The end is nigh! Death of the IC power.

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Apr 6, 2017
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One thing for certain is this policy will result in a step change in technology.
Moving from a reciprocating piston to purely rotational does make sense
If the petrol/diesel internal combustion engine was proposed today it would be laughed at by all.
Highly flammable fuel, under 30% efficiency and poisonous exhaust gas. Not good but it's served us well.
The electric motor is just the opposite of the IC engine but it's the energy store is the problem.
Low density, high cost and long re-charging until this is overcome the EV will have very limited use as a towing tug.
 
Apr 3, 2010
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Just read that the estimate for capacity of the grid is that 10+ extra power stations will be required. Won't happen then but as I shall be 92 by then it doesn't really concern me much :)Also read Farage's article on the great brexit fraud. It's the silly season in politics but then when isn't it?
 
Aug 23, 2009
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Until we go over to more nuclear power stations there won't be a viable "clean" way for us to produce sufficient electricity.

Only refers to cars and therefore ride on lawn mowers are still safe, thank goodness, may need a new one after 2040.

My new tow car is on order and should see my caravan days out and then can plod on into obscurity as indeed shall I. All the time I can buy the dreaded diesel then I can still drive around in my ancient German van so I won't get my knickers in a twist just yet.
 
Jun 20, 2005
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rubber_band_car.jpg


Bring back the rubber band. Note the limited slip diff :p
 
Apr 6, 2017
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Hi Martin24
Do you know of a manufacturer of 200hp 4 door ride-on mowers?
The real answer to the power generation problem lies with the JET project at Culham labs. If they can get it to work properly the idea of fusion provides true clean energy. The new project ITER is designed to produce 10x the input energy.
Although there's some doubt about future funding as it's a European project
 
Nov 11, 2009
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GD485 said:
Hi Martin24
Do you know of a manufacturer of 200hp 4 door ride-on mowers?
The real answer to the power generation problem lies with the JET project at Culham labs. If they can get it to work properly the idea of fusion provides true clean energy. The new project ITER is designed to produce 10x the input energy.
Although there's some doubt about future funding as it's a European project
t
I can recall a time when the UK wasn't a member of the EU but we participated in European and international programmes. After all if we bring expertise,knowledge, facilities and money to an international programme then it's hard to make a case why UK should be excluded.
 
Jul 22, 2014
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Dustydog said:
What will replace all the lost fuel revenues the Government gets from us
That's simple - road pricing. You will pay per mile, probably more in cities. They won't put the tax on electricity because that would hit domestic use - an even hotter political potato than road pricing.

I'd welcome that. At the moment I am paying about 10p per mile in VED, which is about twenty times as much as a 30 ton articulated HGV in typical use, and infinitely as much as a wealthy smug hipster in a Tesla.
 
Feb 3, 2008
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DrZhivago said:
They won't put the tax on electricity because that would hit domestic use - an even hotter political potato than road pricing.

There's already tax on domestic electricity. It started off low when first levied and subsequently went higher (environment tax?). There's nothing to stop it going even higher in the so-called name of the environment. :angry:
 
Jun 2, 2015
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when it comes to calling stuff "green" they will tax anything.

Anyway the promise by the government to ban the sale of any new petrol and diesel cars in an interesting one. Firstly it is so far in the future that I do not doubt that there will be several waves of new technology that make the electric car obsolete in its current form. Fuel cells, hydrogen as a fuel and bio fuels are all currently available technologies that will be improved and adapted; and there will be new concepts in energy production in the next 23 years i have no doubt.
Secondly I wonder how they are planning to generate all of the extra electricity required to charge all of the electric cars (if it happens)? this has been mentioned but i echo that question, how many more power plants when we can't afford to build Hinkley point without French and Chinese privatisation (which will make the electricity very expensive).
And then we have flight, are we to have electric aeroplanes? (again already mentioned).
Lastly,t here isn't enough Lithium to supply sufficient batteries using current technology, yes places like Bolivia have huge resources but we have 23 years of the ever increasing demand for mobile electronic devices before the year 2040 and throw away society.
whilst I can't argue that pollution from ICE is a problem, I do feel that ICE vehicle owners are an easy target for taxation yet again.
Anyway, hydrocarbon fossil fuels are a finite resource that will run out and cleaning up our act seems like a good thing to me, I just hope that here in the UK we can become part of the leading edge of any new technologies being developed rather than relying on foreign invention and manufacture.

For the record I cycle to work and only accrue about 5k miles a year in my Sante Fe, most of that is towing. Si probably have a lower carbon footprint than the Trendy Tesla driver with his hip wood burning stove and three Caribbean holidays a year.
 
