EVs Then and Now.

[ProfJohnL]

Mr Average. Sorry if my wording is unclear. My point is simply if the EV used prices are today so high in relation to an ICE how will the “average “person afford a used EV when ICEs cease to be produced.
No you didn’t suggest a Leaf, hence I said it has been suggested.
The basic simple point is that ten years on an used EV remains beyond the financial reach of Mr Average.

Right now it is still more expensive to purchase an EV compared to an equivalent ICE.

The present day market for both new and secondhand cars is quite distorted due to chhip and other supply line difficulties so the price dynamics we see today are not normal. I am assuming that over the next 12 month or so the anomalies of the covid difficulties will tend to be worked out and the markets will re normalise, but not entirely, because as we have seen over the last four years an increasing proportion of new cars purchased or leased have been EV's, which means the mix of EV vs ICE cars in circulation is changing. That change will accelerate as we move forward.

It is also a fact that as more mainstream car manufacturers are bringing new EV models to market which through economies of scale and especially improving battery manufacturing techniques, the price premium for choosing electric is diminishing. This therefore going to make choosing an EV easier, and as original costs reduce, it will also drag down the value of second hand EV's which also makes them more affordable.

But it also needs prospective purchasers to look beyond the purchase price, and to consider the running costs, which is where EV's begin to fight back in the overall affordability steaks.

Obviously everyone's own calculations will be different, but all the well respected organisation who have looked at real economies of ICE vs EV or hybrids have concluded the breakeven point in terms of mileage travelled is reducing, and before much longer parity or better may be achieved at the point of purchase.

Based on what's available to day there are only a limited number of EV's that will suit existing caravanners. Either caravanners will have to look to the more expensive end of the car market to find suitable tow vehicles, or they will have to consider changing their caravan for a lighter model. Or the present day concept of touring with a caravan may need to radically change.

 

[JezzerB]

This post has nothing to do with towing with an EV. We have done that subject to death on other threads. This is about affordability of EVs when the shutter comes down on ICEs

I know. Which is why I quoted a leaf. You then told me it wasn't a touraeg which I assume brought it back to towing. Plenty of room in a leaf. You can't have it both ways but I now give in as you're clearly not understanding my point. Leafs are cheap EVs and reliable .

 

[xtrailman]

This post has nothing to do with towing with an EV. We have done that subject to death on other threads. This is about affordability of EVs when the shutter comes down on ICEs

Try looking at cheaper EV cars then not the top end ones EV cars are available under 40k.

 

[RogerL]

Just to check. You are judging the affordability of the 2nd hand EV market for Mr. Average by looking at the 2nd hand price not of an average car, but of a Luxury car, in whos top spec is the fastest accelerating mass production car ever sold? You might as well judge the 2nd hand petrol market by looking at the second hand prices of BMW M5s or Porsche 911s.
But if you look at the price of a 2nd hand leaf or ZoE, you will find a bunch of examples under 10k and a fair number under 8k.
Not many, but that’s because they didn’t sell many early on, and that makes them rare, so in demand (especially now). But they are the Mr Average cars. Not luxury super saloons.

Many of the low-price Zoe's have a leased battery which was a minimum of £50/month extra last time I checked.

10 year old EVs at £10,000 are still premium priced when there's a good selection of 10-year old IC cars under £3000 - with the low annual mileage covered by most 10-year old cars, the EVs will never recoup their price premium.

 

[Dustydog]

Right now it is still more expensive to purchase an EV compared to an equivalent ICE.

The present day market for both new and secondhand cars is quite distorted due to chhip and other supply line difficulties so the price dynamics we see today are not normal. I am assuming that over the next 12 month or so the anomalies of the covid difficulties will tend to be worked out and the markets will re normalise, but not entirely, because as we have seen over the last four years an increasing proportion of new cars purchased or leased have been EV's, which means the mix of EV vs ICE cars in circulation is changing. That change will accelerate as we move forward.

It is also a fact that as more mainstream car manufacturers are bringing new EV models to market which through economies of scale and especially improving battery manufacturing techniques, the price premium for choosing electric is diminishing. This therefore going to make choosing an EV easier, and as original costs reduce, it will also drag down the value of second hand EV's which also makes them more affordable.

But it also needs prospective purchasers to look beyond the purchase price, and to consider the running costs, which is where EV's begin to fight back in the overall affordability steaks.

Obviously everyone's own calculations will be different, but all the well respected organisation who have looked at real economies of ICE vs EV or hybrids have concluded the breakeven point in terms of mileage travelled is reducing, and before much longer parity or better may be achieved at the point of purchase.

Based on what's available to day there are only a limited number of EV's that will suit existing caravanners. Either caravanners will have to look to the more expensive end of the car market to find suitable tow vehicles, or they will have to consider changing their caravan for a lighter model. Or the present day concept of touring with a caravan may need to radically change.

Thanks Prof
A very good answer. .
My sole reason for the OP was to try and get a feel of where we will be by 2030. Looking at the various used EV markets there are not many family sized cars available today. But By 2030 if we had a crystal ball, that’s what I’m interested in.
Caravanning is not a factor on this thread for me . I will probably do the same as someone else on here suggested a while back, buy a low mileage 2029 large diesel SUV. The Tesla example only came up because they are now ten years old.

And for,the doubters I am one of the few who does believe in EV technology, now owning three😁👍

 

[Buckman]

Depends if you commute from the home counties to the city every day... Load of folks do this.

Theh they could be very foolish as public transport into London is very good and you do not have to pay to enter a charging zone LEZ?

 

[Beachball]

I know. Which is why I quoted a leaf. You then told me it wasn't a touraeg which I assume brought it back to towing. Plenty of room in a leaf. You can't have it both ways but I now give in as you're clearly not understanding my point. Leafs are cheap EVs and reliable .

I took a Nissan leaf out for a test drive i was amazed and really pleased with the acceleration

 

[Dustydog]

I took a Nissan leaf out for a test drive i was amazed and really pleased with the acceleration

BB , How did you find it for ease of access and leg room etc bearing in mind you are not short?

 

[Beachball]

BB , How did you find it for ease of access and leg room etc bearing in mind you are not short?

Hi DD the salesman put the driving seat as far as it would go and guess what the legroom was great .

 

[otherclive]

BB , How did you find it for ease of access and leg room etc bearing in mind you are not short?

I looked at a used Leaf ( generation1) when we decided our 12 year old Note was showing signs of age, plus we fancied something newer. Leaf is roomier than the Note and I am 6 ft 4 inch. If you have ever sat in a Note it’s amazingly roomy, no doubling up to get in, and rear seats that move fore and aft. But it was the Leaf’s the price and quite limited range that put us off, as we do tend to use the second smaller car as a runabout and sometimes to South Wales and Coventry on day trips. So in the end chose a Rio 1.25 which is comfortable once inside but no rear leg room behind me and in terms of packaging below the Note and Leaf, but it’s very low fuel consumption is a big plus and ULEZ compliant. But if not wanting to do longer trips we thought the Leaf a nice car. But since then Leaf’s have moved on and so has charging availability. But our budget if sub £9k ruled out a newer Gen 2 Leaf. Zoe a No No on poor primary crash resistance and range.