The Caravan Market post Brexit.

[Dustydog]

Looking good.
http://www.caravantimes.co.uk/news/industry/coachman-sales-increase-$21388711.htm?source=newsletter
Quality producer Coachman is now part European owned. Edward Hymer own Elddis.
Is this good for us punters

 

[otherclive]

Hymer will bring some much needed design and build acumen. I think the problem with caravans is if tariffs are introduced so many caravan parts and assemblies are sourced in Europe. Unlike car parts caravan parts could be affected by tariffs. So caravan costs would undoubtedly increase and if the pound slumped it would exacerbate the effect. Whether production and labour costs were directly or indirectly affected remains to be seen.

 

[Dustydog]

Interesting take Clive.
Ignoring the politics, I do not believe an EU manufacturer will want to lose any part of their Uk market. The same goes for the German car industry who export more to the UK than most.
I suspect many caravan part suppliers will be able to sell via their UK office avoiding tariffs, hopefully. The corollary is that many UK companies have opened offices in the EU to avoid tariff payments. Early days yet

 

[ProfJohnL]

Interesting take Clive.
Ignoring the politics, I do not believe an EU manufacturer will want to lose any part of their Uk market. The same goes for the German car industry who export more to the UK than most.
I suspect many caravan part suppliers will be able to sell via their UK office avoiding tariffs, hopefully.

The corollary is that many UK companies have opened offices in the EU to avoid tariff payments. Early days yet

Simply opening an office will not be enough to stop tariffs being imposed, Tariffs are imposed on goods crossing boarders usually based on the type and value of the goods in question.

It works both ways, Take BMW for instance and their Mini. If by volume they sell more abroad than in the UK, tariffs will make their sales costs rise elsewhere - the solution is move production out of the UK, service their bigger market by producing inside the EU so no tariffs will be applied except to exports to the UK, and the smaller UK market will have to suffer the increased prices. The same argument will be applied to all multinational companies who currently operate within the UK.

The UK caravan market (despite Coachmans good fortunes) is presently shrinking. Whether this is a Brexit effect I don't know, but I do assume it is partly to blame. Kabe is Norwegian, and Norway is not technically in the EU, though it does operate a customs union with the EU meaning they are tied to the EU as far as international trade is concerned, and they would have to adopt the same trading arrangements with the UK as the rest of Europe.

By taking a share of Coachman, and it seems being involved with introducing some Kabe models to the UK through coachman, the only way they could avoid finished goods tariffs would be to either provide knocked down kits or to build in the UK. The link with Coachman might offer that prospect.

 

[Dustydog]

Here’s an interesting take on the BMW Mini crankshaft.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/mar/03/brexit-uk-car-industry-mini-britain-eu

 

[otherclive]

Here’s an interesting take on the BMW Mini crankshaft.

]https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/mar/03/brexit-uk-car-industry-mini-britain-eu

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/mar/03/brexit-uk-car-industry-mini-britain-eu[/quote
Its been publicised for quite a while how interlinked the UK car market is with Europe, and that article is over two years old and that would be one reason why the HMG decided not to place tariffs on car parts, as a gesture (weak one) to supporting the UK car industry post any no deal Brexit. But I suspect that it would do nothing other than delay the second demise of the UK 's car industry. The first being caused by poor quality and bad labour relations.

But no such gesture has been made to the plethora of other products that are interlinked with Europe.

Still the people have spoken as is their democratic right.

 

[Raywood]

From what I have seen the Hymer purchase of Eldiss has made no real difference to the product although behind the scenes it might have helped them put some price pressure on suppliers. There is very little competition for the supply of most bits though so with very little choice this may not be that big a point.
Hymer having bought Eldiss then seem to have been busy selling themselves so I suspect that they probably had little time to do a lot at Eldiss and the long term effect will be seen later. From a UK point of view is the group have several plants around Europe and the long term future of the Eldiss plant could be at risk if they decide to consolidate building locations. That does apply to all Hymer plants however.

The Coachman story is a little different in that it is not a takeover but the purchase of a minority interest. Again it might just mean joint negotiation for parts but I think the low percentage of the business sold cannot have a major effect.

 

[Buckman]

I don't think Hymer own Elddis any longer as Hymer have been bought out by an American company?

As for Brexit, sanctions were imposed by Western countries on other countries including fuel embargoes but these countries thrived with low unemployment so Brexit should not be an issue!