Apr 6, 2017
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Hi Saint-spoon

I consider this announcement as a diversionary tactic by the government. Making a statement that get the press buzzing is a great way to hide the grim truth of what is going wrong.
Your right about the worlds resources regarding Lithum. Now if those countries have their head screwed on they will cut production to make the price rise and look after their future.
Energy density of current batteries is very poor when compared to fossil fuel. I think the world is a long way off having a practical replacement technology ready to replace the IC engine.
That may come in some other weird and wonderful technology such as xenon difluoride ultra cell. It's only a laboratory experiment at the present but does offer a far better solution that what we have now.
 
May 7, 2012
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Frankly 2040 is at least four governments away and we have no idea as to what technical progress will be made with all forms of transport, so you will need to be a lot nearer the date to know if it is actually going to happen. The law will apparently apply to Petrol and diesel only cars and not hybrids assuming it stays in force in the proposed form. There are major problems with electric cars particularly with the idea of finding the additional power needed and getting a charge to cars where the owner does not have a drive or garage and charging time so realism might make things change..
I do however agree that caravans will need to get lighter which might also mean the end for the twin axle and some of the fittings being dropped. You do however need a certain weight to make them stable so there is a limit to what you can do.
 
Sep 5, 2016
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When all this pie in the sky about diesel powered vehicles and anything else that is powered by diesel, and a complete ban in Europe and other parts of the world, what do you think the oil producing countries are going to do with their oil, they will just go and dump the stuff in third world countries and the Yanks will also be laughing their nuts off because they will be still paying for cheap oil in fifty years time,
 
Jul 22, 2014
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camel said:
[Given] a complete ban in Europe and other parts of the world, what do you think the oil producing countries are going to do with their oil, they will just go and dump the stuff in third world countries
Exactly this. The Chinese and Indians will cheerfully buy and burn any oil the West does not, even if they might make some PR gestures to the contrary to satisfy the Western media and hipsters. Then there will be the excuse "It's OK, because they are developing countries".

The vast populations of India and China currently without cars will have no compunction about manufacturing and using IC engined cars (and selling them to South America and Africa too) - in greater numbers than the West do now, at least until the oil runs out.
 
Apr 6, 2017
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Dr Z

You are right again!
The use of fossil fuels or at least the by-products derived from them will be in greater demand than to-day.
Lightweight EV will use composite and plastic materials and so do electrical components. Our reliance on oil will still be there maybe not for burning but certainly for the chemical industry.
 
Nov 11, 2009
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DrZhivago said:
camel said:
[Given] a complete ban in Europe and other parts of the world, what do you think the oil producing countries are going to do with their oil, they will just go and dump the stuff in third world countries
Exactly this. The Chinese and Indians will cheerfully buy and burn any oil the West does not, even if they might make some PR gestures to the contrary to satisfy the Western media and hipsters. Then there will be the excuse "It's OK, because they are developing countries".

The vast populations of India and China currently without cars will have no compunction about manufacturing and using IC engined cars (and selling them to South America and Africa too) - in greater numbers than the West do now, at least until the oil runs out.

I find it quite difficult to understand why some in developed western countries have such negative view of developing countries and their aspirations. After all if it wasn't for the actions of the old imperial countries China and India may have been far more advanced than they are today. To deny their citizens the right to some of the benefits that we take for granted is difficult to understand.

Having visited India four times in the last three years you would be amazed at the strides being taken to clean up their atmosphere. Few if any Tuk Tuk run on anything other than CNG as do many small urban delivery vehicles and an increasing number of buses. Cars tend to be mainly petrol. Solar farms and wind farms are popping up everywhere. Lots of their train lines are electrified. My view is arrived at through travelling in the NW, central plateau and through to Sikkim, Kolkata and Assam. So it covers a fairly representative area. China has
dramatically slowed the rate of building coal power stations opting for nuclear, solar and wind. The Chinese government has stipulated that 8% of cars sold in 2018 must be zero emissions. Rising to 10% in 2019, and 12% in 2020. This has shock the German an JLR makers who have few if any suitable models. Yet the Chinese Chery Eq introduced in 2014 sells for under $9000. DEFRAs recent announcement on electric cars by 2040 will do nothing to tackle the existing UK air pollution levels in cities, nor will our recent cancellation of some rail electrification programmes. So perhaps we would make a better job of it if we subcontracted our problems out to China and India :)
 
Apr 6, 2017
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Thanks otherclive

You have highlighted the progress the so called developing countries have made regarding pollution.
Our wonderful press and some radio/tv believe the truth should not get in the way of the story.
The average Sun/Daily Mail (et al) reader can only believe what they are reading. Cross checking facts takes effort.
Thanks for the information on the progress both India and China have made.
 
