Leaving the EU

[ProfJohnL]

Can I remind posters that my question was not a political one, but was about how the UK caravan industry may fair. At least a few of you have at least adhered to the theme of the topic.

 

[Dustydog]

Hi Prof
Do you agree with me that Al-ko Truma and many other European manufacturers will beg to continue supplying parts to the UK Caravan Industry.
I believe the Industry will continue to thrive

 

[JonnyG]

I do hope the industry thrives. Now here is an alternative view where the world simply does not revolve around us. Ever considered the British caravan industry will beg to still be able to use the likes of Al ko truma ect ect? The need is both ways it's just a matter of who's needs is greater to whom. Do I seriously have to re remind everyone of our car manufacturering industry bragging as we entered the 70s. This is about learning from history and not about doom and gloom. Whatever happened to common sense and it's better to be safe than sorry!

 

[chrisbee1]

I do hope the industry thrives. Now here is an alternative view where the world simply does not revolve around us. Ever considered the British caravan industry will beg to still be able to use the likes of Al ko truma ect ect? The need is both ways it's just a matter of who's needs is greater to whom. Do I seriously have to re remind everyone of our car manufacturering industry bragging as we entered the 70s. This is about learning from history and not about doom and gloom. Whatever happened to common sense and it's better to be safe than sorry!

I don't think the caravan industry is run (and therefor ruined) by the unions the way the car industry was.

 

[Mel]

Can I remind posters that my question was not a political one, but was about how the UK caravan industry may fair. At least a few of you have at least adhered to the theme of the topic.

Thing is Prof, as your question is an economic one; I am not sure how you can fully separate it from the current political one. If one tries to answer the question by using all the information we have been given by the Remain and Leave camps, which of course was contradictory and in some cases downright untrue or hysterical, then the answer to your question has to be Nobody Knows. At this stage when markets are in turmoil, article 50 has yet to be signed, no trade agreements are in place, and Scotland about to launch a referendum that will undoubtedly mean the breakup of the Union; the only way to answer is to view the evidence of Remain or Brexitor and pick one as being more salient. This then puts the question back into the political.

In the fullness of time when it will be much clearer whether we have voted ourselves out of the frying pan,into the fire, or freed ourselves in a single bound, will it be possible to have a view which transcends the current political divide. ( Of course there is a philosophical view that all questions and all answers are "political", but that debate may be a little abstruse for this thread).
Mel

 

[JonnyG]

I do hope the industry thrives. Now here is an alternative view where the world simply does not revolve around us. Ever considered the British caravan industry will beg to still be able to use the likes of Al ko truma ect ect? The need is both ways it's just a matter of who's needs is greater to whom. Do I seriously have to re remind everyone of our car manufacturering industry bragging as we entered the 70s. This is about learning from history and not about doom and gloom. Whatever happened to common sense and it's better to be safe than sorry!

I don't think the caravan industry is run (and therefor ruined) by the unions the way the car industry was.

fair point.. the blame game , i recall quality and poor management more than played a part.,taking their eyes off the opposition and ignoring that threat .and of course working to..short term profits . oh hang on i'm now also talking about the collapse of the motorcycle industry too!....people give the unions far to much credit.....

 

[Parksy]

Can I remind posters that my question was not a political one, but was about how the UK caravan industry may fair. At least a few of you have at least adhered to the theme of the topic.

Fair point Prof, but the title of your topic covers a very wide ranging and continuing debate or discussion and the decision regarding our membership of the EU couldn't be more political .
Apologies if my responses to various points which are raised are not to everyone's taste but I'm not aware of any forum rule which compels contributors to stick strictly to the 'theme' of a topic. If such a rule or custom were in place, dare I suggest that you yourself would have fallen foul of it on numerous occasions when various wide ranging technical discussions take place on this forum, but most forum debates and discussions have continued to their conclusion in the face of complaints from those who wish to become self appointed censors.

 

[Parksy]

thank you , of course not that i can entirely agree on many of the things you state but indeed everything is measured and viewed from differing stand points , i mean our rail network like so many failings we have is in part due to us or our governments that we vote for. Also Mussolini? not even going to go there apart from my 2 sets of grandparents view him differently one being from the north of Italy the others from the south!..north south divide and all ... but interestingly this discussion had me thinking and checking just how much data is available from news feed and internet searches that only reports negativity of the EU its far more difficult to find positive,not because there isnt any info, the negative stuff is repeated in such large numbers as to hide the good stuff,but you could say that about almost anything...but can i make one correction..we have not left the EU our intention is to invoke article 50 ,as yet that has not happened nor is it likely for 3 months,this in itself i find strange . as the rumblings continue all over these great isles.. as i am sure you are aware a referendum does not have any legal status and this has been reported by all news feed it takes an act of parliament to change law .although i believe something was indeed done in 2015 to change that, for this referendum , not found any news reports to confirm this either. one last thing "Parliament privilege" not for one moment do i foresee this happening but a challenge could be entered using "Parliament privilege" given apparently 70% of MPs are for staying and we are into some incredible times, Scotland trying for another referendum ,i'm still struggling to get to grips that they actually had one..London the powerhouse of Great Britain not at all happy even Cameroon resigning .ok not a fan but he is the PM ? yes times are changing and frankly anybody merely thinking well we have had a referendum thats it ,umm lets hope so .. but then isn't that what was said after the last referendum back in 1975? and that wasnt the last word ,dont think this is either if you actually look at whats happening...

