Is the end of diesel nigh?
- Thread starter LizziePope
- Start date
- Nov 11, 2009
- 23,562
- 8,099
- 50,935
That's a useful review of the topic which got a good Forum airing not too long ago. In a related thread a Poster has asked the question should they buy a petrol or diesel Kuga. When the fuel consumption of the 1.5 Ecoboost is less than 30 mpg solo the answer is self evident.
The answer is,No, just about starting to look for a used XTrail for next year, we are all doomed, don't buy a diesel you will kill the planet, I won't be able to hang my 'Little Princess on board' in my back window if I drive a diesel, I will have to take out of my back window ' The best Grandad in the world', this is just more rubbish being put about, why do people have to listen at everything that the media and the press put out about diesel vehicles, form your own opinion and if you can afford it buy some big yank tank five litre diesel,
Mel
Moderator
- Mar 17, 2007
- 5,936
- 1,960
- 25,935
What an informative, intelligent and balanced review. Well done Motty. I don't want to think about how old I will be in 20 years, but I suspect that retaining continence, will be more of an issue than towing a van. 
Anyway, in 20 years the Hybrid and electric technology will have come on leaps and bounds as manufacturers are forced to divert resources to R&D. I think that can only be a good thing.
mel
Anyway, in 20 years the Hybrid and electric technology will have come on leaps and bounds as manufacturers are forced to divert resources to R&D. I think that can only be a good thing.
mel
- Oct 12, 2013
- 3,037
- 4
- 0
Martin24 said:
Same as us , we've not long getting ours and we will have ours until it falls apart and that's a diesel just wait and see what happens in the future , anything can happen !!
Hi. please take a look at Cgon.co.uk as it has many of the answers to the Q being asked and answered via the web site. cheers Jrs1
Balanced review? umm well it wasn't too bad although it did miss one critical point lorries for at least 8 years have had lower emissions than the new generation of diesel cars and there testing of emissions was always tougher than the one for car manufacturers.. indeed the vast majority of diesel cars failing the nox test were cars not running ad blu! it boggles the mind why not and it boggles the mind why article after article fails to mention this! . diesel dead well yes in the same way as the petrol engine is too.. now who mentioned ford eco boost! petrol engine the car that thinks its an old diesel
- May 7, 2012
- 8,596
- 1,818
- 30,935
I suspect a lot of this is political posturing trying to keep the green brigade on side. It is true though that diesels do cause polution problems that are worse than petrol so they are going to be the ones that will be first in line for criticism.
Scrappage schemes for older diesels should help but it needs the government to make sure the old cars are scrapped an that newish second hand cars can be accepted as replacement. Owners of the older cars that are the alleged problem are unlikely to be trading up to brand new cars so a scheme for new cars seems doomed to anything other than a minimal success.
Hybrids do seem to be the way forward rather than electrics for the time being. My nephew runs one of the smaller electricity supply companies, and while he can see electric cars working for many he accepts there are technical difficulties which at the moment certainly cannot be easily addressed.
Oddly enough recharging on the road is not the problem, it is principally housing with only on street parking and the fact the local mains services simply could not handle the huge increase in the amount of power that would be needed to charge all these cars. It would be mainly off peak charging, but it would still exceed current capacity and would need a lot of roads being dug up. There are other problems as well but these should be more easily overcome.
Scrappage schemes for older diesels should help but it needs the government to make sure the old cars are scrapped an that newish second hand cars can be accepted as replacement. Owners of the older cars that are the alleged problem are unlikely to be trading up to brand new cars so a scheme for new cars seems doomed to anything other than a minimal success.
Hybrids do seem to be the way forward rather than electrics for the time being. My nephew runs one of the smaller electricity supply companies, and while he can see electric cars working for many he accepts there are technical difficulties which at the moment certainly cannot be easily addressed.
Oddly enough recharging on the road is not the problem, it is principally housing with only on street parking and the fact the local mains services simply could not handle the huge increase in the amount of power that would be needed to charge all these cars. It would be mainly off peak charging, but it would still exceed current capacity and would need a lot of roads being dug up. There are other problems as well but these should be more easily overcome.
hi dustrydog The main reason is and has always been manufacturers trying to get away with as much as possible mainly by bending rules i stress bending rules because the powers that be make it easy for them to do so. Lorries are tested on the road so therefore must comply with whatever new emission requirements are in force. cars were lab tested and have been for as long as i remember back into the 80s its farcical really.. yes the car manufactures can and will bring down the NOX diesel cars spew out and actually have been doing so but not as much as was believed.. bare in mind taxation and the likes was based on CO and not NOX so the money was in making cars with low CO outputs better mpg less CO better for the environment and lower taxation better for the punter... as for electric powered cars well by the time there in full swing some 20 years down the line ill be 75 so wont care, for now diesels are fine they are not going to disappear just yet but no doubt the powers that be will find new ways to tax them higher than petrol engines. until some smart ass piont out how forced induction petrol's are also breaking their set targets for NOX...
