Worrying times???

[Dustydog]

See this article
http://www.caravantimes.co.uk/news/people/human-interest/ncc-figures-reveal-20-drop-in-caravan-production-$21381649.htm?source=newsletter
UK caravan production is down 20% this year. That's a lot.
Is it because prices have risen too much and maybe the 20% VAT has put new buyers off?

Or dare I say the new models are not as appealing as previous years models?

In my case we used to change every 3-4 years . Not anymore.
Why?
Money is obviously tighter, but more importantly the Series 6 Bailey Senator Wyoming layout still suits us better than the the Unicorn Barcelona.
There are only two of us and I cannot see the point in lugging a massive fridge freezer around. That's why we prefer our Wyoming. The S5 Wyoming had the big freezer which was abandoned in the S6. So Bailey, like others keep reinventing the wheel and actually go backwards imo!! Alu-tech construction excepted.
Now if bailey gave me a choice over the size and placement of fridge I may be tempted.....

 

[colin-yorkshire1]

hi DD,
probably all of the above, but it is a matter of perspective, I think caravanning although a way of life is only a hobby after all traditional new van buyers were the ones with disposable incomes and the financialy secure sadly this customer base is shrinking, many of us oldies who once would have bought new, now think there may be better things to spend the kids inheritance on

and hold back.
also looking around the dealers recently while getting a few things for our next trip and enjoying the free coffee, were dissapointed at the lack of vison and design in all the new vans on show traditional yes but flair and new ideas no, the exeption being the alu-tech bodies " that may or may not get a grip on the old damp senario.
when I think back to us looking at vans again after 10 years in a m/home new vans were a relevation, how much improvment in equipment and storage and space in comparison to our last van was amazing, and all this in a van that weighs "HOW MUCH" and could be bought for the same price as a small car,
new vans hold nothing for us at the moment as the old "6years" one is as good as new and serves us well.
problem is I think there are a lot of old customers in the same position as us and for the rest of our vanning lives max 10years are content to keep what we have got.

 

[kopite]

hi guys
As this is still new to me i can only go on my own learning journey i have found that i enjoy the nec shows and always find a new van that i really like and will change every 3/4 years as i buy on the 10 year finance the repayments are a tenth of what i earn its a very small price to pay for the amount of enjoyment we get from thid wonderfull hobby.
i dont smoke anymore and go out once a month with friends on the beer so i can afford a new one.Maybe its my age and in a few years i will stay with one for longer but for now i`ll keep changing

 

[Royston]

Weight is my biggest problem when considering a newer van, nose and overall weights have increased, with my present Bailey van I can tow with my vectra estate, fuel consumption when towing 29 mpg .With the new range of the Bailey vans (apart from the weird shape orions)seem to have much heavier nose weights, to much for my towball max weight even when empty, have the look of prison vans with their very square outlines, and smaller windows.
I noticed quite a few of these vans down in Kent last week, because of their weights being towed with the Kia Sorento cars which have a very poor fuel consumption compared with my present car, which all adds to the cost of Caravanning.

 

[DeliDave_]

We are the same as Dustydog,King of The Woosie Round Table,got ours more or less how we want it its far from perfect but doesnt cost us much.Havent seen anything we like better unless we spend a small fortune which is not likely to happen lol

 

[woodsieboy]

We had a series 5 Wyoming with the fridge freezer and kept it longer than any other van,and we would probably have it now if Bailey and Coachman hadn't changed their models. The Alutech bodies do not appeal to me as it seems bits are stuck on afterwards, a look at the rear panel of Unicorns will show what I mean,the botom part has odd lengths of rubber sealer tape, plus there have been cases on this forum of water penetration.Coachman changed their bodyshell last year, as a result we bought a 2011 Coachman that was the older type construction and bodyshell.As to why production is down,there has been virtually no growth in the economy,and the caravan industry seems to be no different,as a family we have cut back on spending,we have booked less time away,we eat out less and this is common within our circle of friends.We have our own business, and our customers have cut back their spending,because they are seeing customers spending less,or visiting less often.The consequence is that people are cautious about spending,we no longer use credit cards,preferring to use debit cards both personally and in our business.We know where we are,and have more owing in our business than we owe to suppliers,and we have moved away from reliance on the bank for support.
I cannot see the situation improving in the short term say 3 years and despite the government lending cheap money to the banks,the business owners that we speak to are not looking to borrow to invest,nor are they looking to employ young people,the situation has been caused by mismanagement of the banks,and until confidence returns I fear that more businesses will fail, and that will mean that some caravan dealers or manufacturers and sites will be amongst those failures.