Here's a view from a well respected Italian journalist that you may or may not agree with

 

[GrahamE]

More negativity than positive, Sounds familiar. That's what the media do most of the time because that's what catches the publics attention( and the political party mud slingers) and sell their product along with sensational head lines. But going back to the Prof's original post If we want or need something then surely we will still buy it although from outside the UK No one moans about products bought from outside Europe such as your Apple iPhone, iPad or HP laptop. Yes we might pay more but we all did that at one time, and who knows we may even start to manufacture caravan chassis over here to the same quality or even under license from the likes of ALko but who knows its going to be a couple of years before it all gets sorted.

 

[JonnyG]

hi parsky you do know i would eventually get in trouble for going on and on.but thank you for your informed input.
i will finish yes nothing else from me after this post if you google good old paolo ... you will find that due to data protection bla bla bla .google hands being tied there is huge chunks missing about this head doctor ..but one economical point i will mention .market share . yes ours, the EU's market share has indeed shrank and will keep shrinking. as a lover of maths to me this is obvious .China India Malaysia Brazil ect ect. are expanding at a bigger rate than the market can in other words a slice of the pie is obvious going to shrink but by how much,is anyone guess. i say this because the shrinking slice of the cake seems to be being used as a reference for how things are bad..again thank you and indeed sorry to those who didnt really want any of this posted....shutting it..

 

[Parksy]

Thank you for an informed intelligent discussion Jonny, I'll go back to shouting at the tv during BBC Question Time now :evil:

 

[ProfJohnL]

Can I remind posters that my question was not a political one, but was about how the UK caravan industry may fair. At least a few of you have at least adhered to the theme of the topic.

Thing is Prof, as your question is an economic one; I am not sure how you can fully separate it from the current political one. If one tries to answer the question by using all the information we have been given by the Remain and Leave camps, which of course was contradictory and in some cases downright untrue or hysterical, then the answer to your question has to be Nobody Knows. At this stage when markets are in turmoil, article 50 has yet to be signed, no trade agreements are in place, and Scotland about to launch a referendum that will undoubtedly mean the breakup of the Union; the only way to answer is to view the evidence of Remain or Brexitor and pick one as being more salient. This then puts the question back into the political.

In the fullness of time when it will be much clearer whether we have voted ourselves out of the frying pan,into the fire, or freed ourselves in a single bound, will it be possible to have a view which transcends the current political divide. ( Of course there is a philosophical view that all questions and all answers are "political", but that debate may be a little abstruse for this thread).
Mel

Thank you Mel for a well argued response.

Whilst I agree that our fortunes will ultimately rely on political decisions, I think we can transcend the political arguments when looking at the future of our caravan industry.

It seems that if you look around most of the world at the moment most caravan industries are largely indigenous. with only small proportions of export/import. There are several reasons for this, but mainly there are local requirements which don't always translate well into other counties markets. So producing export models is usually involves quite a lot of additional cost, making export models less attractive to the bulk markets in other countries. Exports therefore tend to be niche market product with a premium price.

Even with the EU in place if you look at the UK market the percentage of imported models sold is very low, and most are niche products such as the big luxury vans or the super small lightweight - Yes I do acknowledge the like a Adria who compete in the mass market, but such examples are few.

So as it adds up at the moment, I don't see big changes for the UK manufacturers. Even if article 50 is enacted ( and there is no certainty that it will be as the referendum does not carry legal force to exit the EU) UK manufactures will still be able to buy all the bits they currently do from the EU, but they may cost more.

And the same conditions will apply to UK exporting to other trade areas like the EU we will still have to produce products that comply with local standards, But the big thing may be that EU import duties will be applied to the products will push up customer prices further are our products good enough to justify this hike?

So my current crystal ball reading of the future (if we actually leave the EU) ignoring any other financial effects of leaving the EU.is uk caravan manufactures will find manufacturing costs will rise due to duty on imported products, exports will reduce, but the loss of those sales may well be offset by the fact importing caravans will be more expensive shifting customers back to UK built products.

The danger of this situation is that without the benchmark of alternative usually better specified product from abroad, UK manufactures will not be as diligent (Cough Cough) with product quality as the are now and we may well see a decline in customer satisfaction. - Can it get any lower? :blink:

 

[Raywood]

In the short term prices will go up because the majority of bits are imported but any that are then exported should get a price advantage abroad. If there is any problem with finance or loss of confidence then it might hit sales particularly if prices rise but only time will tell on that one.
Imported caravans might become more expensive but it depends on how the manufacturers view the market and if they are willing to cut profits to maintain sales.
It will be interesting to see if Knaus keep up there current interest in sales here.

 

[Gafferbill]

.......so have I got this right?

