Surprised at lack of comment on caravan industry economic issues.

[otherclive]

I see in Practical Caravan that Swift had losses, in particular its touring caravan sales. In parallel Knaus and Trigano touring caravan sales are down. The post Covid surge in sales is over, so I wonder where touring caravan sales go from here. I notice that my grand children and their friends like going on holiday but extensively use AirBNB for short notice breaks and favour odd ball accommodations, or camping sites. Even things like going to Prague for a music event where the ticket prices are much lower than UK, such that with a budget flight, hotels etc the total cost for a couple of nights away is on a par with just going to a venue in UK with a single night accommodation. Campervans seem to be something they would aspire to, but even one of those is low in their needs given the purchase costs and other demands on their incomes.

It will be interesting to see how caravanning progresses in the future and what the makers actions will be.

Swift posts pre-tax loss as caravan sales show no sign of "immediate return" to previous demand - Practical Caravan

Swift has said the pre-tax loss was the result of a number of factors, including economic uncertainty and the end of the post-pandemic surge.

www.practicalcaravan.com

 

[Dustydog]

Here at Carnon Downs most of the 178 pitches are occupied. Most are retired couples.
Plenty of older units, One new pristine Coachman Laser.

Not that many new cars , mostly 5/10 yers old.

It will be different when the school holidays start.
I wonder if the drop in new sales will adversely affect the used market prices?

Or is there a remote possibility the Swifts and Baileys will improve quality and reduce prices🤔😉.

I agree about the budget airlines. We are looking at a 4 day break in Edinburgh flying from Bristol £30 each return!

 

[Andy Norfolk]

We have just come back from 2 weeks away. First site was in north Wales for a week. It has 25 pitches and was 90% full. But 90% of those there were seasonal pitches. Nice site.

Came down to Chippenham for a week. Bigger site about 20% full. No seasonal pitches that I could see. Not such a nice site. Both sites generally older people.

My conclusion is better quality sites priced reasonably will do best. Mainly older vans. Manufacturer's are at risk of a race to the bottom on quality. I no longer think caravanning is a young family thing. There are so many options for people to get away now. Price and quality will produce winners and losers. I would expect consolidation to happen in the manufacture side.

 

[Mel]

Perhaps everyone is buying camper vans? Just left a C&CC site ( Walton on Thames). I would estimate only 30% full ( and it was £22 a night with electric, not one of the stupidly priced club sites). The majority were campervans and motor homes.
Mel

 

[Mr Plodd]

Maybe many are seeing the writing on the wall about caravans and what will be available in the near future to tow them with?
That was certainly one of the factors we took to account before we changed from caravan to PCV. It wasn't a major influenceing factor on our decision, but it did form part of it.
In addition of course there is the capital outlay to consider, along with the depreciation of course. A new caravan is in the £20-30k bracket, now that does buy you a fair bit of package holiday, then factor in what that £20-30k's worth of caravan loses every year and the economics start to become questionable.
As a counter point I sold a large MH (privately) about 9 years ago, for £30k. An absolutely identical MH is currently on a dealers forecourt for £29950!
My current PVC is 16 years old. The difference in what it cost new, and what I had to pay to get it a few weeks ago was just 8%
Yep, that's right, it had lost just 8% of its new value over 16 years. Having said that a new one is now over £70k, so way over double what I paid. But that much, for a PVC?? Crazy or what.
But clearly MH's hold their value much better than caravans do. Who would contemplate buying a 16 year old caravan for 92% of it cost when new.? But that's the sort of money required for a MH/PVC
Maybe thats why many more MH's are being purchased, people realise they are not going to lose anything like as much as they would with a caravan when they decide to sell them on.

 

[JTQ]

As said above caravanning as we know it will not flourish because the natural and mandated trend is for our cars not to be suitable, so it will become more niche than it is today.

Whilst there are exceptions, caravans have grown both in size and in number from our early days, most of us had tents or the more luxurious trailer tents, caravans were thin on the ground and most that were around we would think as miniscule. It was actually more affordable than what it developed into.
I am not sure camping is so doomed, nor what really is a trailer tent, it will just have to be packaged as something perceived as "cooler".

Compounding things, home curtilages for many homes have shrunk so home parking on new builds has basically gone.
The caravan industry seemed slow wited in seeing how things inevitably would unfold, probably blinded by the COVID effect bubble, with the same outcome all bubbles succumb to.
But then the same industry has failed to appreciate turning out appalling quality products, tramrails to declining sales, "we" simply give up buying.
Not somewhere I would invest.

edit: re motorhomes of all flavours.
I am not sure that bubble has long to run, but sure it will be longer than our mega caravans.
MHs are too expensive to be much other than the dream acquisition from the pension pot, then again those pension pots will not be as full in real terms as they have been.
Plus accessed in later years where health issues will also impact the number able to realise that dream.

