Second Lockdown 😥😥😥😥😥😥😥

[otherclive]

It's great news about the Pfizer vaccine, and it will be a game changer, but its only part of the answer, and it isn't (and never was going to be) an instant fix.

As you should know its a two dose vaccine, and it will take a number of days for it to start to produce any protection, I heard to-day that for someone who is vaccinated this week, they're are unlikely to develop immunity until about mid January.

The vaccine also does not prevent you from carrying the virus, so it is still vitally important to continue with great care about hygiene, such was keeping distance and washing hands etc.

Keep safe and keep others safe.

Prof
You are very specific in your statement that even when vaccinated and have developed immunity you can still carry and spread the virus. Where did that information come from? The following trials have not been completed to look at that aspect. In fact a recent briefing from the US CDC said:

“ Most health officials think an effective vaccine won’t be available to anyone who wants it until well into next year. Even then, there is still no data about whether a vaccine will stop asymptomatic spread of the virus, or the extent to which it will prevent people from developing severe Covid-19”

So perhaps rather than making such categoric statements it may be best to rely on official statements from the makers, regulators or authoritarian sources. A reason why these Covid vaccines have been developed so quickly is that the longer term trials that address a multitude of other facets have yet to be done. In 10 months pharma have developed vaccines that seem to work and do so safely, but further trials are forthcoming.

 

[JezzerB]

There is too much speculation but it seems you're immune a week after the second 'booster' they think and no you cannot carry and transmit the virus if you're immune from the jab but it didn't sound to me like they knew for definite!

 

[Dustydog]

A USA pharma did say this in a very recent Q&A.
”
If vaccines prevent people from getting *sick* with coronavirus, can they also prevent people from *carrying* the virus and infecting others?
“So far, we can’t say for sure,” CNN Chief Medical Correspondent Dr. Sanjay Gupta said.
Two vaccines could get emergency use authorization from US Food and Drug Administration as early as December: one from Pfizer/BioNTech, and one from Moderna.
In clinical trials, both vaccines have shown high effectiveness in preventing people from getting sick with Covid-19. Data showed the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is about 95% effective, and the Moderna vaccine is about 94.1% effective. (The Moderna vaccine was shown to be 100% effective at preventing severe disease.)
But the data hasn’t shown whether the vaccines can prevent people from carrying the virus and infecting others.”

I am no expert but I understand I could still be a potential carrier even post vaccination. Time will tell.

 

[otherclive]

A USA pharma did say this in a very recent Q&A.
”
If vaccines prevent people from getting *sick* with coronavirus, can they also prevent people from *carrying* the virus and infecting others?
“So far, we can’t say for sure,” CNN Chief Medical Correspondent Dr. Sanjay Gupta said.
Two vaccines could get emergency use authorization from US Food and Drug Administration as early as December: one from Pfizer/BioNTech, and one from Moderna.
In clinical trials, both vaccines have shown high effectiveness in preventing people from getting sick with Covid-19. Data showed the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is about 95% effective, and the Moderna vaccine is about 94.1% effective. (The Moderna vaccine was shown to be 100% effective at preventing severe disease.)
But the data hasn’t shown whether the vaccines can prevent people from carrying the virus and infecting others.”

I am no expert but I understand I could still be a potential carrier even post vaccination. Time will tell.

That’s why no authoritative source is making categoric statements in this respect. The data just is not available yet. It’s prudent to take measures to protect those around you who may not be vaccinated but uninvolved people should not make definitive statements as until data is available and analysed it’s conjecture. That was my point in response to Profs post.

 

[Jcloughie]

It's great news about the Pfizer vaccine, and it will be a game changer, but its only part of the answer, and it isn't (and never was going to be) an instant fix.

As you should know its a two dose vaccine, and it will take a number of days for it to start to produce any protection, I heard to-day that for someone who is vaccinated this week, they're are unlikely to develop immunity until about mid January.

The vaccine also does not prevent you from carrying the virus, so it is still vitally important to continue with great care about hygiene, such was keeping distance and washing hands etc.

Keep safe and keep others safe.

The challenge the government have right now is convincing the public who are not aware of those facts. All those that think it's a quick fix and can be rolled out easily. Listening to the news, that attitude to far too common.

