- Jul 18, 2017
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Copied from another forum. Below is a copy of an article in the Mail on Sunday. It focuses on the supply of electric and not on EVs. You may not like everything they say, but it makes for interesting reading.
MINISTERS are convinced that electric cars are the bright green future, opening up our way to an emission-free paradise. That’s why they have taken the dramatic step of banning the sale of new diesel and petrol cars from 2030. All motorists must turn to battery power within a decade.
No wonder there was much consternation last week when the Prime Minister’s official climate spokeswoman, Allegra Stratton, stated she wouldn’t lead by example and buy an electric vehicle (EV) herself, preferring to stick with her ‘third-hand’ diesel Volkswagen. Ms Stratton argued that she visits elderly relatives living up to 250 miles away and claimed the limited range of EVs would not allow her to do that easily. On this point, she was not entirely right. The performance of electric models is improving all the time and many have a range of more than 200 miles without recharging.
But range is the least of the obstacles to a battery-powered future. The most serious is the simple fact that electric cars must be recharged from the mains. They will vastly increase the amount of electricity Britain uses. And generating electricity will remain a dirty, inefficient, highly polluting business for decades to come.
This is where the green dream comes crashing to earth. A 2030 deadline is beyond a pipedream, it is complete fantasy. As things stand, Britain is already on the verge of power cuts. The hope, of course, is that all these electric cars and vans would be powered by sources of renewable energy, such as wind or solar, or nuclear reactors. Indeed, if that was the case, electric motoring would be largely emissions-free.
But our national power grid is a long way from eliminating fossil fuels and it is unlikely to do so for decades. Yes, coal-powered generation has declined sharply since 1993, when it provided nearly half Britain’s power, and it is true that much of the gap has been filled by renewables. But wind is an intermittent source of energy, and it doesn’t take a genius to work out that solar panels produce no power when it is dark and little on cloudy days. So, wind and sun can never be the complete answer. And while a record 43 per cent of electricity generation came from renewables in 2020 (albeit in the context of unusually low demand thanks to Covid-19), more than 37 per cent still derived from dirty fossil fuels, mostly from power stations using natural gas.
On cold, still nights, that figure is likely to climb to 80 per cent or more - particularly with more electric cars on the roads. In fact, by the time gas has been turned into electricity by giant power station turbines, and has reached a car’s electric motor via a leaky distribution network, the process is no more energy-efficient than Allegra Stratton’s old diesel. As long as we depend on gas, electric cars will bring no overall saving in emissions.
The alternative of biomass fuel is even less efficient. The huge Drax power station in North Yorkshire imports wood pulp from Canada to burn, but it would be greener to drive on diesel than use electricity made this way. One much talked about option is nuclear energy, but here, too, the future is no brighter. Britain’s building programme for new nuclear reactors has stalled, with costs spiralling. The price of the plant being constructed at Hinkley Point in Somerset has increased from £16 billion to £23 billion, with no end in sight to rising costs and no proof the technology works.
A similar design, Sizewell C in Suffolk, would take between nine and 12 years to complete, with a starting price tag of £20 billion, if the project ever gets approval in the first place. Yet six of the UK’s seven current nuclear reactors are planned to go offline by 2030 and the remaining one, Sizewell B, is due for decommissioning in 2035.
Here’s the rub. Britain is already running out of electricity. There simply won’t be enough to power Britain’s fleet of 32 million cars by 2030, not even if we continue to burn fossil fuels. Moreover, we are increasingly dependent on imported electricity - from Belgium, France, the Netherlands and Ireland. Meantime, there are unlikely to be enough electric car charging points - but that is of less importance if there’s no power flowing through them.
There were fewer than 250,000 plug-in cars on the road last winter, yet our national electricity system came close to breaking down. Last November, the country’s power distribution manager, National Grid, issued its second warning that Britain would be stretched. Fortunately, the worst did not happen, but the situation is acute during the winter months and early spring. That’s when prolonged periods of high pressure can stop wind turbines from turning and reduce the amount of energy generated by renewables to as little as two per cent of the total. Lights could start going out across the country if just one major power station suffers a mechanical failure or a shortage of fuel.
The problem is well known to our electricity planners, who thought they’d been given more time to solve it. In 2017, for instance, the National Grid was assuming that EV sales would only reach 90 per cent of all cars by 2050. Now, with the nearer deadline to ban petrol cars, there is no chance of generating sufficient electricity for millions of battery-powered vehicles. And, I wager, much of the smart technology we’re hoping to rely upon - more energy-efficient cars, for example - probably won’t be available.
There is talk of asking EV owners to limit their recharging to off-peak periods. But, with inadequate access to charging points - especially outside London - drivers mostly have to charge their vehicles when they can. This will often be during daytime peaks, placing yet more strain on our creaky infrastructure.
And, in any case, is battery technology really so green? Mining the ores required is a highly polluting business, and often uses child labour. There’s the extra weight to consider, too. A typical EV carries 600 lb in batteries, the equivalent of two adult passengers. If all 32 million of Britain’s cars really were battery-powered, they would be carrying an extra 8.5 million tons - the same as powering an extra five million vehicles.
So, Ms Stratton is right to stick to her old Volkswagen. Perhaps she knows, too, that batteries are particularly inefficient in cold weather, when the range is reduced. Who wants to be stuck at a freezing, windswept service station, waiting for a vacant charging point? Perhaps she also knows, privately, that the 2030 deadline is both unworkable and dangerous.
