I've been using Air exchange HP in NZ for 23 years. Their efficiency and heat output is affected by outside temperature and climate.
Max COP is for 7C outside and 20C inside.
COP of 5 means 1kw of electricity produces 5kw of heating.
UK climate with its cold(not freezing) damp/ foggy days is worst environment they can be asked to work. At the temperature the outside radiator will go below freezing resulting in it icing up due to moist in air. Once outside temperature drops <0C, moisture in air disappears ie becomes frost so freezing of radiator isn't such problem. Once radiator freezes HP goes into reverse circle (air conditioning mode), cools inside air which heats outside radiator to defrost it. This is why they seem to stop working occasionally.
Efficiency COP drops off without side temperature, a lot HPs maybe down to COP or 1-2 below freezing, one time need most heat from them. There are models that are efficient below 0C but they aren't norm in NZ. Need to do your own research and not rely solely on installers advice.
When it comes to sizing bigger better as oversized HP won't work as hard and is less likely to freeze up on cold damp nights. Also they will heat room up lot quicker and less likely to struggle when temp is below 0C.
On paper smaller HPs have higher COP than larger models eg 3Kw(max heat output) might be 5 while 8KW is 3.5. That extra efficiency isn't any help if unit is icing up or not producing enough heat on freezing day.
Ground HP don't have these icing up or efficiency issues in freezing temperatures as heat exchanger is under ground where soil temp is well above 0C.