The end is nigh! Death of the IC power.

[ProfJohnL]

Since the Second World War we have enjoyed a period of personal transport and the change to non-polluting ( at place of use) vehicles looks as though that freedom could be at risk. Most emerging technologies start of as very expensive and overtime decrease.
In business they call it the bath tub graph. With conventional IC we have not reached the upward slope in cost that naturally occurs when the existing technology loses ground to the new.
It seems this increase in costs will come from artificial charges made by the government of the day. The motivation for this change is the environment.
Most times transition from one technology to another is due to a performance improvement although in this situation the basic function over the vehicle is being severely restricted.
Surely to make a genuine leap forward all the existing functionality of the motor vehicle needs to be embodied into the design in its replacement and be enhanced to meet the new demands.
I cannot see a possible technological candidate emerging that's able to satisfy the basic functional requirements of a present day vehicle.

Dusty stole my line of reasoning B) .

Two variables changing, first is the demographic of car users, and secondly the technology to move people. These two facets will never entirely settle to a steady state, so it makes it quite difficult to be ultra accurate about how the future of personal transport will develop. What I am pretty certain about it wont just one system, becasue that would require nationalisation of the industry, and its highly unlikely any government up to 2040 will have firstly the political will to implement such a draconian approach, the money to fund it or the majority in parliament.

I tend to agree with Dusty, electric cars are the most likely outcome.

I do hope the government will intervene and set down some common features so there will be forced compatibility to enable a person to travel across the country without finding they have an incompatible car for recharging or whatever.

 

[emmerson]

Personally, at my age I just don't care.They can run cars on carrot juice if they can make it flammable.
As for my disregard of the planet's future, Mother Nature is a darn sight more powerful than puny little man, and has survived all the crises thrown at her so far, so she will probably survive this one as well, with or without man's interference.
So I suggest that we all stop worrying about things beyond our control and enjoy what time we've got left!

 

[otherclive]

Since the Second World War we have enjoyed a period of personal transport and the change to non-polluting ( at place of use) vehicles looks as though that freedom could be at risk. Most emerging technologies start of as very expensive and overtime decrease.
In business they call it the bath tub graph. With conventional IC we have not reached the upward slope in cost that naturally occurs when the existing technology loses ground to the new.
It seems this increase in costs will come from artificial charges made by the government of the day. The motivation for this change is the environment.
Most times transition from one technology to another is due to a performance improvement although in this situation the basic function over the vehicle is being severely restricted.
Surely to make a genuine leap forward all the existing functionality of the motor vehicle needs to be embodied into the design in its replacement and be enhanced to meet the new demands.
I cannot see a possible technological candidate emerging that's able to satisfy the basic functional requirements of a present day vehicle.

Dusty stole my line of reasoning B) .

Two variables changing, first is the demographic of car users, and secondly the technology to move people. These two facets will never entirely settle to a steady state, so it makes it quite difficult to be ultra accurate about how the future of personal transport will develop. What I am pretty certain about it wont just one system, becasue that would require nationalisation of the industry, and its highly unlikely any government up to 2040 will have firstly the political will to implement such a draconian approach, the money to fund it or the majority in parliament.

I tend to agree with Dusty, electric cars are the most likely outcome.

I do hope the government will intervene and set down some common features so there will be forced compatibility to enable a person to travel across the country without finding they have an incompatible car for recharging or whatever.

Prof,
As caravaners we are well used to carrying a variety of hook up cables on our Continental jaunts as well as reverse connected ones for reverse polarity. Even if hydrogen fuels come in again we have no problems swopping gas regulators and hoses to fuel our cookers, heaters and BBQs. So perhaps caravaners will be the only ones feeling comfortable in the "new Age" eh?

 

[ProfJohnL]

Personally, at my age I just don't care.They can run cars on carrot juice if they can make it flammable.
As for my disregard of the planet's future, Mother Nature is a darn sight more powerful than puny little man, and has survived all the crises thrown at her so far, so she will probably survive this one as well, with or without man's interference.
So I suggest that we all stop worrying about things beyond our control and enjoy what time we've got left!

I do support the view that climate change has been an on going effect even before mankind started to make fire. It is also likely the changes we are identifying now may have been on the cards just through the natural processes, but I also suspect that human activity has had an influence and may be accelerating the rate of change, faster than nature can adapt to it.

With teh benefit of hindsight, there is no doubt we have been reckless with our usage of non renewable fuels, to the point where the end of some of these supplies is foreseeable. We have often used more than was needed to produce the desired effect, and we certainly were not particularly careful about its long term effect on our environment. There is little doubt that city smog, is principally the result of human activity.