John

 

[ProfJohnL]

Prof
You are very specific in your statement that even when vaccinated and have developed immunity you can still carry and spread the virus. Where did that information come from? The following trials have not been completed to look at that aspect. In fact a recent briefing from the US CDC said:

“ Most health officials think an effective vaccine won’t be available to anyone who wants it until well into next year. Even then, there is still no data about whether a vaccine will stop asymptomatic spread of the virus, or the extent to which it will prevent people from developing severe Covid-19”

So perhaps rather than making such categoric statements it may be best to rely on official statements from the makers, regulators or authoritarian sources. A reason why these Covid vaccines have been developed so quickly is that the longer term trials that address a multitude of other facets have yet to be done. In 10 months pharma have developed vaccines that seem to work and do so safely, but further trials are forthcoming.

Hello Clive.

I wonder if you are misunderstanding what i'm saying. Let me be a little more specific, and my reasons for it.

This is different to "asymptomatic spread" When I write "carry" or "carrying" the virus, I am indicating the transportation of the virus by contact with surfaces. I am not suggesting the person who transports the virus in this way has necessarily ingested the virus and become infected, they can simply brush against a contaminated surface and have the virus on clothes or skin etc which they potentially pass on.

And despite the article you pointed to a few posts ago which only questions the significance of contact transmission, it certainly does not discount it as a real issue. There is evidence the virus does survive long enough on surfaces, and it can be therefore be picked up and infect other vulnerable victims.

This is why even if the vaccines are as successful as the initial data suggests, certainly during the period while vaccines are being rolled out, and for a few weeks until after the population has been vaccinated, it will still be imperative for us all to continue to wash hands, wear face masks, and keep distances, and where necessary use protective gowns etc to prevent the physical spread of virus cells.

If you are lucky enough to develop an immunity from developing the infection, it will prevent you from duplicating the virus cells, but any virus that has not entered your body where it can be attacked by your immune system, may survive and might be expelled when you breath u or your clothes touch something.

If you are immune to the infection, that only relates to the inside of your body, it does not give any disinfection characteristics to your epidermis or clothing.

 

[otherclive]

Hello Clive.

I wonder if you are misunderstanding what i'm saying. Let me be a little more specific, and my reasons for it.

This is different to "asymptomatic spread" When I write "carry" or "carrying" the virus, I am indicating the transportation of the virus by contact with surfaces. I am not suggesting the person who transports the virus in this way has necessarily ingested the virus and become infected, they can simply brush against a contaminated surface and have the virus on clothes or skin etc which they potentially pass on.

And despite the article you pointed to a few posts ago which only questions the significance of contact transmission, it certainly does not discount it as a real issue. There is evidence the virus does survive long enough on surfaces, and it can be therefore be picked up and infect other vulnerable victims.

This is why even if the vaccines are as successful as the initial data suggests, certainly during the period while vaccines are being rolled out, and for a few weeks until after the population has been vaccinated, it will still be imperative for us all to continue to wash hands, wear face masks, and keep distances, and where necessary use protective gowns etc to prevent the physical spread of virus cells.

If you are lucky enough to develop an immunity from developing the infection, it will prevent you from duplicating the virus cells, but any virus that has not entered your body where it can be attacked by your immune system, may survive and might be expelled when you breath u or your clothes touch something.

If you are immune to the infection, that only relates to the inside of your body, it does not give any disinfection characteristics to your epidermis or clothing.

Prof
There was a link to WHO and CDC websites in an earlier post where the current advice regarding contaminated surfaces has been significantly changed since people were panic buying disinfectants. It’s now considered quite a low likelihood of transmission as the perceived viral load on surfaces isn’t large and would be mainly transmitted by hand. The understanding of the virus residence time on different types of surface has also changed over time as more is known about it. So regular hand washing is a still key precaution.
My understanding of the term “carrying the virus” related more to the accepted epidemiological definition whereby a carrier was infected. Not that some virus was present on their clothes.