Dustydog said:I wonder what will happen to the Motorhomes
Most are based on Fiat diesels.
my motorhome was a 6 cylinder non turbo VW if I was still running it. it would cost £250 for the road tax and whatever the fuel duty is on a litre of fuel to go 5 miles. no thanks.
I will stick to my 12 year old diesel car. for as long as it runs. and the tree huggers can go carry on walking if they wish. to make up the difference.
- Mar 14, 2005
- 18,674
- 3,931
- 50,935
In response to Rays comment about the power grid not being able to handle the exta demand if every one were to plug their electric cars in to recharge at the same time, a lot of work is being done in the field of "smart charging". This is where the plugged vehicles will not draw their maximum current when there is high demand on the grid. This will even out the demand. In addition there are concepts where the vehicles that are plugged in and are close to or fully charged may deliver some power back to the grid at times of peak demand, to ease the load on the generators.
Most ordinary domestic supplies are rated by the incoming supply fuse to 100A. In practice the peak load will be around breakfast and early evening when cookers kettles and electric showered are used. That may be a peak power of about or 60A, and the grid power lines don't melt, so whilst the generators may struggle to match the demand, the actual wires can handle it. The biggest domestic car chargers are unlikely to be need more than 32A and often will only be 13A, so it's not going to test the Wireing in most houses and localities
There is also the Tesla power wall concept, where properties will have a battery pack, which can be charged from solar or off peak power, and that then provides the power to charge the car, or as above help relieve the generators peak demand.
In many ways the generators will like the idea of smart charging, as it will even out the demand, (and of course they will make more money)
There are definitely challenges ahead; there may be infrastructure problems in some locations, but the biggest difficulty will be changing the publics mind set about how we use, make and store electricity.
Most ordinary domestic supplies are rated by the incoming supply fuse to 100A. In practice the peak load will be around breakfast and early evening when cookers kettles and electric showered are used. That may be a peak power of about or 60A, and the grid power lines don't melt, so whilst the generators may struggle to match the demand, the actual wires can handle it. The biggest domestic car chargers are unlikely to be need more than 32A and often will only be 13A, so it's not going to test the Wireing in most houses and localities
There is also the Tesla power wall concept, where properties will have a battery pack, which can be charged from solar or off peak power, and that then provides the power to charge the car, or as above help relieve the generators peak demand.
In many ways the generators will like the idea of smart charging, as it will even out the demand, (and of course they will make more money)
There are definitely challenges ahead; there may be infrastructure problems in some locations, but the biggest difficulty will be changing the publics mind set about how we use, make and store electricity.
- Mar 8, 2009
- 1,851
- 334
- 19,935
This 'dinosaur' is yet to be convinced it'll happen, (+ the fact I'll be 97 in 2040, so if you remember then, remember I told you so!)) with something like 90% of the rest of the world not doing alot, if anything to contribute! - Until the Chinas, Asia, N. America, S. America, Australasia, and most of Europe and anywhere else commit to anything approaching a serious contribution then our expensive forceput will probably put us at serious commercial disadvantage in the real world. At the moment I hear/see it as 'pie in the sky' political soundbites! - And let's face it politicians are not the brightest 'race' in the world they struggle to get a grasp of the basics of real life.
- Nov 11, 2009
- 23,562
- 8,099
- 50,935
We'll my father is 95 and still driving so don't write yourself off too early. You may be driving some form of electric vehicle by then! You should look at what China is doing regarding electric cars and their introduction. It's causing the German car makers some angst as their ranges don't fit into China's regulations regarding the percentage of electric cars to be introduced, not in 2040, but now.
- Nov 11, 2009
- 23,562
- 8,099
- 50,935
You should be very careful where you put your coffe or drinks otherwise you may have a shocking experience!!!
- Mar 14, 2005
- 18,674
- 3,931
- 50,935
Hello Gabs,
I think you may have gained the wrong impression about 2040. All that is a date at which point the UK gov't (and some other around the world) have said they will no longer allow pure petrol or diesel vehicle to be mass produced. But it isn't going be like a switch from one to the other on the first of January 2040. there will be a change in the balance of IC to other forms of motive power. It has already started, so it is likely to have an increasing impact on everybody, one way or another.
