for miles driven. If you dont drive many - you don't pay so much. That has nothing to do with fuel type and everything to do with driving habits.

 

[Dustydog]

I would think that to set up a system like that will cost millions and will not be cost effective. For example one of our cars only does about 3-4000 miles a year so government would lose out. Many EVs would be used around town and not clock up high mileages so another loser.

And those of us living in the sticks with no public transport will do higher than average miles and be penalised? Sam on Skye🙀

 

[RogerL]

And those of us living in the sticks with no public transport will do higher than average miles and be penalised? Sam on Skye🙀

Remote communities could be subsidised - they already get a subsidy on fuel duty.

 

[Buckman]

Hang on - the point of the system would be to charge users for miles driven. If you dont drive many - you don't pay so much. That has nothing to do with fuel type and everything to do with driving habits.

Eactly my point. At the moment whether you drive a 100 miles a year or 100000 miles you pay the same amount of VED. Therefore if most people did low mileage the government would lose out on a bucket full of cash no matter what sort of propulsion is used.

In addition, do not forget the hundreds, if not thousands of unlicensed and uninsured cars on our roads every day. Lastly there are still millions of cars on UK roads that are 10 or more years old and they will need to be tracked for genuine mileage. It would not make economic sense to any government.

Setting up a system to record mileage will not be cheap and there is no way at present of checking that the mileage is genuine would be extremely difficult to monitor. Personally I would prefer an extra tax on fuel that replaces VED as that catches everyone, except the government as they will probably lose. The issue is then how do they add the extra VED tax on fuel for EVs. Back to the drawing board!

 

[RogerL]

Eactly my point. At the moment whether you drive a 100 miles a year or 100000 miles you pay the same amount of VED. Therefore if most people did low mileage the government would lose out on a bucket full of cash no matter what sort of propulsion is used.

In addition, do not forget the hundreds, if not thousands of unlicensed and uninsured cars on our roads every day. Lastly there are still millions of cars on UK roads that are 10 or more years old and they will need to be tracked for genuine mileage. It would not make economic sense to any government.

Setting up a system to record mileage will not be cheap and there is no way at present of checking that the mileage is genuine would be extremely difficult to monitor. Personally I would prefer an extra tax on fuel that replaces VED as that catches everyone, except the government as they will probably lose. The issue is then how do they add the extra VED tax on fuel for EVs. Back to the drawing board!

I agree with some of that - before EVs the fuel duty was a a fair way of raising government revenue - those who drove more distance paid more - and those who drove big heavy vehicles paid more than for light vehicles, reflecting the wear & tear on the roads.

But EVs can't be taxed in the same way so an alternative has to be found - and drivers should be aware that any system of road pricing will inevitably include peak period premium pricing.

 

[Tobes]

Eactly my point. At the moment whether you drive a 100 miles a year or 100000 miles you pay the same amount of VED. Therefore if most people did low mileage the government would lose out on a bucket full of cash no matter what sort of propulsion is used.

People don;t pay the same VED. New cars are very different for the 1st year. "expensive" cars are different for the next 5. Cars older than 2017 vary by CO2. Commercial vehicles have another structure (that I don't even pretend know).

The government will only loose out if they set the mileage rate or weight multiplier incorrectly.

In addition, do not forget the hundreds, if not thousands of unlicensed and uninsured cars on our roads every day.

Evasion is rife in all uses. Use of lower duty diesel in vehicles that are not allowed to use it is another form. Making a tax hard to evade is a good idea, but nothing will be foolproof.

Lastly there are still millions of cars on UK roads that are 10 or more years old and they will need to be tracked for genuine mileage. It would not make economic sense to any government.

Maybe the system uses the MOT to track them. Or maybe they carry on paying VED, and only newer cars use road pricing.

Setting up a system to record mileage will not be cheap and there is no way at present of checking that the mileage is genuine would be extremely difficult to monitor. Personally I would prefer an extra tax on fuel that replaces VED as that catches everyone, except the government as they will probably lose. The issue is then how do they add the extra VED tax on fuel for EVs. Back to the drawing board!

Which is , I think, why road pricing is inevitable.

 

[ProfJohnL]

I would think that to set up a system like that will cost millions and will not be cost effective. For example one of our cars only does about 3-4000 miles a year so government would lose out. Many EVs would be used around town and not clock up high mileages so another loser.

Why would it cost millions? Every year cars over three have to attend an MOT centre where the milage data is already collected. It would not be massively difficult to use that data to generate a a road tax valuation. It would mean that all cars including new ones would have to read by an approved assessor.

If the basis of a charge is miles driven, then fairest way is to simply set a milage charge of say 2p per mile and multiply that by the number of miles travelled. That way those who use the most pay the most. If that does not generate the necessary income, the government can set the the cost per mile to a higher amount.

 

[Andy Norfolk]

Maybe in future cars will run on hot air as plenty about! 🤣 🤣 🤣

That would give an unfair advantage to politicians 🤣😭