Seems that the idea of giving 1 jab provides somewhat more than 50%. But figure are guesstimates. The statisticians recon that by getting a larger number partly covered will be more effective and lead to speedier removal of restrictions.
It also seems that we have Tony Blair to thank for the idea.
John
I believe the Gov's, reasoning is based on the data from the vaccine trials, and the most important outcome where for the Oxford /AZ vaccine apparently produced enough of an immunity response after the first dose had had time to become effective, none of the recipients needed to be hospitalised. This did not mean none became ill, just the symptoms were less severe.
The second dose builds on that immune reaction to reduce symptoms further or indeed prevent the virus from taking hold.
I don't know where the Gov. has got the idea that the period between doses can be extended and the full efficacy of the vaccines will be maintained, and that idea has been challenged by the WHO.
But throughout the pandemic, one of the principal foci of the Gov strategy has been to modulate restrictions according to the load on the NHS. We are in uncharted waters at the moment with the hospitals now at bursting point with Covid patients, hence the lockdown.
If the vaccines do provide enough protection with a single dose to stop people needing hospitalisation then clearly that is a significant factor. The quicker the
bulk of the population can be vaccinated, the sooner the pressure on the NHS will be reduced, and that means restrictions may be eased sooner. But, and its a big BUT; As long as there a significant number of people who are extremely vulnerable, the rest of the population including those who have been vaccinated will continue to need to take strong precautions. And becasue the jury is still out on whether vaccinated people can continue to infect others, The gov seems to suggest they still can, so it seems essential to assume they can until evidence shows otherwise.
Consequently until the virus's routes of transmission are broken some restrictions will be inevitable. Unfortunately, I don't believe the virus can be completely eradicated now. Its had too long to establish new hosts (could well be in other animals) and it will I think persistently pop up in different localities from time to time as mutations produce new strains.
The new UK variant has dramatically changed the dynamic of this pandemic. It should be very clear from the way that the restriction tiers have failed to control its spread, so more draconian measures were essential. Whilst the headlines features of the virus and the measures may well understood, some of the details have not been so well publicised. You only have to watch the news to see how poorly informed some people are about helping to control it.
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