 

[Dustydog]

I don't think Hymer own Elddis any longer as Hymer have been bought out by an American company?

As for Brexit, sanctions were imposed by Western countries on other countries including fuel embargoes but these countries thrived with low unemployment so Brexit should not be an issue!

Last September Thor of USA bought the entire Hymer Group which does include Elddis. The idea is to create a Global RV organisation. I wonder why Hymer bought Elddis and sold out to the Yanks so quickly. Time will tell.

 

[otherclive]

I don't think Hymer own Elddis any longer as Hymer have been bought out by an American company?

As for Brexit, sanctions were imposed by Western countries on other countries including fuel embargoes but these countries thrived with low unemployment so Brexit should not be an issue!

Which countries “thrived”. I don’t recall Rhodesia (now Zimbabwe) or South Africa doing so great. And RoK,Russia and Iran aren’t exactly booming. So which countries are you referring to?

 

[Dodger524]

Brexit is far from a done deal.

 

[ProfJohnL]

Last September Thor of USA bought the entire Hymer Group which does include Elddis. The idea is to create a Global RV organisation. I wonder why Hymer bought Elddis and sold out to the Yanks so quickly. Time will tell.

It would be interesting to know the details, but I strongly suspect we will never have the opportunity to see accurate records of their reasoning.

I can only speculate, but setting up such a deal is an extraordinarily long process. There will have been talks going on for at least 12 months with evidence being kept to show that proper due diligence has taken place, that correct valuations of assets, both tangible and intangible, have been made, Pensions provisions have to be shown to have taken precedence over profit, and the monopolies and mergers commission has to be satisfied the deals doesn't contravene government policies on free competitive markets.

It would not surprise me if Hymer's purchase of Elldis was a strategic prerequisite for the later sale of Hymer.

 

[Parksy]

I don't think Hymer own Elddis any longer as Hymer have been bought out by an American company?

As for Brexit, sanctions were imposed by Western countries on other countries including fuel embargoes but these countries thrived with low unemployment so Brexit should not be an issue!

Which countries “thrived”. I don’t recall Rhodesia (now Zimbabwe) or South Africa doing so great. And RoK,Russia and Iran aren’t exactly booming. So which countries are you referring to?

Political discourse is outside the remit of this forum.
There's no problem with discussion regarding the potential effects of Brexit on the UK caravan industry but wider political issues must be discussed elsewhere thanks

 

[otherclive]

I don't think Hymer own Elddis any longer as Hymer have been bought out by an American company?

As for Brexit, sanctions were imposed by Western countries on other countries including fuel embargoes but these countries thrived with low unemployment so Brexit should not be an issue!

Which countries “thrived”. I don’t recall Rhodesia (now Zimbabwe) or South Africa doing so great. And RoK,Russia and Iran aren’t exactly booming. So which countries are you referring to?

Political discourse is outside the remit of this forum.
There's no problem with discussion regarding the potential effects of Brexit on the UK caravan industry but wider political issues must be discussed elsewhere thanks

Thanks for the reminder Parksy I will be more discerning in future and resist the temptation to respond to non relevant posts.

 

[Raywood]

An interesting thought that the Eldiss purchase was required as part of the Hymer takeover. My feeling was that the problem for the smaller companies was that the size of Swift and Bailey gave them a price advantage when buying parts and the Hymer purchase and Coachman partial sale would give them a better bargaining position.

 

[ProfJohnL]

An interesting thought that the Eldiss purchase was required as part of the Hymer takeover. My feeling was that the problem for the smaller companies was that the size of Swift and Bailey gave them a price advantage when buying parts and the Hymer purchase and Coachman partial sale would give them a better bargaining position.

I haven't looked at the figures, but I suspect that the Hymer group prior to purchasing Coachman was already big enough to command very similar if not bigger discounts from suppliers to those the other large UK producers could achieve.

Strategically it would benefit Coachman more than Hymer in regards supplies. I feel its unlikely a company as big as Hymer would have sold out unwillingly, so its more likely Hymer's owner was looking to retire and was looking for a buyer.

As I suggested previously such buy outs are quite a protracted process, and it would not surprise me if talks with Thor started over two years ago even before the Brexit vote. Looking at Thor's portfolio, they have been actively growing through acquisitions, and spreading their interests world wide. They will have looked at the Europe and UK, and seen both have a respectable leisure market, but the growing uncertainty over Brexit even before the referendum would make them wary about taking a direct interest in a UK business.