This green revolution on the roads risks turning the lights out across Britain. And it isn’t even green
MINISTERS are convinced that electric cars are the bright green future, opening up our way to an emission-free paradise. That’s why they have taken the dramatic step of banning the sale of new diesel and petrol cars from 2030. All motorists must turn to battery power within a decade.
No wonder there was much consternation last week when the Prime Minister’s official climate spokeswoman, Allegra Stratton, stated she wouldn’t lead by example and buy an electric vehicle (EV) herself, preferring to stick with her ‘third-hand’ diesel Volkswagen. Ms Stratton argued that she visits elderly relatives living up to 250 miles away and claimed the limited range of EVs would not allow her to do that easily. On this point, she was not entirely right. The performance of electric models is improving all the time and many have a range of more than 200 miles without recharging.
But range is the least of the obstacles to a battery-powered future. The most serious is the simple fact that electric cars must be recharged from the mains. They will vastly increase the amount of electricity Britain uses. And generating electricity will remain a dirty, inefficient, highly polluting business for decades to come.
This is where the green dream comes crashing to earth. A 2030 deadline is beyond a pipedream, it is complete fantasy. As things stand, Britain is already on the verge of power cuts. The hope, of course, is that all these electric cars and vans would be powered by sources of renewable energy, such as wind or solar, or nuclear reactors. Indeed, if that was the case, electric motoring would be largely emissions-free.
But our national power grid is a long way from eliminating fossil fuels and it is unlikely to do so for decades. Yes, coal-powered generation has declined sharply since 1993, when it provided nearly half Britain’s power, and it is true that much of the gap has been filled by renewables. But wind is an intermittent source of energy, and it doesn’t take a genius to work out that solar panels produce no power when it is dark and little on cloudy days. So, wind and sun can never be the complete answer. And while a record 43 per cent of electricity generation came from renewables in 2020 (albeit in the context of unusually low demand thanks to Covid-19), more than 37 per cent still derived from dirty fossil fuels, mostly from power stations using natural gas.
On cold, still nights, that figure is likely to climb to 80 per cent or more - particularly with more electric cars on the roads. In fact, by the time gas has been turned into electricity by giant power station turbines, and has reached a car’s electric motor via a leaky distribution network, the process is no more energy-efficient than Allegra Stratton’s old diesel. As long as we depend on gas, electric cars will bring no overall saving in emissions.
The alternative of biomass fuel is even less efficient. The huge Drax power station in North Yorkshire imports wood pulp from Canada to burn, but it would be greener to drive on diesel than use electricity made this way. One much talked about option is nuclear energy, but here, too, the future is no brighter. Britain’s building programme for new nuclear reactors has stalled, with costs spiralling. The price of the plant being constructed at Hinkley Point in Somerset has increased from £16 billion to £23 billion, with no end in sight to rising costs and no proof the technology works.
A similar design, Sizewell C in Suffolk, would take between nine and 12 years to complete, with a starting price tag of £20 billion, if the project ever gets approval in the first place. Yet six of the UK’s seven current nuclear reactors are planned to go offline by 2030 and the remaining one, Sizewell B, is due for decommissioning in 2035.
Here’s the rub. Britain is already running out of electricity. There simply won’t be enough to power Britain’s fleet of 32 million cars by 2030, not even if we continue to burn fossil fuels. Moreover, we are increasingly dependent on imported electricity - from Belgium, France, the Netherlands and Ireland. Meantime, there are unlikely to be enough electric car charging points - but that is of less importance if there’s no power flowing through them.
There were fewer than 250,000 plug-in cars on the road last winter, yet our national electricity system came close to breaking down. Last November, the country’s power distribution manager, National Grid, issued its second warning that Britain would be stretched. Fortunately, the worst did not happen, but the situation is acute during the winter months and early spring. That’s when prolonged periods of high pressure can stop wind turbines from turning and reduce the amount of energy generated by renewables to as little as two per cent of the total. Lights could start going out across the country if just one major power station suffers a mechanical failure or a shortage of fuel.
The problem is well known to our electricity planners, who thought they’d been given more time to solve it. In 2017, for instance, the National Grid was assuming that EV sales would only reach 90 per cent of all cars by 2050. Now, with the nearer deadline to ban petrol cars, there is no chance of generating sufficient electricity for millions of battery-powered vehicles. And, I wager, much of the smart technology we’re hoping to rely upon - more energy-efficient cars, for example - probably won’t be available.
There is talk of asking EV owners to limit their recharging to off-peak periods. But, with inadequate access to charging points - especially outside London - drivers mostly have to charge their vehicles when they can. This will often be during daytime peaks, placing yet more strain on our creaky infrastructure.
And, in any case, is battery technology really so green? Mining the ores required is a highly polluting business, and often uses child labour. There’s the extra weight to consider, too. A typical EV carries 600 lb in batteries, the equivalent of two adult passengers. If all 32 million of Britain’s cars really were battery-powered, they would be carrying an extra 8.5 million tons - the same as powering an extra five million vehicles.
So, Ms Stratton is right to stick to her old Volkswagen. Perhaps she knows, too, that batteries are particularly inefficient in cold weather, when the range is reduced. Who wants to be stuck at a freezing, windswept service station, waiting for a vacant charging point? Perhaps she also knows, privately, that the 2030 deadline is both unworkable and dangerous.
This green revolution on the roads risks turning the lights out across Britain. And it isn’t even green
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