Sep 29, 2016
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I have ticked the 'Thank You' box for the two posts above this.

However, I do resent those countries (usually because of systemic governmental corruption) that will never embrace the principles of having a better environment; they continue to take (even though they can afford to choose otherwise) the lower of what is available for the personal gain of the relative few reaping the 'loot'.

OOPS, gone off caravanning here, I'll stop now :dry:
 
Mar 14, 2005
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I'm sorry, but I view this thread as the typical knee jerk reaction the press want the public to have.

The press cherry pick the most sensational headlines and make mountains out of mole hills, and skew the public's perception of what has been suggested. It's bit like Brexit again.

What the Press have done is to imply the proposals will be implemented, but have failed to take into full account the extent and the rate of technological developments that will take place between now and then.

If no development were to take place and the scheme was imposed, then yes there will be a big fail, but that is not going to be the case.

I think we all suspect governments don't always use clear logical thinking. To be fair, there are some very clever people involved with advising the government on technical matters - what politicians do with it may not be perfect but somehow we do generally do make it work.

There is an element of "chicken and egg" here. If no firm proposals had been made, developments would have been in many different directions, some of which could easily be opposing others, diluting the effort and end benefits. But by defining the goal now, it will tend to focus the direction of development efforts.

I'm not suggesting it will be easy, there are likely to be many pitfalls along the way. But I am certain we will see some quite innovative ideas that might challenge conventional thinking going forward. For example: can our present power grid handle the increasing demand for electric cars? the answer is yes and no. The actual power distribution grid is rarely used to its full present capacity, But the power generators are. So we have scope to distribute more power if its available.

Already there are clever ideas that will enable the excess night-time capacity of the generators to be captured by smart charging vehicle batteries, and to use those same batteries to supplement the grid when peak power demands exceeds generation capacity. This will smooth the demand on the grids power generators and make more energy available when its needed.

Expect to see new initiatives to reduce demand in areas that we have taken for granted. Examples where this has already started is the adoption high efficiency lighting (e.g LED's), Reduction in motor power in household goods, etc Expect to see similar initiatives for industry. It's also probably we will see structured vehicle taxes based on the kw power rating of motors in cars. THis will again tend to focus manufacturers in to producing practical cars. We don't need the neck snapping performance of a Tesla model S, I'd rather see a more modest motor offering greater range. This would reduce the charging needs for many cars.

Commerce (as differentiated from manufacturing) is likely to be looking at increasing flexible working from home, or more local business facilities to reduce commuting. Local authorities may ban vehicles in some areas on certain days.

Re-evaluation of goods and public transport involving the railways which mile for mile are far more efficient for long distance bulk carrying.

Initiatives to reduce packaging on goods we buy. I can easily recall the times when an entire households rubbish for a family of 6 could be easily contained in a single smaller waste bin! we have gone packaging mad, which has been exacerbated by the explosion of online shopping all of which requires protection.

New houses and conversions will need to be even more energy efficient, possibly being required to have PV and HW solar panels and power storage systems.

From the environmental perspective, it is a common comment that by going to electric power we are simply shifting the problem from the car to power stations. Well that is true to some extent, but in reality, the types of emissions from a power station are are different to those from a car exhaust. The quality and efficiency of combustion in a power station are managed far more carefully than that of an individual car, plus there is greater scope to build power stations with more effective particulate collectors, so for the same journey an IC car will produce more pollution than an electric car charged from the grid.

This situation will improve further as more renewables come on line, and cleaner generator sets are installed.

We will have to increase our generating capacity, but there is a lot of scope for renewable's in local areas. Combined power and Heat systems raise power conversion and usage efficiency. But also longer term large scale generation using more efficient conventional generates powered by gas or even coal, where the design of scrubbers in the exhausts can be far more effective than trying to clean up individual cars.

despite the whole life costs of nuclear, and the disposal of highly toxic waste, becasue it is highly concentrated it is easier to manage, than say the wide spread exhaust gas emissions of vehicles.

Does it mean the end of IC engines and especially diesel's? I don't think so, there will still some places with very good reasons why such power sources will be the only viable form of mechanical energy, and of course there is a massive stock of such engines in use now, which will take time to be replaced.

Is it all going to be a problem Yes, but its also a massive opportunity.
 