 

[ProfJohnL]

Hello Dusty and all

The news report from the NCC makes quite interesting reading. I am frankly not surprised in the quote drop in production, the industry has been highly sensitive to the level of disposable income in the country.

Just some brief pointers, with the depression came a number of redundancy and early retirements, a classic combination that raises a one off disposable income linked to increased leisure time for a socioeconomic group of people of an age to consider caravanning as a sensible(cost effective)pursuit.

This is a trend that has been seen before in the late 1970's when caravan production in the UK reached an all time high.

The production fall back is not surprising, but the other point in the report will also have made an impact.

At last, the penny is dropping!. I (amongst others) have been banging on about the lack of quality assurance, and the way the manufactures and some of their dealers fail to recognise the difficulties their failures cause to their customers. An now the the industries trade association the NCC actually puts it into a public report. Clearly this is a very significant change in the posture of the industry. Weather any of the manufactures will actually do anything about it is still to be seen, but this is a first move.

They do say that an alcoholic needs to admit they are one before the healing process can begin, so is this report the first acknowledgement of the sufferer?

 

[Dustydog]

Morning John

I wonder if the two main Clubs have seen a drop in membership?
If yes then that is worrying.
I suspect the truth is that fewer are splashing out on a new model or as I have said previously the new models are not exciting enough perhaps.
VAT at 20% is far too high.

Has Nigel D seen a drop in the sales of PCv?

 

[MichaelE]

I think the VAT at 20% is an easy target? If vans were 50K plus then yes it does start to make a difference.
I think the weather doesnt help as well as the cost of fuel. Site prices increase all the time with some being £50 - £60 a night.
People who Rally and CL are a small minority of the caravan sales overall.Caravaning is not a cheap hobby.
Last year we went to Perpingon for 16 days and overall with fuel, tolls ( not many) site fees,food and crossing we spent over £2500, this year i have had 10 days in Egypt and have 10 days in Turkey to come all inclusive for less than £2000 for both.
Look at it another way though reduced production = less vans available and less discounts?

 

[ProfJohnL]

Good morning Dusty,

I dont think club membership will be affected yet, people who have caravans will still want to use them despite the weather, and of course they will have alrady paid for tem so the VAT aspect on existing users has no effect except for running costs.
New sales will be down, but also S/H sales will begin to drop but not as rapidly as new. I don't think it necesarily that the new models are not exciting, (though what can you do witha box on wheels?) its that disposable income from redundancey and retirement packages enacted early due to the depression will be dwindling, and in general the population will be tightening their belts and making things last longer.

For anyone reading this please understand that the scenario I suggest and my perceptions of the outcomes are entirely my own. They are not based on current industry data only on prior histrory and comparisons with other British industries that have failed to understand their customer base.

I would not be suprised to see the UK industry shrink over the next two years by as much aas 35 to 40% compared to the 2011 figures. That is the equivelet to loosing one of the big manufactures. I'm not saying we will loose any of the big names, but there will be some hard times ahead for them and I think we will see some further major restructuring ahead - such as brand names disapearing or changing ownership.
The smaller caravan and motor home specialist manufacturers service a high end niche market and are not as likley to see such large scale reductions.
These are ideal conditions for the European manufactures to start looking at the UK market, look out for more continental brands across all van sizes at very keen prices in aboout 18 months.
There used to be a marketing phrase that seems to fallen into disrepute, however I think it is about time it was resurected and shoudted from the roof tops - "Customer is King" Long live the customer, for to ignore the customer, and especially the issues they have with your products is open door your competors need to tempt them away from your products.

Customers need:-
Manufacturers to design and manufacture high quality products
Products that appeal
Good value
Straight forward deals
Effective products
Product that have very low failure rates
Products that last a reasonable length of time
Dealer honesty and professionalism.
Dealers to fully understand and commit to the Sale of Goods Act in the best interests of their customers not the manufacturers.
Fast dealer and manufacturer commitment to sorting products out when they do fail
Manufacture flxibility on who can service or repair.

In the context of the caravan industry none of the above is rocket science, its good sound commercial sense, and with reliable products coming out of the factory its easier to get the rest to fall into place.

 

[Martin24]

I think the disposable income point is valid but also with interest rates so low people will either say not worth saving or hang on to every penny to try and still have some income!!! Having said that I was surprised at the number of older vans on the road yesterday compared to newer ones. We may still change this year if we like the models on offer this year from Coachman. We'll look at the other brands too but their interior solidity will need to of improved considerably, or of course Coachman's slipped?!?! Who knows we'll have to wait and see. The VAT won't make a huge difference to the decission but we would hold off if it was likely to come down, having been stung at 20% for the current van and the car this year!!!

 

[emmerson]

If less people are buying 'vans, thats good, cos it means more pitches for us oldies!

 

[ProfJohnL]

If less people are buying 'vans, thats good, cos it means more pitches for us oldies!

I know what you mean but sadly the logic dosen't quite work that way. It would only work if more people were scraping caravans than new ones being bought, which on current trends is not the case. The caravan population is continuing to grow, but just at a slower rate.
In fact the availability of pitches is likely to continue to worsen. There are far less new pitches being created than the number of new caravans being purchased, and one of the consequences of of the recession is caravan sites are closing, So I guess the number of pitches is actually reducing rather than growing. those that remain are likely to need to increase site fees to cover things like the 2.5% hike in VAT rate, increased council, energy and business overheads charges.

 

[Tony_5041742]

The disposable income/job security issues are probably factors, but the large price increases of new caravans in recent years can't have helped either. We've changed our van around every 5 years since we started caravanning back in the 80s, and based on this we were due to change earlier this year so we trawled the dealers and went to the caravan shows looking for our next van. However, the cost to change we kept being quoted was more than double what we paid when we last changed in 07, so deciding to stick with the van for a few more years was a bit of a no brainer.

 

[Dustydog]

I had a quote from Lady B Caravans to swap my 2008 Wyoming for a new Unicorn Barcelona.
All I have to do is part company with £12,700.

That makes my 2008 Wyoming worth £8,300

We have an extended Chipping Sodbury Warranty for a few more years. They are an excellent dealer who know all about good customer care.
So I ask myself is the Barcelona that much better than the Wyoming to be worth spending £12,700

.
A no brainer . We're keeping the Wyoming.

Contrary to Prof John's point I haven't noticed any recent site closures nor overcrowding nor pitch unavailability.
I have noticed however a lot of sites are offering some very good deals, like 7 nights for the price of 4 or 5 . A loss leader or a desire to manintain cash flow perhaps.
The corollary to the reduction in sales of new caravans must mean a shortage of good second hand ones which may theoretically increase the value of mine??

 

[Tony_5041742]

Yes, my experience of the potential cost to change for our 07 Swift wasn't too far away from the numbers Dustydog mentions. Think we paid around £13k for our van in 2007, was offered £7k for it against a £17k new one earlier this year hence a cost to change of £10k. Our cost to change for new in 2007 was around £5.5k, and around £4k in 2002. The new one actually feels a little cheap inside too, which made the decision to keep our money in the bank pretty easy.

 

[Tony_5041742]

Duplicate Post

 

[colin-yorkshire1]

hi all,
Ditto, I think there is a trend here, the only new van I see suitable for us at the moment should we wish to change is the new Venus range slightly larger with end bathroom same equipment and less weight -25kg over the bailey cost of change £7250. +Awning.
which makes our van worth 40% of what we paid for it in 2006 on balance probably not so bad. but considering there is nothing wrong with the bailey, £7250 worth of fuel and nights away in it are far more appealing. so we will keep what we have got and use it more.

with this trend (I make that 3 lossed sales of a new van, in two days on one forum), so taken nationwide it is easy to see why the new sales figures are down, as the Prof says things are tough at the moment they may improve in time but now is probably the best time for manufacturers to get their act togetter and solve some major isses that customers have with new vans, so when the market does pick up their customers will have a better product to buy.

 

[otherclive]

Our reason for not changing is purely down to the fact that vans have got heavier with less payload and features that we don't really need the maker to supply. We have considerd changing twice in the last three years but nothing lit our fire so the cost to change has been spent on a new bathroom and some packages to Turkey. Will go to the NEC show but not with any great expectation that I'll find the modern high quality equivalent of our 2005 Series 5 Bordeaux which is spacious only weighs 1400 kg with its payload of 250kg. Perhaps one maker might give me the option of outfit level, and payload upgrade.

 

[Raywood]

Therte appear to be a number of problems
1. the reccession, with people worried about losing their jobs or losing them and others not geeting rises to cover inflation buying a new caravan has slipped down the list of priorities, In most cases you can make the van last a year or two more if you have to.
2. Quality control has slipped bagly. The manufacturers have let this slip and many people are now put off buying new. A far better customer service is needed to deal with problems with a no quibble guarantee to get the customers confidence back. Dare any offer to replace any van that leaks within the first three years, that would improve the quality control and increase confidence. Frankly after reading customers troubles and the service given I would not even dare buy a Bailey at the moment and would look carefully before looking at the others.
3. Weights have not dropped quickly enough to match that of new cars. The light weight models being introduced at the moment are simply very basic rather than innovative, some new thinking us required.