 

[ProfJohnL]

Prof
There was a link to WHO and CDC websites in an earlier post where the current advice regarding contaminated surfaces has been significantly changed since people were panic buying disinfectants. It’s now considered quite a low likelihood of transmission as the perceived viral load on surfaces isn’t large and would be mainly transmitted by hand. The understanding of the virus residence time on different types of surface has also changed over time as more is known about it. So regular hand washing is a still key precaution.
My understanding of the term “carrying the virus” related more to the accepted epidemiological definition whereby a carrier was infected. Not that some virus was present on their clothes.

These organisations have not completed or published their final results, but even from the leaked information they only suggest the contact transmission is low but crucialy is not zero.

For that reason alone there will still be a need for the everyone to continue to socially distance, and take the hygiene precautions until the incident rate is very much lower.

 

[Guzzilazz]

Jonathan Van Tam was doing the studio rounds yesterday and was very definitive. The only way to confirm what the vaccine does is by collecting data from vaccinated people. At the moment there is only data that confirms that a) the vaccine stops people being infected by the virus and b) that the vaccinated do not get hospitalised...

He specifically said that there is no data to state whether the the vaccine prevents people who have been exposed to the virus from onward transmission. Prof John L's statement concerning "carrying the virus" i.e. on hands and clothes etc is not the generally accepted definition of "carrying the virus" - i.e. the virus is in their body and capable of being transmitted by aerosols

 

[Dustydog]

These organisations have not completed or published their final results, but even from the leaked information they only suggest the contact transmission is low but crucialy is not zero.

For that reason alone there will still be a need for the everyone to continue to socially distance, and take the hygiene precautions until the incident rate is very much lower.

Fully agree. Whilst no vaccine passports will be issued those vaccinated should be ok. However the possibility to be a carrier remains . Those not vaccinated need to be very careful and respect the social distancing etc. To ignore, I believe they will do at their own peril. Hopefully we will ALL be vaccinated over the next 6 months max.

 

[Hutch]

I think that after receiving any vaccination we still have to be aware to social distance from each other.
Today in out local pub, for a meal, our old vicar came in, with his son for a "treat" straight away he is shaking hands with his old friends, he did not understand social distancing, as did not some of his friends. Landlord brings around squirty gell and nicley asks folk to use some. Lets not always blame the young folk.

 

[otherclive]

I think that after receiving any vaccination we still have to be aware to social distance from each other.
Today in out local pub, for a meal, our old vicar came in, with his son for a "treat" straight away he is shaking hands with his old friends, he did not understand social distancing, as did not some of his friends. Landlord brings around squirty gell and nicley asks folk to use some. Lets not always blame the young folk.

My wife and daughter and granddaughter went to the cinema last night. Including themselves the total audience was 11. Sanitisers everywhere, everyone wore masks, no food or drinks and fans on full chat. I stayed home and read 😷

 

[Raywood]

There is a report today of a man selling fake certificates for travellers. Some people have no shame and no concern for the safety of others.

 

[otherclive]

There is a report today of a man selling fake certificates for travellers. Some people have no shame and no concern for the safety of others.

I agree. That’s one reason why I think the Government are reluctant to go down that route despite media and business group pressure. The most secure option could be linked to an app with high security.

 

[Beachball]

My wife and daughter and granddaughter went to the cinema last night. Including themselves the total audience was 11. Sanitisers everywhere, everyone wore masks, no food or drinks and fans on full chat. I stayed home and read 😷

Hi Clive did you enjoy peace and quiet

 

[otherclive]

Hi Clive did you enjoy peace and quiet

Always do. That’s why I’m quite happy to let them all go on holiday whilst I rabbit sit.

 

[Parksy]

My wife got no choice she still working as a nurse helping now through the second national lockdown only thing she worries about me because i am in the vulnerable group. ..
My son is in 14 days isolation because where his wife works someone has Covid .
But a good friend of the family has to keep checking on me to see if i am alright but does not come in just gives me a text .
Lucky we have Asda home delivery since March they bring the food and everything gets wipe we also have anti bac wipes .
I am at doctor on Wednesday for my regular 12 week injection got to ring up on the day to make appointment .
Take Care Keep Safe Everyone ..