Its unlikely that anyone alive today will see the worst effects of the damage we are causing, but our children may. Shouldn't we be striving to leave them a world fit to live in?

It doesn't really hurt anyone to be more careful about their usage of resources, and considering the effects of waste products. It is a socially responsible attitude to care about the environment, and to try and live in a way that causes least impact on it.

 

[Raywood]

Having been away this last weekend and met my nephew who has an electric car I am reasonably sure they could be used to tow in the near future. I know his Tesla is beyond the reach of many including me at the moment, but the fact is that it could tow although the range would probably be about 100 miles or so towing at the moment, but the thing weighs two tons so stability should be good. The latest one is now down to about £30,000 so they are getting more affordable for a practical car with a decent range.
Basically if they can get a range of 200 miles in normal running now then given a few years time there is no reason it should not be far greater and more practical. The car had done a trip of well over 200 miles with a fourty minute stop to recharge during which they had lunch, so they were happy.
The computer is able to forecast where in the trip they will need to recharge and can even tell them how many charge points are not in use.
On the face of it given time the electric car might just work for us.

 

[Buckman]

2040 is the date set by the government to kill internal combustion engines as we know them.
Cars will become electrically powered and have a very low pollution as their main target and selling point..
I doubt that towing will feature in the marketing groups minds when planning for the future.
To survive caravans will have to weigh a fraction of their current figure.
Many jobs will be lost due to this change as electric cars will require far less servicing and no need for fuel distribution.
The near future will decide the demise of the caravan. As the diesel car will become less acceptable taxation and charges will be increased resulting less distance traveled and the need to optimise fuel consumption. The caravan will have to stay at home.
So enjoy your freedom and holidays in your caravan because it could soon be too expensive and unpopular to tow..

I think Gove is a total idiot who has not thought this through properly and also not thought of the consequences of switching to EVs. IMHO EVs are a step backward and are not the answer.

 

[WoodlandsCamper]

I need some front tyres on my car so was reading the offers from ATS in the Caravan Club magazine. In the small print it said the 25% off offer on air-con recharge was applicable to cars and vans only (at £36), but hybrid and electric vehicles were nearly twice the offer price (at £68). Why should they be more? Is this a sign of the times for electric vehicles?

 

[otherclive]

2040 is the date set by the government to kill internal combustion engines as we know them.
Cars will become electrically powered and have a very low pollution as their main target and selling point..
I doubt that towing will feature in the marketing groups minds when planning for the future.
To survive caravans will have to weigh a fraction of their current figure.
Many jobs will be lost due to this change as electric cars will require far less servicing and no need for fuel distribution.
The near future will decide the demise of the caravan. As the diesel car will become less acceptable taxation and charges will be increased resulting less distance traveled and the need to optimise fuel consumption. The caravan will have to stay at home.
So enjoy your freedom and holidays in your caravan because it could soon be too expensive and unpopular to tow..

I think Gove is a total idiot who has not thought this through properly and also not thought of the consequences of switching to EVs. IMHO EVs are a step backward and are not the answer.

Guess that you will be servicing the bicycle and brushing upon your cycling skills then :_)

 

[Gabsgrandad]

In 2040 this 'Codger' will (would have been 97!) when you get there and you are still seeing ICE's chugging about just say "and that's what Gabsgrandad once told you would happen!" (From the supreme pessimist!)

 

[Martin24]

In 2040 this 'Codger' will (would have been 97!) when you get there and you are still seeing ICE's chugging about just say "and that's what Gabsgrandad once told you would happen!" (From the supreme pessimist!)

This youngster would have been 68 (not a hope!). The Merc will still still be chugging along nicely and swmbo will probably of had it converted into a camper van.

 

[Parksy]

.....Its unlikely that anyone alive today will see the worst effects of the damage we are causing, but our children may. Shouldn't we be striving to leave them a world fit to live in?

It doesn't really hurt anyone to be more careful about their usage of resources, and considering the effects of waste products. It is a socially responsible attitude to care about the environment, and to try and live in a way that causes least impact on it.

It's an unfortunate fact that no matter what we do here in the UK our efforts will be futile because other nations show scant regard for the environment.
Having got that off my chest, I'd venture to suggest that touring caravans and those of us who use them for holidays already embrace environmental concerns with our limited use of resources.
A lot of our electric power comes from rechargeable 12 volt batteries, many of us have solar arrays to use even less power, we only use the water that we need, a lot of our rubbish is recycled so even though some of us use diesel powered towing vehicles at near optimum efficiency road speeds, especially on motorways, for which we pay more vehicle excise and more in fuel duties through higher fuel consumption to use, overall our collective footprint is significantly greener than that of airline passengers.
Perhaps the caravan and leisure tourism industries should lobby parliament to obtain some sort of exemption certificate for those of us who support multi million pound British industries with such green credentials.