We had a referendum where a small majority of people in England and Wales decided that the whole of the United Kingdom should leave the EU.
Most of the people that decided to leave were over 60 years old with limited time left to enjoy any kind of future whatsoever, let alone worry about who had sovereign control of the Country or about the state of the Disunited Kingdom caravan industry.

 

[Raywood]

Thanks for telling me I had only a limited time left! That applies to us all but some more than others though.

 

[Gabsgrandad]

There seems to be a move to make Brexit an ageist conflict. They point out that Britain's youth voted us in with a 2/3 majority in 1975, but that Britain's elderly voted us out this week effectively shafting the youth.
What they neither say nor realise is that those elderly were the enthusiastic youth of 1975, now armed to the teeth with 41 years worth of hindsight and experience. And realising then that it was a common market we voted for, not a common politic, why would anyone want an extra layer of career politicians telling us what to do.and our local politicians powerless to do any thing about it. No I am not anti Europe I am against a 1 state Europe. No problem at all with a Common Market, but a common government -- no thank you - as the majority of this kingdom also think.
Stop winging!

 

[Dustydog]

1975 Je l'ai dit NON.
2016 Je l'ai dit NON.

 

[Gafferbill]

Stop winging!

.........I don't do winging or to be more precise whinging!

I personally will always succeed regardless of what any politian may throw at me wherever they may gather.
All the people I know who are under 40 years old are completely dismayed at leaving the EU and can't understand where us Baby Boomers are coming from.
I just happen to agree with their point of view.

 

[Mel]

Stop winging!

.........I don't do winging or to be more precise whinging!

I personally will always succeed regardless of what any politian may throw at me wherever they may gather.
All the people I know who are under 40 years old are completely dismayed at leaving the EU and can't understand where us Baby Boomers are coming from.
I just happen to agree with their point of view.

Me too, Gafferbill, me too.
Mel

 

[Gabsgrandad]

"Winging" - "Whinging" -- Isn't that whinging"?

 

[Parksy]

Both sides of the agenda now need to unite, so that if and when our respective political leadership of the main parties resolve their current difficulties we can ensure that Britain emerges from future negotiations in a strong position to trade with our European friends and allies along with the rest of the world on terms which benefit all of us.
We also need to present a united front against the reported instances of racism that appear to have been perpetrated by a minority of moronic cretins, and for the unwashed violent militants who feel unable to accept the result of a democratic vote to be marginalised and dealt with as severely as the idiots convicted of racism are dealt with.

 

[Dustydog]

I see some further analysis has been done on the voting percentages.
Taking all the voting areas,
Overall 68% leave.32% remain .

 

[Parksy]

Stop winging!

.........I don't do winging or to be more precise whinging!

I personally will always succeed regardless of what any politician may throw at me wherever they may gather.
All the people I know who are under 40 years old are completely dismayed at leaving the EU and can't understand where us Baby Boomers are coming from.
I just happen to agree with their point of view.

I concur with your statement regarding the our noble weathering of the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune that may come our way as a result of political activity Bill, but I am bemused at the dismay felt by the younger generation.
The fact is that around 64% of 18-24 year olds couldn't be bothered to vote for either side, yet they seem to be the ones who are doing most of the complaining.
Surely no sane group of young people would consider embracing an authoritarian undemocratic European superstate dominated by Germany?
...............Oh, wait a minute.......... :evil: :evil: :evil:
It's surreal watching footage of the very same so-called anti-capitalist anarchists, wearing masks and dark glasses, who regularly smash the windows of commercial premises in London and other cities currently protesting because they want to remain as part of a globalist capitalist empire run for the benefit of a fabulously wealthy elite.
Young students who claim to be 'educated' but who have the common sense of the average goldfish are literally shedding tears and blaming older wiser people, presumably because the educated young think that democracy is so unfair!
Do they not know that the EU, despite is arguably marginal benefits, is failing in the case of poorer southern European states?
Italy has around 37% youth unemployment.
Spain has 45% youth unemployment
Greece has 50% youth unemployment
And Generation Snowflake wonder where us Baby Boomers are coming from?
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

 

[Mel]

Both sides of the agenda now need to unite, so that if and when our respective political leadership of the main parties resolve their current difficulties we can ensure that Britain emerges from future negotiations in a strong position to trade with our European friends and allies along with the rest of the world on terms which benefit all of us.
We also need to present a united front against the reported instances of racism that appear to have been perpetrated by a minority of moronic cretins, and for the unwashed violent militants who feel unable to accept the result of a democratic vote to be marginalised and dealt with as severely as the idiots convicted of racism are dealt with.

i

Couldn't agree more with this post. The point is nobody lost. We live in a democracy and a democratic decision has been made. How can democracy be a position of win and lose. Personally I wish more folks had agreed with me, but they didn't. This doesn't make me wrong or them right. We had differing views and we took a vote and now we should go with the majority and work together to get the show back on the road. Demonising folks who voted one way or another isn't helpful. Let's stand up against those who are using it as a platform for hatred though. Hope it all moves on positively soon.
Chilcott out next week though.
Mel

 

[Gabsgrandad]

Here here Mel, no victory crowing no sour grapes - just lets get on with it. (PS the professionals ie politicians seem to be struggling with it!) (OK Bill I've checked my spelling!)