 

[ProfJohnL]

Hello Ray,
You write:
"Quality control has slipped bagly. The manufacturers have let this slip and many people are now put off buying new. A far better customer service is needed to deal with problems with a no quibble guarantee to get the customers confidence back. "
I actually think you are being too kind to the manufacturers, From some of the stories we read on forums, some of the issues that get through from the manufacture to the end user very clearly demonstrated the enourmouse inconsistency in their manuafcturing capability. Some owners have no problems at all, but Ill wager that most new owners have some problems that need attention by the dealer, and fewer but still a significant proportion have fairly major problem(s) that need remedial work of some kind.
This state of affairs shows how ineffective manufactuers and dealers QA/QC systems are.
I agree there should be a no quibble guarantee, but it is far more cost effective and customer friendly to get it right first time. The car industry learnt that lesson, and it is now very rare to find new car that has a major fault at the point of sale, and most maintain a reliable function without major failures for several years. If a car manufacture can do that with product that has several thousand hi tec subassemblies, why can't a caravan manufacture do the same with a product that has just a fraction of the compexity?.
Some may say the scale of operation prevents the caravan manufactures from taking advantage of best practice in manufacture. I disagree. The scale will affact the parts costs, but good design is the biggest way to make inroads in to costs and reliability of a product. Qulaity has to be designed into the product and its manufacturering processes..

 

[Tony_5041742]

Tend to agree with most of what's been said so far. I've been disappointed by how expensive new caravans are at the moment, hence our decision to break from our usual replacement cycle and keep our current van for a few more years. However, I was also disappointed in other areas. I know some people liked fixed beds but they aren't for me, and it now seems very difficult to buy a traditional double (i.e. front/rear) dinette model in anything other than entry spec guise . The irony is that a few years back that was just about the only layout available!
I've also disappointed by the interior quality of modern vans, the new construction methods may or may not be a way ahead, but the interiors of some new £20k vans have moved backwards IMHO. Fit and finish, quality of wood, quality of soft furnishings - not good enough for the high price asked and from my point of view probably not as good as my last 3 caravans. And the great elephant in the room - build quality. I've had a new caravan every 5 years for the past 30 odd years. All of them had a list of defects that wouldn't have been out of place on a 70s British car. Until British caravan manufacturers up their game, or someone steps into the market as Japanese and German carmakers did in taking over the UK car market, I'll keep my money in the bank.

 

[MichaelE]

When we were at the show last year i was ummimg and arring over replacing the van? I decided to wait another year until the wife pointed out if we come back next year and buy the same van then it will be more expensive and our present van would be worth less so the cost to change would be more.
Didnt think of it that way so we decided to take the plunge, i think we have finally found a van that ticks all the boxes?

 

[Raywood]

Hello Ray,
You write:
"Quality control has slipped bagly. The manufacturers have let this slip and many people are now put off buying new. A far better customer service is needed to deal with problems with a no quibble guarantee to get the customers confidence back. "
I actually think you are being too kind to the manufacturers, From some of the stories we read on forums, some of the issues that get through from the manufacture to the end user very clearly demonstrated the enourmouse inconsistency in their manuafcturing capability. Some owners have no problems at all, but Ill wager that most new owners have some problems that need attention by the dealer, and fewer but still a significant proportion have fairly major problem(s) that need remedial work of some kind.
This state of affairs shows how ineffective manufactuers and dealers QA/QC systems are.
I agree there should be a no quibble guarantee, but it is far more cost effective and customer friendly to get it right first time. The car industry learnt that lesson, and it is now very rare to find new car that has a major fault at the point of sale, and most maintain a reliable function without major failures for several years. If a car manufacture can do that with product that has several thousand hi tec subassemblies, why can't a caravan manufacture do the same with a product that has just a fraction of the compexity?.
Some may say the scale of operation prevents the caravan manufactures from taking advantage of best practice in manufacture. I disagree. The scale will affact the parts costs, but good design is the biggest way to make inroads in to costs and reliability of a product. Qulaity has to be designed into the product and its manufacturering processes..

I fully agree with you. I may just be lucky but we have bought four new caravans and never had a serious problem but the current van is now four years old. We have looked at the current crop but have not found anything that would tempt us to swap our Avondale even if we felt we could trust the new models. If I was looking at one on a dealers forecourt I would check it with my damp meter.

 

[Gafferbill]

....welcome to the club Dusty (Alan).
No not that club.!!!

.....I mean the club where you think changing your van for a newer model would not get you a better holiday experience.
My caravan gives me great holiday experiences, has never let me down and is now an old friend.
Yes I have to keep it maintained but I also enjoy that aspect.
The warranty ran out years ago so I have been able to modify it to suit as we caravan anywhere from a field to a 5 star site!

I much prefer to spend the money I would use to upgrade on other fly away holidays.

Who knows the old Swift may see me out