 

[Danddandy]

Maybe many are seeing the writing on the wall about caravans and what will be available in the near future to tow them with?
That was certainly one of the factors we took to account before we changed from caravan to PCV. It wasn't a major influenceing factor on our decision, but it did form part of it.
In addition of course there is the capital outlay to consider, along with the depreciation of course. A new caravan is in the £20-30k bracket, now that does buy you a fair bit of package holiday, then factor in what that £20-30k's worth of caravan loses every year and the economics start to become questionable.
As a counter point I sold a large MH (privately) about 9 years ago, for £30k. An absolutely identical MH is currently on a dealers forecourt for £29950!
My current PVC is 16 years old. The difference in what it cost new, and what I had to pay to get it a few weeks ago was just 8%
Yep, that's right, it had lost just 8% of its new value over 16 years. Having said that a new one is now over £70k, so way over double what I paid. But that much, for a PVC?? Crazy or what.
But clearly MH's hold their value much better than caravans do. Who would contemplate buying a 16 year old caravan for 92% of it cost when new.? But that's the sort of money required for a MH/PVC
Maybe thats why many more MH's are being purchased, people realise they are not going to lose anything like as much as they would with a caravan when they decide to sell them on.

Sorry, I may have missed earlier comments but what is a PVC?

 

[otherclive]

Sorry, I may have missed earlier comments but what is a PVC?

Panel Van Conversion.

 

[Buckman]

Caravans ae now stupidly priced especially new ones and to boot, they are badly assembled and you have to stick with the same dealership.

 

[woodsieboy]

I suspect there are many like us, seasoned caravanners, 30 years +.
Our 2019 caravan is supposed to be our last, our 2021 Santa Fe diesel wil be our last, with no plans to change either
Both working 2.5 days a week, drawing our pensions and helping with grandchildren
So we are done as far as caravan and car sales are concerned.
Our business is being hit on all sides by increased national government and local goverment cost increases,our customers visit less and spend less, most are concerned for their jobs and the knock on effect for their mortgage payments, overall confidence is low.
We have a rented unit on a small industrial park, the unit next door has been empty for 6 months, the kitchen business next door to that one is going in October, the one the other side of us is a photography company specalising in food promotion leaflets, reduced work since January this year as companies cut back on promotions, so thinking of closing
While the motorhome/ van conversion market appears to be thriving, I fear it is a limited audience and will eventually see a constriction,
In the meantime we get e mails most days from sites that we have previously visited, both UK and France with offers and discounts,
One of the problems with business today is managing the reduction in turnover, many have enjoyed consistent growth fuelled by inflation and now reality is hitting home,many of our suppliers have no experience of managing a downturn, so the first response will be to reduce costs, which means cutting back on stockholding then cutting back on people, so with less people employed, they have less money to spend, on food, clothing, housing, holidays etc.
The caravan makers are not exempt, they will be forced to reduce their costs, or they can reduce the range, streamline components,reduce staff, or even reduce the quality, or even stop making caravans completely and concentrate on the motorhome side of the business.
A perfect storm appears to be coming for the industry

 

[GaryB]

Our caravan is just over a year old and car just under a year old, we plan to retire next September, the car will then have just over 30,000 miles on it. We were/are going to hold onto both until the reach around 6 years old then make some decisions on what to do. Our current house has plenty of parking space, so do we go a different holiday route AND downsize the house at the same time? No idea.

Ignoring the caravan industry sales (which is factual) I must admit that some of the posts on the forums (not just this place) do paint a bleaker picture than I see when away in the caravan. There's enough stuff in the world to worry about so I treat the caravan as a bit of an escape.

 

[Dustydog]

Like Gary I suspect many of us are hanging onto our current diesel tugs, at least until just before the total ban on new diesels 2030 or whenever?
Maybe that will be our turning point for a low mileage replacement. Or do we hang up our tow bar?
Do a Beachball, seasonal?
Or a Buckman , hotels, cottages air BnBs etc?

For now we have no plans to change car or caravan. They owe us nothing and have paid for themselves ten times over.

 

[Buckman]

I suspect there are many like us, seasoned caravanners, 30 years +.
Our 2019 caravan is supposed to be our last, our 2021 Santa Fe diesel wil be our last, with no plans to change either
Both working 2.5 days a week, drawing our pensions and helping with grandchildren
So we are done as far as caravan and car sales are concerned.
Our business is being hit on all sides by increased national government and local goverment cost increases,our customers visit less and spend less, most are concerned for their jobs and the knock on effect for their mortgage payments, overall confidence is low.
We have a rented unit on a small industrial park, the unit next door has been empty for 6 months, the kitchen business next door to that one is going in October, the one the other side of us is a photography company specalising in food promotion leaflets, reduced work since January this year as companies cut back on promotions, so thinking of closing
While the motorhome/ van conversion market appears to be thriving, I fear it is a limited audience and will eventually see a constriction,
In the meantime we get e mails most days from sites that we have previously visited, both UK and France with offers and discounts,
One of the problems with business today is managing the reduction in turnover, many have enjoyed consistent growth fuelled by inflation and now reality is hitting home,many of our suppliers have no experience of managing a downturn, so the first response will be to reduce costs, which means cutting back on stockholding then cutting back on people, so with less people employed, they have less money to spend, on food, clothing, housing, holidays etc.
The caravan makers are not exempt, they will be forced to reduce their costs, or they can reduce the range, streamline components,reduce staff, or even reduce the quality, or even stop making caravans completely and concentrate on the motorhome side of the business.
A perfect storm appears to be coming for the industry

Excellent post! So true!

 

[Tobes]

I think there is a lot of gloom being painted on the prospect of no suitable tow cars. The petrol/diesel ban is currently sat at 2035 for PHEV, and as many on here have demonstrated hybrid and PHEV towing is little different to ICE towing.
By that point my current tow car will be 14 years old, but I would bet will still have upwards of 80% of its original battery capacity. As a used car - I bet you could pick one up for a 2k or 3k. In the mean time, there is still 10 years of car, battery and infrastructure development to take place. If we look at what was available in 2015 compared to now, the options are very very different.
I think - as with everything - ways will be found and cars and caravans will continue to find their own level in the used market. People will pay what they are prepared to pay for them.

 

[GaryB]

I think there is a lot of gloom being painted on the prospect of no suitable tow cars. The petrol/diesel ban is currently sat at 2035 for PHEV, and as many on here have demonstrated hybrid and PHEV towing is little different to ICE towing.
By that point my current tow car will be 14 years old, but I would bet will still have upwards of 80% of its original battery capacity. As a used car - I bet you could pick one up for a 2k or 3k. In the mean time, there is still 10 years of car, battery and infrastructure development to take place. If we look at what was available in 2015 compared to now, the options are very very different.
I think - as with everything - ways will be found and cars and caravans will continue to find their own level in the used market. People will pay what they are prepared to pay for them.

I think that quite a bit of caravan-sales-downturn is purely levels returning to pre-COVID but folks are attributing it to unknown future events. I also think a knock-on effect of returning to earlier times is biting some of the club's pitch occupancy forecasts?

I drove down to Brighton on Sunday afternoon and back yesterday (400 mile round trip) and saw plenty of caravans out and about.

 

[otherclive]

Like Gary I suspect many of us are hanging onto our current diesel tugs, at least until just before the total ban on new diesels 2030 or whenever?
Maybe that will be our turning point for a low mileage replacement. Or do we hang up our tow bar?
Do a Beachball, seasonal?
Or a Buckman , hotels, cottages air BnBs etc?

For now we have no plans to change car or caravan. They owe us nothing and have paid for themselves ten times over.

Be prepared to dig deep into the ISAs when you see UK accommodation prices! We have had to cancel our planned trip to Trier as my kidneys have still not recovered from the mid April nosebleed. So diverting to seven days in UK for Tavistock/Torquay sees prices above £1000 for a BB week with evening meals as extra to find. We don't want self contained this time as the pooch will be in kennels, and its nice to not having to shop and prep meals.

 

[otherclive]

I think there is a lot of gloom being painted on the prospect of no suitable tow cars. The petrol/diesel ban is currently sat at 2035 for PHEV, and as many on here have demonstrated hybrid and PHEV towing is little different to ICE towing.
By that point my current tow car will be 14 years old, but I would bet will still have upwards of 80% of its original battery capacity. As a used car - I bet you could pick one up for a 2k or 3k. In the mean time, there is still 10 years of car, battery and infrastructure development to take place. If we look at what was available in 2015 compared to now, the options are very very different.
I think - as with everything - ways will be found and cars and caravans will continue to find their own level in the used market. People will pay what they are prepared to pay for them.

