Going Green isn’t easy

[ProfJohnL]

God help you if you get a heat pump.
1) Lot more expensive to run than a gas heating system
2) A lot more costly to repair or replace in 10 years time
3) Dont believe the salesmans bullshit about COPs of 6+ ( they struggle to hit COPs 2 in the middle of winter. )
4) Try getting a quote for annual service compared to a gas service. ( will be 2 to 3 times dearer for the ashp )

It seems you may have decided your opinion about HP's and that is fine as everyone is entitled to make up their own mind, but if your opinion is based on the criteria you have listed, then sadly I have to disagree with those statements and the conclusions you seem to draw from them,

You complain that an HP is "Lot more expensive to run than a gas heating system" that depends on which tariffs are you comparing, and is that comparison over the same environmental conditions? All the published reports show that HP's can be more efficient (energy in to heat energy out) than gas or any other type of heating device.

As for replacement costs in the future, Firstly rather like the dire warnings of EV batteries failing in 5 or fewer years made by the pro fossil fuel lobby, It's too early to predict the failure rates of HP's. Granted that if the present day cost differences between HP's and other heating systems were maintained, then it's possible but not certain that HP's may continue to be more expensive, BUT even if that will be the case, the cost savings of using an HP over a gas or resistive electric heating will offset the present day price differentials, BUT again as HP's become more popular their relative costs will fall, and its highly likely the cost of gas boilers will rise as demand for them drops, so it's highly likely HP's will approach parity with gas boilers in the future.

I do agree that a HP's COP of 6 or more is unlikely to be regularly achieved, and that in winter the COP is likely to be lower, but even if falls as low as 2 as you suggest, You seem to ignore the fact that means it is still 200% efficient! Even condensing gas boilers lose some of their high nineties efficiency in winter because the boiler is has to work harder but even the best gas boiler cannot achieve the 200% or more of a HP.

As HP's are very much in the minority at the moment, there are inevitably fewer approved service agents, but as time goes by the number of agents will increase. It is perhaps too early to predict what a realistic service will cost in the future, but the consumer market forces will cause the cost to effectively drop as the number of HP's increases. Will it ever be as low as present day gas boiler services? Probably not but the same market dynamics will probably apply, as more HP services are needed, that means more service providers will be looking for work, and that will naturally for competion and drive service costs dow, and if fewer Gas boiler services are needed it's more likely gas boiler services will cost proportionately more, so HP costs will tend to match G. Boiler costs in the future. I have to stress here the change over is likely to take many decades rather than just one.

Take a look at the many learned reports from well respected organisations that actually put numbers based on scientific studies about the practicalities and both environmental and financial advantages of of heat pumps. There will be some circumstances where a heat pump is not the best solution, but provided the HP can produce the required amount of heat energy a property needs it will almost certainly more energy efficient than any other form of heating. It may need a different approach in the way its used compared to a gas boiler, but that does not mean it does not work.