I hope that your wife isn't involved in the care of Covid patients Beachball?
If she unfortunately became infected with C19 it could create a very dangerous situation for you as a vulnerable person.
My daughter in law was working as an NHS hospital nurse but she considered that the risks to her husband (my eldest son) and their daughter were too great.
She is now nursing at a residential home for adults with mental health issues.
C19 safety precautions there are stringent, patients and staff are tested for C19 twice weekly and an added bonus is that she has jumped several pay grades in her new job.
The chances of my d-i- l contracting Coronavirus from work are now negligible.

 

[Beachball]

Goes where she is needed and wears a personal protective equipment (PPE) that will protect the user against health and safety risks at work hoping she does not catch the virus .

 

[Buckman]

Looking at the figures this morning it seems that both the Covid19 infection rate and death rates have increased substantially? Today it is sitting at nearly 21502 daily new infections with death rate exceeding 512 a day.

Seems we may be ending into a third lockdown in January and if so I think it will be a lot stricter than the previous lockdowns as they really need to slow it down and get as many people vaccinated as soon as possible?

 

[otherclive]

It’s a sad fact that the daily deaths quoted yesterday at 519 is similar to the total so far in the pandemic in South Korea with its population of 51M. Unfortunately most health professionals seem to think that a third lockdown or regional equivalent will be required post Christmas. However I cannot realistically see how it could be a lot stricter than the first lockdown, which was absolutely pretty total. The positive is that the risks to care home residents and staff are much better understood and better controlled, and the elderly population are much more aware of what precautions to take to minimise their risk.

 

[Buckman]

It’s a sad fact that the daily deaths quoted yesterday at 519 is similar to the total so far in the pandemic in South Korea with its population of 51M. Unfortunately most health professionals seem to think that a third lockdown or regional equivalent will be required post Christmas. However I cannot realistically see how it could be a lot stricter than the first lockdown, which was absolutely pretty total. The positive is that the risks to care home residents and staff are much better understood and better controlled, and the elderly population are much more aware of what precautions to take to minimise their risk.

I agree that the first lockdown was quite strict, but the second lockdown made hardly any differecne to people going about their daily lives.
Unfortunately the government and it does nto which one is in control are caught between a rock and a hard place. Whatever they do there will not be a solution as long as people continue to ignore guidelines!

 

[Dustydog]

Vaccinations start tomorrow. 👏👏👏. My local is set to close its doors again by choice. He is losing money staying open, fully C19 compliant, is uneconomic. This means more young staff furloughed. I do wonder how much longer our economy can support the lockdown? I do not want the herd immunity brigade taking over the C19 decisions. A total disaster. But it is clear many people are becoming very frustrated with lock down. Let’s hope the vaccination program completes as quickly as possible.

 

[Raywood]

I think we are all frustrated by the lockdown. It does look to be the only way to avoid massive problems with deaths and the NHS but at the same time it is difficult to know if we can afford the strict measures we have.

 

[Dustydog]

Reading yesterdays DT there seems to be some efficacy questions being raised. Pfizer “promises” 95% whilst AZ Oxford say 62%.. The question is do you take what you are given or opt for the one with the best”promise”? An Australian vaccine has just failed , needing further research. Overall our virologists have done brilliant work getting this far. I intend having faith and taking what I am offered.

 

[ProfJohnL]

The evidence is fairly conclusive, and that is the first lock down which was almost total lock down was successful at reducing the infection rate in the UK . The second wave of lockdown measures across our nations have been less successful, and that is almost certainly due to as Buckman pointed out many people continued to work, and of course the fact that schools were open. These weren't real lock down's.

I believe there are an increasing number of people in all walks of life who do not understand the seriousness of this virus. They see headline figures such as a small % morbidity rate and think that everyone else recovers and gets back to normal. What they don't see is the numbers of victims who do indeed survive the virus, but then go on to have quite severe long term issues. Just look at the number of beds needed for infected and recovering patients in hospitals and recovery units.

Covid-19 has far wider repercussions than most flu's, and that is another reason why it is so important to limit the opportunities for C19 to spread.

The vaccines are fantastic news, and offer us an opportunity to be able to manage the infections better, but vaccines by themselves are not going to eliminate the risk of infection, we still need to be proactive about reducing all means of transmission until the risk of infection has been almost removed.