Surprised at lack of comment on caravan industry economic issues.

[otherclive]

I see in Practical Caravan that Swift had losses, in particular its touring caravan sales. In parallel Knaus and Trigano touring caravan sales are down. The post Covid surge in sales is over, so I wonder where touring caravan sales go from here. I notice that my grand children and their friends like going on holiday but extensively use AirBNB for short notice breaks and favour odd ball accommodations, or camping sites. Even things like going to Prague for a music event where the ticket prices are much lower than UK, such that with a budget flight, hotels etc the total cost for a couple of nights away is on a par with just going to a venue in UK with a single night accommodation. Campervans seem to be something they would aspire to, but even one of those is low in their needs given the purchase costs and other demands on their incomes.

It will be interesting to see how caravanning progresses in the future and what the makers actions will be.

Swift posts pre-tax loss as caravan sales show no sign of "immediate return" to previous demand - Practical Caravan

Swift has said the pre-tax loss was the result of a number of factors, including economic uncertainty and the end of the post-pandemic surge.

www.practicalcaravan.com

 

[Dustydog]

Here at Carnon Downs most of the 178 pitches are occupied. Most are retired couples.
Plenty of older units, One new pristine Coachman Laser.

Not that many new cars , mostly 5/10 yers old.

It will be different when the school holidays start.
I wonder if the drop in new sales will adversely affect the used market prices?

Or is there a remote possibility the Swifts and Baileys will improve quality and reduce prices🤔😉.

I agree about the budget airlines. We are looking at a 4 day break in Edinburgh flying from Bristol £30 each return!

 

[Andy Norfolk]

We have just come back from 2 weeks away. First site was in north Wales for a week. It has 25 pitches and was 90% full. But 90% of those there were seasonal pitches. Nice site.

Came down to Chippenham for a week. Bigger site about 20% full. No seasonal pitches that I could see. Not such a nice site. Both sites generally older people.

My conclusion is better quality sites priced reasonably will do best. Mainly older vans. Manufacturer's are at risk of a race to the bottom on quality. I no longer think caravanning is a young family thing. There are so many options for people to get away now. Price and quality will produce winners and losers. I would expect consolidation to happen in the manufacture side.

 

[Mel]

Perhaps everyone is buying camper vans? Just left a C&CC site ( Walton on Thames). I would estimate only 30% full ( and it was £22 a night with electric, not one of the stupidly priced club sites). The majority were campervans and motor homes.
Mel

 

[Mr Plodd]

Maybe many are seeing the writing on the wall about caravans and what will be available in the near future to tow them with?
That was certainly one of the factors we took to account before we changed from caravan to PCV. It wasn't a major influenceing factor on our decision, but it did form part of it.
In addition of course there is the capital outlay to consider, along with the depreciation of course. A new caravan is in the £20-30k bracket, now that does buy you a fair bit of package holiday, then factor in what that £20-30k's worth of caravan loses every year and the economics start to become questionable.
As a counter point I sold a large MH (privately) about 9 years ago, for £30k. An absolutely identical MH is currently on a dealers forecourt for £29950!
My current PVC is 16 years old. The difference in what it cost new, and what I had to pay to get it a few weeks ago was just 8%
Yep, that's right, it had lost just 8% of its new value over 16 years. Having said that a new one is now over £70k, so way over double what I paid. But that much, for a PVC?? Crazy or what.
But clearly MH's hold their value much better than caravans do. Who would contemplate buying a 16 year old caravan for 92% of it cost when new.? But that's the sort of money required for a MH/PVC
Maybe thats why many more MH's are being purchased, people realise they are not going to lose anything like as much as they would with a caravan when they decide to sell them on.

 

[JTQ]

As said above caravanning as we know it will not flourish because the natural and mandated trend is for our cars not to be suitable, so it will become more niche than it is today.

Whilst there are exceptions, caravans have grown both in size and in number from our early days, most of us had tents or the more luxurious trailer tents, caravans were thin on the ground and most that were around we would think as miniscule. It was actually more affordable than what it developed into.
I am not sure camping is so doomed, nor what really is a trailer tent, it will just have to be packaged as something perceived as "cooler".

Compounding things, home curtilages for many homes have shrunk so home parking on new builds has basically gone.
The caravan industry seemed slow wited in seeing how things inevitably would unfold, probably blinded by the COVID effect bubble, with the same outcome all bubbles succumb to.
But then the same industry has failed to appreciate turning out appalling quality products, tramrails to declining sales, "we" simply give up buying.
Not somewhere I would invest.

edit: re motorhomes of all flavours.
I am not sure that bubble has long to run, but sure it will be longer than our mega caravans.
MHs are too expensive to be much other than the dream acquisition from the pension pot, then again those pension pots will not be as full in real terms as they have been.
Plus accessed in later years where health issues will also impact the number able to realise that dream.