 

[Dustydog]

Very good post Parksy
Just a shame Centrica's 12% gas and electricity increase announced today will affect us careful caravanners. Site increases

 

[WoodlandsCamper]

I believe the increase is on the electricity only, not on gas.

 

[emmerson]

Personally, at my age I just don't care.They can run cars on carrot juice if they can make it flammable.
As for my disregard of the planet's future, Mother Nature is a darn sight more powerful than puny little man, and has survived all the crises thrown at her so far, so she will probably survive this one as well, with or without man's interference.
So I suggest that we all stop worrying about things beyond our control and enjoy what time we've got left!

I do support the view that climate change has been an on going effect even before mankind started to make fire. It is also likely the changes we are identifying now may have been on the cards just through the natural processes, but I also suspect that human activity has had an influence and may be accelerating the rate of change, faster than nature can adapt to it.

With teh benefit of hindsight, there is no doubt we have been reckless with our usage of non renewable fuels, to the point where the end of some of these supplies is foreseeable. We have often used more than was needed to produce the desired effect, and we certainly were not particularly careful about its long term effect on our environment. There is little doubt that city smog, is principally the result of human activity.

Its unlikely that anyone alive today will see the worst effects of the damage we are causing, but our children may. Shouldn't we be striving to leave them a world fit to live in?

It doesn't really hurt anyone to be more careful about their usage of resources, and considering the effects of waste products. It is a socially responsible attitude to care about the environment, and to try and live in a way that causes least impact on it.

Believe me Prof, I am careful with our resources because I have to pay for them, and therefore do not waste them.
But my point was that if Nature can survive then survive she will, whatever we may think or do about it.
If it is beyond Nature's power to survive, then so be it. We cannot change what will be.

 

[Parksy]

Very good post Parksy
Just a shame Centrica's 12% gas and electricity increase announced today will affect us careful caravanners. Site increases

At least we have the option of voting with our wheels (or solar panels) if we encounter rip off ehu fees. :evil:

 

[DrZhivago]

It is nonsense to suppose that the move to EVs rules out towing caravans. While I am not a huge fan of the move to EVs, there is no reason whatever why an appropriate EV cannot pull a caravan, especially if you take the potential technical advances by 2040 into account. When EVs become the norm, there are going to be versions for all sorts of duties, including short commuting, long distance trips, public transport, commercial delivery, and heavy work such as pick-up trucks and tow vehicles. There is an ongoing huge market for the latter type. I am less certain about HGVs, and believe most of that stuff should be on rails anyway.

Unfortunately EVs have never really shaken of their "student project" image and it being (in someone's unfogettable words) "axiomatic that they are tiny, quirky and ugly" - thanks to Clive Sinclair's horrible C5 and innumerable subsequent and similarly impractical projects such as :-
www.contracthireandleasing.com/car-leasing-news/folding-electric-car-to-go-on-sale-in-2013/
https://phys.org/news/2013-08-team-unveils-foldable-micro-electric.html
http://www.npr.org/sections/alltech...hicle-went-from-car-of-the-future-to-obsolete.
Then Tesla goes to the opposite extreme with expensive high performance. Once we get over this phase, and once makers can agree (or be forced to agree) on standards, including IMHO exchangeable batteries, there will be no more problems than there are with IC vehicles.

 

[Raywood]

Tesla are now introducing a mainstream vehicle at about £30,000 and a range of 200 miles which might just make the electric car more acceptable. The time for a full recharge at a recharging station is about an hour so is feasible if you stop for a rest at that time. With further improvements in batteries the cars will get even more acceptable to many and should be capable of towing a reasonable distance. One Tesla already can tow but the range would be too small for our use at the moment.
From what I can gather the real challenge is the recharging point if you do not have a drive or garage. At the moment there seems to be no easy answer to this one particularly if you live in an area where there is only street parking.
While there appears to be a problem generating the extra capacity the cars will need I am assured by my nephew, who is well versed in this, that most of it can in fact be covered by savings we are making elsewhere.
You would also have to look at your electricity tariff. The cost of a full recharge is apparently about £6 which while cheaper than petrol or diesel for the distance you can cover will hammer your power bill. you may need to go over to an off peak tariff and use a timer to get the cheap rate to cut costs even further to about £3. £3 for 200 miles looks pretty good value, but without the tax on petrol and diesel being received then something else will be needed to replace that lost government income.

