Our7kw charger is installed on Monday, £909list price £559with go grant fitted. Charges our Mini in 4-5hrs apparently from flat. 22kw is available as are lower powered ones but as Prof says you may well need a home power supply upgrade.
I'm not condoning the negative prospects for caravanning. It would be nice to see some recognition for the sector, but we may have a rather inflated view of its importance in the grand scheme of things.
I had not appreciated the ban did not apply to hybrids and there area few out there that will tow caravans well enough so that should mean they are not dead yet. Diesel and petrol cars will not disappear even if the ban is implemented in 2030, which looks impossible unless the infrastructure to support it is developed far faster than most believe possible. Even the mains cables in the street may need to be upgraded and how you deal with areas where people do not have a private drive to keep the car on is still in the air. Possibly the diesels and petrol models will get a boost in value as people who prefer them will want the last ones. Certainly the demand for petrol and diesel will remain for some time but as yet we do not know the cost.
The battery range has increased rapidly and there is every possibility they will be up to towing by 2030 although charging will still have to take time and the room needed to charge with a caravan on the back could be a problem.
I know people doubt we will have the generation capacity, by my nephew who is CEO of one of the suppliers is happy that this will not be a problem. I just hope he is not over optomistic.
The battery range has increased rapidly and there is every possibility they will be up to towing by 2030 although charging will still have to take time and the room needed to charge with a caravan on the back could be a problem.
I know people doubt we will have the generation capacity, by my nephew who is CEO of one of the suppliers is happy that this will not be a problem. I just hope he is not over optomistic.
Hello Ray,
I think you underestimate the push that IS going into EV infrastructure, and that push will accelerate quite dramatically . There is a long way to go but it is eminently possible, as Norway has proven. There companies who are actively pushing to introduce charging points built into street furniture like street lamps, and bollards.
For those who may not have access to home or street side charging there will be the network of public fast charge points at supermarkets and other retailers, carparks and of course service stations. Zap Map has recorded 118 new public chargers added in the last 30 days . There are no almost 9000 public charging points available - and growing.
I shall repeat, The National grid has stated it can cope with the increase in EV's without needing to put in major upgrades to the supply cable capacities. The reason this is likely is becasue domestic charging units will be typically limited to about 7Kw (which is no greater than an electric shower) and the demand to recharge EV's is unlikely to coincide with daily peak demands for other reasons.
Most EV's manage to do between 3 to 5 miles per kWH, and as commutes on average are less than 30 mile round trips, that only needs between 6 to 10kWh of energy to be replenished. Even allowing for some of the losses in the charging systems, most cars will be topped up in 2 to 3 hours of charging!
I have done some rough calculations:-
We currently have about 38M cars and small vans on UK roads. there are typically 2.3M new cars added annually (and something in the region of 1.2M taken off the roads. This means we have an net increase of about 1.1M yearly that is roughly 3% turnover annually. Figures to the end of Sept 2020 indicate we have 370K EVe and hybrids on our roads that's roughly 1% of the car population. Even if all new cars sold from to-day were EV's at 2030 (10 years ) we are not likely to have more than 31% of the car population registered as EV's. Realistically it will still be less than that as not everyone will buy electric. It's more likely to be about 20%.
Based on a 3% turn over it will take something like 40 years to effectively remove all ICE cars from our roads. There may of course be other factors introduced that might accelerate the change.
There is ample time (provide people plan adequately) to manage this changeover with little pain or risk of the system collapsing. It needs most drivers to drop the conventional approach of running a vehicle till it's nearly empty of fuel and adopt the idea of topping up every day (or over night).
EV's combined with localised storage systems in homes is actually good for the power generators as it can be used to balance and even out distribution issues when faults occur or maintenance is required.
Well if i get a Mitsubishi Outlander Phev plug in Hybrid in the future before 2035 at least i could tow a caravan still that is one option . by then we will looking at holidays either a static or a lodge with a hot tub .
A sledge hammer to crack a nut! EVs will be and are part of today and tomorrow’s lives. Banning new ICE by 2030, exceptions agreed, may not be the magic we want. The strides in controlling pollutant emissions from diesels over the last twenty years have been just as fantastic as the progress on EVs.
The adblue systems to reduce NOx , particulate exhaust filters, lean burn etc have improved dramatically. I suspect by 2030 it may be possible technologically speaking to have a totally pollution free ICE.
EVs will clearly have a place but I am not convinced a total dismissal of ICE is valid.
Politics does come into this. 20 years or so ago Tony Blair encouraged me to go diesel, scrapped all the nuclear power stations, . Now see what we have🤪🤪
The adblue systems to reduce NOx , particulate exhaust filters, lean burn etc have improved dramatically. I suspect by 2030 it may be possible technologically speaking to have a totally pollution free ICE.
EVs will clearly have a place but I am not convinced a total dismissal of ICE is valid.