Thor would have been looking at Hymer and thinking they have good continental coverage, but weak in the UK, I'd also bet Thor were aware of Coachman's position and thinking good but small in the UK and weak in Europe. Two companies that are a cut above the bargain basement producers and to a large extent natural bed fellows - better and stronger together with a foothold in both EU and UK a strategic route to both markets what ever way the Brexit referendum goes.

It would be legally simpler for Hymer to buy Coachman as presently both companies reside within the EU, and then just one negotiation to purchase Hymer.

Ill repeat this is just speculation, but........PJL

 

[Buckman]

[

Thanks for the reminder Parksy I will be more discerning in future and resist the temptation to respond to non relevant posts.

What is non relevant about Britain doing better away from the EU and having closed borders? We will still be able to travel to the EU with no problem except imagined problems. Our cash will be welcomed there so I cannot see any meaningful changes. IMHO we may the first of many countries to take this route.

 

[Raywood]

Hi Prof, I was really thinking that the Hymer takeover of Eldiss would benefit Eldiss rather than Hymer. It does give Hymer a bit more clout but Eldiss presumably can now use the Hymer bargaining power, although there does not seem to be a lot of evidence so far, and it may be the Eldiss takeover was indeed to give the purchasers of Hymer a British foothold. Given the size of the British market a base here might be something the Americans thought they needed.

 

[Buckman]

I don't think Hymer own Elddis any longer as Hymer have been bought out by an American company?

As for Brexit, sanctions were imposed by Western countries on other countries including fuel embargoes but these countries thrived with low unemployment so Brexit should not be an issue!

Which countries “thrived”. I don’t recall Rhodesia (now Zimbabwe) or South Africa doing so great. And RoK,Russia and Iran aren’t exactly booming. So which countries are you referring to?

Political discourse is outside the remit of this forum.
There's no problem with discussion regarding the potential effects of Brexit on the UK caravan industry but wider political issues must be discussed elsewhere thanks

Thanks for the reminder Parksy I will be more discerning in future and resist the temptation to respond to non relevant posts.

Not sure what happened to my post but unsure why you think my post was irrelevant as it is very relevant to the market after Brexit as Britain can survive without the EU?

 

[Parksy]

On 23rd March I wrote a polite reminder to forum members to state that wider political discourse has no place on this caravan forum.

Quote: 'Political discourse is outside the remit of this forum.
There's no problem with discussion regarding the potential effects of Brexit on the UK caravan industry but wider political issues must be discussed elsewhere thanks'

The majority of forum users have respected my reminder, and have refrained from engaging in discussions within this thread with regard to the merits or otherwise of Britain's EU membership.
Unfortunately one particular member has taken it upon himself to completely ignore my request.
The member involved has persistently attempted to provoke further political discussion and had also included quotes containing earlier political pint scoring that I had previously removed.
The latest attempt has again been taken down from the message boards and the forum member involved has brought about a suspension of his membership account of one week for his obvious contempt for the rules of this forum.

 

[ProfJohnL]

Hi Prof, I was really thinking that the Hymer takeover of Eldiss would benefit Eldiss rather than Hymer. It does give Hymer a bit more clout but Eldiss presumably can now use the Hymer bargaining power, although there does not seem to be a lot of evidence so far, and it may be the Eldiss takeover was indeed to give the purchasers of Hymer a British foothold. Given the size of the British market a base here might be something the Americans thought they needed.

Thank you Ray,

Yes I would agree, and I must admit I had forgotten about the Elddis link, My previous comments were about Coachman, and I still have suspicions that there is more than just fantasy about my answer, but the Eldiss connection really does make conglomerate's position the UK market a better proposition for a buyout, as it has finger interests in all sectors of the touring market, and a commercial base that will be accessible in or out of the EU

 

[Dustydog]

The Hymer family acquired 2.3 million shares in Thor as part of the deal.
Thor btw are the ultimate owner of Airstream. Interesting times!

 

[ProfJohnL]

The Hymer family acquired 2.3 million shares in Thor as part of the deal.
Thor btw are the ultimate owner of Airstream. Interesting times!

Transfer of shares is not an uncommon feature of buyouts, Sometimes they are preference shares which are subject to a buy back schedule. Depending on the percentage of shares involved and the deal struck it might allow EH or his Representative to sit on Thor's board until an agreed number of shares has been repurchased back.