Nov 11, 2009
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Thank you Prof for such a comprehensive view which packages the realities of life. In all of this thread no one has given consideration to hydrogen. Back in the 1980s I met with a Canadian, Geof Ballard, who was a keen advocate of the hydrogen economy and developed early fuel cells and lots more. My particular area of interest was to develop systems for storing and then managing the disposal of hydrogen, which was a by product of our systems. I recall that some felt that storing hydrogen was too dangerous, then Geoff Ballard arranged a demo where an incendiary bullet was fired into a metal hydride storage tank. It was a non event, just a puff of flame and that was it. I guess recent owners of crashed Maclarens and Ferraris would welcome such a development!

I quote below a statement by Ballard, which was quite visionary at the time.

"It will take a combined effort of academia, government, and industry to bring about the change from a gasoline economy to a hydrogen economy. The forces are building and progress is being made. It is of major importance that a change of this magnitude not be forced on unwilling participants, but that all of us work together for an economically viable path to change."
— Geoffrey Ballard (1932-2008)"
 
Mar 14, 2005
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Hello Clive,
I didn't single out hydrogen in my previous post, becasue it is a renewable, in so far the hydrogen is not destroyed, its recombined, and can be uncombined again. The question is how to do it economically. Its just one a several possibilities.

The subject was the demise of the IC engine, and the uptake of electric vehicles. It does seem likely that electric power will be the most common solution, but it wont be the only one, and hydrogen could be one of the players. There are two ways of using hydrogen, either as a direct replacement for fluid hydrocarbon fuels in an IC engine, or as fuel in a fuel cell which produce electricity.

Either way it will be cleaner than petrol or diesel, and it will have similar refill times to our current petrol and diesel systems. Personally I don't see it as being as popular with the manufacturers, as producing an IC engine will be a lot more expensive than the electric motors.
 
Jun 20, 2005
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Maybe the solution lies down a different route. :unsure:
We could spend billions laying an electromagnetic system beneath our roads. The cars would only be a receiver of the power rather than carrying loads of batteries :silly: :blink: :S
 
Aug 23, 2009
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And all the delightful highway patrol people could sit in a control room and press a button to close a motorway if a leaf blows onto the carriageway :cheer:
 
Apr 6, 2017
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Since the Second World War we have enjoyed a period of personal transport and the change to non-polluting ( at place of use) vehicles looks as though that freedom could be at risk. Most emerging technologies start of as very expensive and overtime decrease.
In business they call it the bath tub graph. With conventional IC we have not reached the upward slope in cost that naturally occurs when the existing technology loses ground to the new.
It seems this increase in costs will come from artificial charges made by the government of the day. The motivation for this change is the environment.
Most times transition from one technology to another is due to a performance improvement although in this situation the basic function over the vehicle is being severely restricted.
Surely to make a genuine leap forward all the existing functionality of the motor vehicle needs to be embodied into the design in its replacement and be enhanced to meet the new demands.
I cannot see a possible technological candidate emerging that's able to satisfy the basic functional requirements of a present day vehicle.
 
Nov 11, 2009
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GD485 said:
Since the Second World War we have enjoyed a period of personal transport and the change to non-polluting ( at place of use) vehicles looks as though that freedom could be at risk. Most emerging technologies start of as very expensive and overtime decrease.
In business they call it the bath tub graph. With conventional IC we have not reached the upward slope in cost that naturally occurs when the existing technology loses ground to the new.
It seems this increase in costs will come from artificial charges made by the government of the day. The motivation for this change is the environment.
Most times transition from one technology to another is due to a performance improvement although in this situation the basic function over the vehicle is being severely restricted.
Surely to make a genuine leap forward all the existing functionality of the motor vehicle needs to be embodied into the design in its replacement and be enhanced to meet the new demands.
I cannot see a possible technological candidate emerging that's able to satisfy the basic functional requirements of a present day vehicle.

I have sympathy for your sentiments but you are assuming that the transport scenario some 30-40 years hence replicates today's situation. But change is already in hand. Young people are not taking driving tests at the rate of their predecessors, where they do drive they see a car as just transport so are happy to buy smaller vehicles. They also seem more at ease with using public transport too. Families are being delayed for several reasons although cost must be one, so their move up to larger vehicles is deferred. I tend to think that its the motor industry that will force the pace and governments will have to respond. In July 47% of new cars bought in Norway were electric, and there are reports of filling stations closing down such that in some areas motorists are carrying extra fuel cans. Look what happened over here re leaded 4 star, it went off of the market very quickly even from the few specialist outlets that were going to stock it. There will probably be a mix of technologies to meet various needs such as goods transport, long distance coaches, inner city distribution, farming and construction etc but I suspect that for personal transport the overriding one will be all electric. Like it or not!
 

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