Politics does come into this. 20 years or so ago Tony Blair encouraged me to go diesel, scrapped all the nuclear power stations, . Now see what we have🤪🤪
Apart from improved fuel economy none of the emission systems fitted to diesels reduce CO2 and the improved fuel economy had been almost counteracted by increased vehicle usage and numbers. However any move to petrol is exacerbating CO2 as the petrol engine is less efficient than the diesel. So a petrol hybrid could be a questionable gain.
One crumb of comfort may be that Britain has been completely unable to achieve its own legally required clean air targets. I suspect this latest announcement is more to do with our forthcoming hosting of the Climate Change Conference in Glasgow next year. And thus far we have fallen short of most climate control targets. So a big idea was required otherwise it could reflect badly on our level of commitment when trying to persuade other nations to sign up to whatever.
Be interesting to see where we stand by end 2021 😂
Your making me feel incredibly guilty in my choice of car which will now be given a good run for its money at 0-60 mph by a Leaf, assuming the Leaf driver survives the blast of carbon dioxide from the XT 😂
One crumb of comfort may be that Britain has been completely unable to achieve its own legally required clean air targets. I suspect this latest announcement is more to do with our forthcoming hosting of the Climate Change Conference in Glasgow next year. And thus far we have fallen short of most climate control targets. So a big idea was required otherwise it could reflect badly on our level of commitment when trying to persuade other nations to sign up to whatever.
Be interesting to see where we stand by end 2021 😂
Your making me feel incredibly guilty in my choice of car which will now be given a good run for its money at 0-60 mph by a Leaf, assuming the Leaf driver survives the blast of carbon dioxide from the XT 😂
Here’s one for you Clive.
New caravan post 2030 will be fitted with axle mounted electric motors , on board battery banks to supplement the towing range of the EV. Like we have spare wheels, all will come with a rapid charge ICE generator for emergencies 🤪🤪👍
New caravan post 2030 will be fitted with axle mounted electric motors , on board battery banks to supplement the towing range of the EV. Like we have spare wheels, all will come with a rapid charge ICE generator for emergencies 🤪🤪👍
Dusty
I like the configuration. Hopefully the ICE generator might still be in the front of the tow vehicle, other than for a Porsche. 😱
Not so revolutionary actually!
One concept for an electric car several years ago consisted of a car with a quite modest battery capacity that would see it doing its daily commute. The problem of needing to go further was resolved by filling a trailer with a bigger battery which was towed and connected to the car then took the car over the greater distance. If that was insufficient you went to the nearest swap station to exchange it for a fully charged one.
There are some quite daunting regulations concerning a coupled vehicle with motive drive in both sections, so putting driving wheels on a caravan might be a no no, but most EV's have plenty of drive power, all they need is the battery capacity, so if a caravan could have additional batteries (not withstanding the weight issues) it might be a way of extending towing range. The battery could be charged from the EHU.
it all depends how much this idea electric tow car will cost in my case it will have to be Automatic MPV/SUV .because these are at the right height of my wheelchair .
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The reality come post 2030 could be so low a number of owners with the B+ E license that caravans like our leviathans will have too low a market to remain products anyway?
Anything serving what we regard as a "caravan" will be lightweight, therefore easier married with the cars available.
I suspect there will be a resurgence in what we these days think of as a trailer tent or folding camper, to get both the weight and drag loading way down, so towing uses up less battery energy. I have little doubt these will be revamped styling wise to be given a "cool" image.
Anything serving what we regard as a "caravan" will be lightweight, therefore easier married with the cars available.
I suspect there will be a resurgence in what we these days think of as a trailer tent or folding camper, to get both the weight and drag loading way down, so towing uses up less battery energy. I have little doubt these will be revamped styling wise to be given a "cool" image.
The concept goes way back, to my knowledge the Kips in the 80s and here in the UK the ABI Adventura LINK.
Minimising the drag even more as with folders, will I suspect also be a goal.
What is the chancellor of any government going to do to plug a £40 billion black hole. If you do not use a vehicle at all, will you still be penalised i.e. increases on public transport etc?
Hi Prof, I do not underestimate the problem and do have an insight into it. The investment needed though is very high indeed and there is no guarantee this will be available.
I agree that the peak demand for power will probably be at night, but with one neighbour having five cars parked in their drive and most having two or three, unless this changes there will be problems. How we cope with needs serious thought, areas of terraced housing and flats where cars are parked on the street will not only need numerous charging points but also some way of preventing trailing cables being a tripping hazard.
One major problem of charging on the road is more to do with space rather than anything else. On average I am told motorway services can refuel about 300 cars an hour with a filling time of less than 5 minutes. At the moment even the fast chargers are well in excess of this and the idea of it getting low enough to manage that number that quickly looks unlikely. That would mean vastly larger areas would be needed for refuelling or adding more charging points elsewhere.