I predict the in 5 years time we will see about 20% of new car sales being eco (either Hybrids or full electrics or possibly hydrogen) and year on year that figure will increase and by the time we reach 2039 I would expect to see effectively all new cars being electric. And that proportion will only grow bigger.
The other thing to remember is in the period up to 2040, non IC motive power solutions will be continually developed and improved. I can't predict in detail how those improvements will progress, but I do think there will be some major battery developments, not only in the storage capacity of batteries to increase available range, but also in recharging times. Hydrogen will continue to be developed who knows what other so far undiscovered ideas may come to fruition.
There is always resistance to change, but change will always happen.
I think you may have gained the wrong impression about 2040. All that is a date at which point the UK gov't (and some other around the world) have said they will no longer allow pure petrol or diesel vehicle to be mass produced. But it isn't going be like a switch from one to the other on the first of January 2040. there will be a change in the balance of IC to other forms of motive power. It has already started, so it is likely to have an increasing impact on everybody, one way or another.
I predict the in 5 years time we will see about 20% of new car sales being eco (either Hybrids or full electrics or possibly hydrogen) and year on year that figure will increase and by the time we reach 2039 I would expect to see effectively all new cars being electric. And that proportion will only grow bigger.
The other thing to remember is in the period up to 2040, non IC motive power solutions will be continually developed and improved. I can't predict in detail how those improvements will progress, but I do think there will be some major battery developments, not only in the storage capacity of batteries to increase available range, but also in recharging times. Hydrogen will continue to be developed who knows what other so far undiscovered ideas may come to fruition.
There is always resistance to change, but change will always happen.
- Mar 8, 2009
- 1,851
- 334
- 19,935
Not resistant to change, after all I drive a diesel! Changed from petrol several years ago. But politics will be involved, and can you see us upsetting Arab oil producing states, (does central heating oil burners get included, and of course the massive polluting aircraft industry will need some very long leads! ) Vested interests will prove a great obstacle to getting rid of oil burning equipment! And the amount of times our 'representatives' get it wrong, there'll be a policy change within 10 years. We were running out of oil in the 70's, (according to the experts) and there would be none left by the 90's. We were then going to get frazzled by the loss of the ozone layer, (don't hear much about that now.) And then it was global warming and ice caps melting, now that's been changed to climate change as that covers more. (Now hasn't there been a few climate changes over the last million years or two.) Along while before ic engines. Cynical? --- Yep!
- May 7, 2012
- 8,596
- 1,818
- 30,935
Hi Prof. The charging points you mention will help, but from what I am told the sheer amount of power that will be needed will almost certainly exceed the capacity of the mains supply even allowing for these. I understand the charging capacity should be there but getting it to you is where the problem is.
Charging during the night is preferred as that is when normal usage is lowest and those of us on offpeak contracts will find it half the price, so daytime charging of a battery pack might not work either. It is something that could be a major problem.
How you supply housing without drives or garages is a problem as in these areas it seems inevitable that some power supply will have to be added to the streets, at considerable cost and doing this without leaving cables everywhere also needs to be addressed.
A problem that has arisen in Glasgow though is people drive to work and then put the car on a charging point and leave it all day, preventing others getting to it and a time limit has to be imposed but that means the driver has then to leave work and move the car which might also be problematic. It is not insurmountable but things keep cropping up that makes life more difficult.
Charging during the night is preferred as that is when normal usage is lowest and those of us on offpeak contracts will find it half the price, so daytime charging of a battery pack might not work either. It is something that could be a major problem.
How you supply housing without drives or garages is a problem as in these areas it seems inevitable that some power supply will have to be added to the streets, at considerable cost and doing this without leaving cables everywhere also needs to be addressed.
A problem that has arisen in Glasgow though is people drive to work and then put the car on a charging point and leave it all day, preventing others getting to it and a time limit has to be imposed but that means the driver has then to leave work and move the car which might also be problematic. It is not insurmountable but things keep cropping up that makes life more difficult.
- Mar 14, 2005
- 18,674
- 3,931
- 50,935
Raywood said:
That would be thecase if all cars were electric and they all connected NOW, but it is not the situation.
That is why smart charging is being suggested. This limits the charge fed to car until there is capacity to satisfy it. Its not the cable infrastructure that's lacking its the generating power plant. And by introducing battery packs (e.g Tesla power Wall) the peak demands can be flattened
Raywood said:
I never said it would be easy, there will be challenges, but given time and the current impetus of the government announcement , there will be solutions found that work, but we may have to change our thinking.
Facebook
Twitter