I recently received an update from Wiltshire Council regarding their plans for infrastructure to support electric vehicle ownership. Must say I was quite impressed by two aspects. One how to address residents with no off road parking, and two to aim to keep public charging points affordable. Be interesting to see how the plans develop and mature. On holiday in the Lakes it was pleasing to see the number of visitor attractions and public car parks that had charging points. Albeit not many seemed to be utilised. But they were there anyway.

https://www.wiltshire.gov.uk/article/11495/Overview

 

[Buckman]

I think there is a lot of gloom being painted on the prospect of no suitable tow cars. The petrol/diesel ban is currently sat at 2035 for PHEV, and as many on here have demonstrated hybrid and PHEV towing is little different to ICE towing.
By that point my current tow car will be 14 years old, but I would bet will still have upwards of 80% of its original battery capacity. As a used car - I bet you could pick one up for a 2k or 3k. In the mean time, there is still 10 years of car, battery and infrastructure development to take place. If we look at what was available in 2015 compared to now, the options are very very different.
I think - as with everything - ways will be found and cars and caravans will continue to find their own level in the used market. People will pay what they are prepared to pay for them.

Not sure if people would want to buy an "old" EV as battery replacement will probably be foremost in their minds? At present a big issue is that if on motorways, there is no where to recharge an EV when towing a caravan unless the caravan is un hitched from the car. Our 3.0L diesel sold for about £3-4k more than we expected and we were pleasantly surprised.

 

[Tobes]

Not sure if people would want to buy an "old" EV as battery replacement will probably be foremost in their minds? At present a big issue is that if on motorways, there is no where to recharge an EV when towing a caravan unless the caravan is un hitched from the car. Our 3.0L diesel sold for about £3-4k more than we expected and we were pleasantly surprised.

I think an additional 10 years of data, real world experience and infrastructure build out will change that significantly.

 

[Dustydog]

Be prepared to dig deep into the ISAs when you see UK accommodation prices! We have had to cancel our planned trip to Trier as my kidneys have still not recovered from the mid April nosebleed. So diverting to seven days in UK for Tavistock/Torquay sees prices above £1000 for a BB week with evening meals as extra to find. We don't want self contained this time as the pooch will be in kennels, and its nice to not having to shop and prep meals.

Not surprised
Sister is at Carnon Downs Camc now . 6 berth massive log cabin ,dog friendly master en suite. £900 a week now. Shared with her 3 daughters cost split 5 ways. Two weeks for me FSP £600 .
All much cheaper after August
Hope your kidneys recover soon👍

 

[Buckman]

Not surprised
Sister is at Carnon Downs Camc now . 6 berth massive log cabin ,dog friendly master en suite. £900 a week now. Shared with her 3 daughters cost split 5 ways. Two weeks for me FSP £600 .
All much cheaper after August
Hope your kidneys recover soon👍

We had a very nice cottage near Burnham on Sea and cost for a week was £600 through Airbnb. Two weeks ago we rented a place through cottages.com in Weston and cost was just over £700 for the week.

 

[ProfJohnL]

Like Gary I suspect many of us are hanging onto our current diesel tugs, at least until just before the total ban on new diesels 2030 or whenever?
...

Life wont stop in 2030, All that stops is the sale of new IC cars. Second-hand will still be just as valid as they are now. It will mean the supply of IC tow vehicles will begin to diminish as no new ones will be sold, but you'll have at least ten years of future second hand ICE tow vehicles. By then who knows, there might be health supply of decent EV tow vehicles available.

 

[ProfJohnL]

Not sure if people would want to buy an "old" EV as battery replacement will probably be foremost in their minds? ....

As with all human derived technology, there will be some EV's where a battery replacement will be a necessity, but the reality is despite the numerous claims by poorly informed people or organisations, (often those who want us to keep burning oil based products) the evidence shows most EV batteries are lasting far better than even the supporters of EV's had hoped. You are more likely to encounter a significant usage limiting issue with an ICE car than with and EV especially as the vehicle ages.

I don't believe "battery replacement will probably be foremost in their minds"

 

[Buckman]

I am very happy to be one of the poorly informed and would be very happy to continue burning oil for as long as it is available however your choice if you want to believe the myth that EV batteries will last forever. Enjoy your EV. LOL! 🤣 🤣 🤣

 

[Sam Vimes]

There are always three sides to a coin.....

My daughter needed to replace the battery in their Nissan Leaf at a considerably lower mileage than their diesel car had on the clock and of a similar age.

Battery replacement time would be quite high on the list of things I'd need to know when considering an EV, especially when buying used. And cost of replacement.