 

[Dustydog]

Actually Dr at the other end of the spectrum is the Nissan Note which has been available for a few years now. Centrica bought some for testing by their engineers. I wonder what their real life experience was?

 

[otherclive]

Actually Dr at the other end of the spectrum is the Nissan Note which has been available for a few years now. Centrica bought some for testing by their engineers. I wonder what their real life experience was?

I think that their engineers will have a strange experience as it will do 60+ mpg per gallon of diesel. And the only battery they will find is the one that is used to start it. That's if it's anything like ours.

Re the increase in electricity prices announced by British Gas we shouldn't forget that this is their first increase since November 2013 and they have explained that it was driven by other costs not associated with the wholesale price of energy. Of particular note are the costs associated with Government environmental policies and "initiatives' such as Smart meters. At the end of the day there's only one person to pay for these announcements, that's the consumer. I assume that caravan site operators can change suppliers if they can get a better deal. But averaged over a reasonable time period there isn't a great deal of difference between the big suppliers. As they follow my leader. Which isn't too surprising given their sources are pretty well the same, grid distribution is common and so is HMG environmental policy. So perhaps JC has a point!

 

[Dustydog]

Actually Dr at the other end of the spectrum is the Nissan Note which has been available for a few years now. Centrica bought some for testing by their engineers. I wonder what their real life experience was?

I think that their engineers will have a strange experience as it will do 60+ mpg per gallon of diesel. And the only battery they will find is the one that is used to start it. That's if it's anything like ours.

Re the increase in electricity prices announced by British Gas we shouldn't forget that this is their first increase since November 2013 and they have explained that it was driven by other costs not associated with the wholesale price of energy. Of particular note are the costs associated with Government environmental policies and "initiatives' such as Smart meters. At the end of the day there's only one person to pay for these announcements, that's the consumer. I assume that caravan site operators can change suppliers if they can get a better deal. But averaged over a reasonable time period there isn't a great deal of difference between the big suppliers. As they follow my leader. Which isn't too surprising given their sources are pretty well the same, grid distribution is common and so is HMG environmental policy. So perhaps JC has a point!

Blonde moment Clive
I meant the Leaf

 

[ProfJohnL]

Who is the JC in the context of this thread?

...
But my point was that if Nature can survive then survive she will, whatever we may think or do about it.
If it is beyond Nature's power to survive, then so be it. We cannot change what will be.

...It's an unfortunate fact that no matter what we do here in the UK our efforts will be futile because other nations show scant regard for the environment....

I never suggested the resolution would be easy, It will require some people to change their mind sets and habits from "its somebody else's responsibility" to "It's all our responsibilities to do what we can"

It may be true that some of can't contribute as much as others, but that is not an excuse to do nothing.

I do believe we can reduce our individual impacts on the environment, and every little bit helps. And the more people that try the bigger that proportion becomes,and the more effect it will have.

Lead by example, and others may begin to see the benefits of being more frugal.

Caravanning by its very nature tends to make its followers more aware of the use of resources, Why not spread some of that same canniness to running teh rest of our lives, not only to save energy, but to save money and possibly the environment.

 

[camel]

All this guff about electric powered cars might be alright for the chosen few in the Home counties, but I can just see my cousin in the area that he lives in trying to charge his Leccy car up, every buggar in the street would be hot wiring off his supply,

 

[ProfJohnL]

All this guff about electric powered cars might be alright for the chosen few in the Home counties, but I can just see my cousin in the area that he lives in trying to charge his Leccy car up, every buggar in the street would be hot wiring off his supply,

IF you had read my posts you will see I have already pointed out that Electric vehicles may not be right for every one so in the context of this thread It will be a long time before IC engines disappear completely

 

[Hutch]

All this guff about electric powered cars might be alright for the chosen few in the Home counties, but I can just see my cousin in the area that he lives in trying to charge his Leccy car up, every buggar in the street would be hot wiring off his supply,

Too true, also the idiot on their way home who decides it's a good idea to unplug the car, becausethey are miffed because they can not even afford a bike, as his rent is too high to save for a deposite for a mortgage. The Goverment needs to sort out other things first.
Sorry Rant over.
Hutch.

 

[Gafferbill]

........I have already sorted out my future transport :cheer:

I will be utilising one of the many flying pigs flushed out by this current government.
I reckon a set of four should tow a caravan quite nicely :silly: