Net Zero. Fact or Fiction?

[Dustydog]

As it’s Sunday forgive me putting the cat among the pigeons.

Some family and close friends work at HMG research Council involved in many free ranging topics. They passed me this link which cost £5 million of tax payers money.
The U.K. FIRES team ( Oxford ,Cambridge,Nottingham and Imperial College London Universities) through the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council prepared this report which is in the open domain for all to read. The table with key milestones is at the bottom of the page , so no need to download the whole report.
Just imagine at 2030 only Heathrow , Glasgow and Belfast airports will be open to the public?

I’d love to know what the scientists amongst you think. I have no view other than I just want to live a quiet happy caravanning life for the next ten years being sensible. NB I gave up smoking decades ago and do recycle regularly😉

https://ukfires.org/impact/publications/reports/absolute-zero/

 

[Mr Plodd]

Below is what I think Dustydog meant as being at the bottom of the page, interesting reading ,,

• 
  Apart from flying and shipping, all of our current uses of energy could be electrified. With tremendous commitment the UK could generate enough non-emitting electricity to deliver about 60% of our current final energy-demand, but we could make better use of that through incremental changes in the technologies that convert energy into transport, heating and products.
• If we only used electricity, delivering all the transport, heat and goods we use in the UK would require 3x more electricity than we use today. If we expand renewables as fast as we can, we could deliver about 60% of this requirement with zero emissions in 2050. Therefore in 2050 we must plan to use 40% less energy than we use today, and all of it must be electric.
• In addition to reducing our energy demand, delivering zero emissions with today’s technologies requires the phasing out of flying, shipping, lamb and beef, blast-furnace steel and cement. Of these, shipping is currently crucial to our well-being – we import 50% of our food – and we don’t know how to build new buildings or install renewables without cement. The need for this restraint will be relieved as innovation is deployed but many of our most valued activities can continue and expand, and Absolute Zero creates opportunities for growth in many areas.
• With incremental changes to our habits and technologies, there are multiple options for living just as well as we do today, with 60% of the energy. With electric heat pumps and better insulation we can stay just as warm. With smaller electric cars we can keep moving, and by using materials better, we can make buildings and goods compatible with our zero emissions law.
• Most of today’s UK lifestyles can continue and grow within the target of Absolute Zero. Changing the way we travel (in particular not flying, and making better use of wheeled vehicles), stay warm (using electric heat pumps instead of gas boilers) and eat (cutting out lamb and beef) are the most important changes that we would notice. In parallel, small changes in the design of buildings and vehicles can make them more efficient. However the biggest challenge revealed in this section is the use of shipping for freight: at the moment we have no alternatives.
• Because of the emissions associated with their production, cement and new steel cannot be produced with zero emissions. Steel can be recycled effectively, but we need urgent innovation to find a cement supply. Under the conditions of Absolute Zero, the availability of most other materials will be proportion to the amount of non-emitting electricity available to the sector.
• Construction uses half of all steel and all cement, but has developed to use them inefficiently. The requirements for materials in construction could be reduced to achieve Absolute Zero by avoiding over-specification and over-design, by structural optimisation and with re-use.
• Driven by inventive new embodied emissions standards, manufacturing will adapt to three major changes: 1) reduced availability of current inputs, 2) radically different product composition and requirements, and 3) the existential need for improved resource efficiency.
• The problem with breakthrough technologies is not our shortage of ideas, but the very long time required to take a laboratory-scale idea through the technical and commercial development cycle before it can begin to capture a substantial share of the world market.
• No one actor can bring about Absolute Zero. Delivering it is a journey depending on co-operative action by individuals, businesses and governments acting on good information.
• Changes to social norms and individual behaviours can be positively framed to appeal to human fulfilment. Motivated individuals can be as effective at work as at home.
• Agreed roadmaps, new forms of market pull and collaboration are needed to spread the required technological innovation through industry.
• The effective price of carbon must be prohibitively large by 2050. A key issue for how to implement this is the timeline for how the price must grow (or restrictions must become more strict) from now to 2050.
• Good information is critical to transitions in individual behaviour, business operations and in supporting government action, but there are challenges to overcome in collecting and communicating the required information effectively to support decisions and influence behaviour.
• Absolute zero requires societal change. This will provide opportunities for growth in business, education and research, governance and industrial strategy. To achieve zero emissions we must only pursue the right opportunities and restrain activities which are no longer compatible with a zero emission society.

 

[Dustydog]

Thanks Mr Plodd. That’s the bit. I didn’t want to quote verbatim but you have summed it up,as was . Thanks.
Definitely food for thought especially at £5 million cost of all the University boffins.
A very interesting read.

 

[Mr Plodd]

I just copy and pasted, took seconds.

 

[RogerL]

Average car weight down to 1000 kg by 2049 - can you imagine caravan makers matching that reduction - but according to the projection holidays will need to be in places you can travel by electric train.

 

[otherclive]

Am I glad that pork will still be available, although many may not.

 

[Mr Plodd]

I am 70, and I reckon my generation will go down as the most fortunate ever. I am very glad I have had the opportunity to fly around the world and visit wonderful places like Hawaii, Petra, Kenya, Cambodia etc and enjoy personal transport (cars) along with motorhomes and caravans.

 

[GaryB]

I’m a few years younger at 55, but definitely of the belief of “enjoy it while we can, we’ve never had it so good”. Future generations could well be in for a very different life….

 

[otherclive]

Average car weight down to 1000 kg by 2049 - can you imagine caravan makers matching that reduction - but according to the projection holidays will need to be in places you can travel by electric train.

Does it exclude going on holiday in your 1000kg electric car? The weight should be doable as this 1990 beauty came in at 1180kg with its 2.5 litre 6 cylinder engine. But the electric variant wouldn’t sound as nice.

 

[Dustydog]

 

[RogerL]

Does it exclude going on holiday in your 1000kg electric car? The weight should be doable as this 1990 beauty came in at 1180kg with its 2.5 litre 6 cylinder engine. But the electric variant wouldn’t sound as nice.


View attachment 7803

The extra weight of modern safety systems have had a major effect on vehicle weight - they aren't going to be removed.

 

[Buckman]

Sadly other scientists are working on missiles that could create an EMP blast which will destroy any electronics, but leave infrastructure and humans intact.

Every winter we have power cuts lasting anything between 30 minutes and several hours. Imagine no signal to a mobile phone as tower not broadcasting or they cannot recharge their phone. Most of the younger generation will probably go into melt down and need counseling for the next year!

 

[otherclive]

Sadly other scientists are working on missiles that could create an EMP blast which will destroy any electronics, but leave infrastructure and humans intact.

Every winter we have power cuts lasting anything between 30 minutes and several hours. Imagine no signal to a mobile phone as tower not broadcasting or they cannot recharge their phone. Most of the younger generation will probably go into melt down and need counseling for the next year!

High altitude nuclear EMP tests were carried out by the US and Soviets in the 1950-60s and that’s one reason military systems are designed to have resistance to EMP. You better hang on to your Corolla as little else would work following such an explosion. However what you could use it for is anyone’s guess 😂

 

[Sam Vimes]

Sadly other scientists are working on missiles that could create an EMP blast which will destroy any electronics, but leave infrastructure and humans intact.

Every winter we have power cuts lasting anything between 30 minutes and several hours. Imagine no signal to a mobile phone as tower not broadcasting or they cannot recharge their phone. Most of the younger generation will probably go into melt down and need counseling for the next year!

My Grandaughter asked her Mum how she found things out before the Internet and Google. Mum said she went to the Library. Shock, Horror. "What if the library wasn't open?" "Well you waited until it was".

 

[Sam Vimes]

High altitude nuclear EMP tests were carried out by the US and Soviets in the 1950-60s and that’s one reason military systems are designed to have resistance to EMP. You better hang on to your Corolla as little else would work following such an explosion. However what you could use it for is anyone’s guess 😂

This was a frequent requirement in the systems I worked on - the ability to survive an EMP strike. As well as nearby nuclear detonation. The system had to survive, the crew -uh!

Even Military and Commercial Aircraft have to have a tolerance to High Energy Particles at High Altitudes - on their safety critical systems at least. Doesn't matter if the drinks trolley doesn't work

 

[otherclive]

Average car weight down to 1000 kg by 2049 - can you imagine caravan makers matching that reduction - but according to the projection holidays will need to be in places you can travel by electric train.

I hope that future electric train services don’t need crews. Yesterday my wife and daughter went to Wembley. They had booked the 0926 to Paddington with seats reserved. On Saturday evening GWRs site showed it had been cancelled, and the two afterwards showed as amber. Sunday morning showed the amber ones now at red and cancelled. An earlier one at around 0845 was showing amber as was an unscheduled one for 0919. I was on standby to drive them. When at 0925 my daughter rang and said the “unscheduled “ 0919 was running late so could I whisk them to the station. At 0940 I dropped them off and still no sign of a train. The platform was heaving. Eventually they did catch the much delayed and “unscheduled “ train. No tickets could be checked on train or at Paddington and given it had at least three train loads of passenger they didn’t get a seat.

The return journey was as bad as no intercity trains were stopping at Chippenham so after a long wait they caught a train to Swindon followed by another wait to catch a local service that could stop at an unmanned station. Both journeys are eligible for full refunds. What a sorry state. It even made the BBC news but the article undersells the true state of affairs. I thought recent pay rises were intended to resolve Sunday working issues. Clearly not so.

Trains between Bristol and London cancelled due to crew shortages

GWR warns trains between the West and London will be busy due to several cancellations.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[trevormonty]

High altitude nuclear EMP tests were carried out by the US and Soviets in the 1950-60s and that’s one reason military systems are designed to have resistance to EMP. You better hang on to your Corolla as little else would work following such an explosion. However what you could use it for is anyone’s guess 😂

The Corolla electronic engine management system would be toast. If you are lucky enoigh to still have working <1980 car then good luck refuelling without electricity.

It will be back walking and bikes.

 

[Buckman]

If it is just one person travelling it is cheaper to go by train. If two or more then cheaper to use the car!

 

[Buckman]

The Corolla electronic engine management system would be toast. If you are lucky enoigh to still have working <1980 car then good luck refuelling without electricity.

It will be back walking and bikes.

I don't think our 1996 Corolla has an engine management system?

 

[RogerL]

I don't think our 1996 Corolla has an engine management system?

It will as it'll be fuel-injected to meet emissions regulations - you'd need to go back to the early 80s to get cars with no electronics

 

[Buckman]

It will as it'll be fuel-injected to meet emissions regulations - you'd need to go back to the early 80s to get cars with no electronics

I always assumed that the carburetor did that job and that explains why it has no points! Learning something about the car every day and we have had for over 12 years.

 

[RogerL]

I always assumed that the carburetor did that job and that explains why it has no points! Learning something about the car every day and we have had for over 12 years.

Carburettors were abandoned in favour of fuel-injection when emission regulations came in - around 1990 but not all models switched at the same time.