There are other problems in that at the moment the spaces are laid out for one car, this will not work in the future when vans and vehicles with trailers including caravans will want access so the areas will need to be bigger.
The time taken to charge at the moment also means problems with people leaving their cars and going for a break leaving the space taken for longer than it should. Basically you have to schedule a top around 200 miles in most cars now and that makes a stop for a coffee or a meal appealing. There have also been problems here with people driving to work and using street charging points to recharge but being unable or unwilling to return to move it later.
Possibly nothing is insurmountable but it needs more thought and investment.
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Prof, as Norway you say has "proven" eminently possible solutions, what was their solution for the vehicles owned by those dwelling in high rise tenements?
That is one area where mass adoption of rechargable EVs is in my opinion going to be exceptionally challenging here, so it would be welcomed if we could know how Norway has managed to cope.
Thanks Ray,
Nine years is quite a long time, and a lot can happen - in fact a lot will happen. If you try to reconcile the needs of the future just by looking at today's solutions, things do look bleak. EV's with small battery capacity and long charge times , low numbers of charge points, etc.
But we are going to have to change our habits and expectations. There will always a few situations where an EV or the infrastructure is not practical or as convenient, but as I projected there will still be ICE vehicles around for several decades beyond 2030.
So even by 2030 we won't need to have all the infrastructure that will ultimately needed when only EV's are on the roads. Realistically there will be more like 20 to 30 years to prepare.
Nine years is quite a long time, and a lot can happen - in fact a lot will happen. If you try to reconcile the needs of the future just by looking at today's solutions, things do look bleak. EV's with small battery capacity and long charge times , low numbers of charge points, etc.
But we are going to have to change our habits and expectations. There will always a few situations where an EV or the infrastructure is not practical or as convenient, but as I projected there will still be ICE vehicles around for several decades beyond 2030.
So even by 2030 we won't need to have all the infrastructure that will ultimately needed when only EV's are on the roads. Realistically there will be more like 20 to 30 years to prepare.
Maybe the charging issue is more easily resolved than we think.
What‘s wrong with induction charging.?No leads. It’s even possible to have stretches of roads supplying induction electricity whilst on the move.
Even those living in flats will be able to park over an induction base.
What‘s wrong with induction charging.?No leads. It’s even possible to have stretches of roads supplying induction electricity whilst on the move.
Even those living in flats will be able to park over an induction base.
Development is most certainly increasing, but I am a little sceptical about car manufacturers investing with caravanning in mind as its a very small proportion of the number of vehicles they do produce. I totally agree the weight and torque characteristics of EV's in theory makes them potentially great for towing.
I thought the hit to public finances was more like £200 bn+ Rather than cutting right back on public services I’d prefer an increase in income tax despite the manifesto saying this would not happen. I don’t think they anticipated Covid. Also an increase in VED and fuel duty. To my mind it’s a nonsense foregoing VED with such low or zero rates for small cars or hybrids that managed to skirt the old rules. Not only was VED zero or low for some but the Government also lost out by reduced take on fuel duties too. If you use roads you should pay towards their use. Fairest would be to lump it all on fuel. (Incoming) 🤭 or a flat fee for electric vehicles. Then in the future decide what might be the best way to charge IE road charging by usage.
Surely the reduction in VED as you describe was to encourage people, to buy “green “ cars.
I wonder just how much pollution will be saved by EVs? Ie what is the pollution cost of manufacture and batteries using rare metals? Say an average person does 10 k pa,a lean burn ice may not actually be a big pollution contributor . After all ice and ev manufacturing costs must come into the equation?
That view is counter to a lot of good evidence!
If your trying to compare the environmental impact of ICE and EV's then you have to look at whole life impact, and not just construction.
If you're including the battery of an EV, then you must do the same for ICE and include the extraction refining transportation of petroleum fuels for the whole vehicle life. Other factors such as reduced wear on brakes in EV's due to regenerative braking, lesl lubrication fluids to be changed. Engine air filters etc No exhausts or catalytic converters or DPF's that use rare earths etc.
Energy studies consistently show that even allowing for inefficiencies of fuel burning power stations, EV's are at least twice to three times as efficient as any ICE engined vehicle including Hybrids. Add to that the proportion of power generated by renewables in the UK is growing and that is further driving down the environmental impact of running an EV.
Once the petroleum fuel has be burnt its gone. With a battery when it reaches the end of its useful life in a car, it can continue to give good service in other applications e.g Home power storage solutions), and there already companies doing this.
I have seen no studies where a fair whole vehicle life consideration does not show the EV's are environmentally and economically better overall.
On the question VED, There is nothing to stop the Government revising the VED criteria such that it is levied against EV's. I actually expect this to begin to happen, but I don't want to suggest the criteria they may use to set varying rates of EV VED.
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