Second Lockdown 😥😥😥😥😥😥😥

[Dustydog]

Thanks Clive
it seems odd to me that the BMI private Swindon hospital has no appointments for over one year yet their sister BMI in Bath are seeing me so quickly. I guess it’s one big lottery🤪🤪

 

[otherclive]

Re Israeli vaccination "success"... 12% of 8.6 million is a million people. Depending on how you want to compare things, you could say the UK has done well with 25% of the over80's already having been vaccinated

Yes given the Christmas break and the logistics of administering the Pfizer vaccine UK has done well and made a good start.

 

[Dustydog]

We must assume the vaccine manufacturers know what they are doing. When they say we need two jabs 3/4 weeks apart to gain a satisfactory immunity I believe them.
So why are the SAGE people saying go for one jab and get 50% immunity allowing twice as many people to be jabbed. 50 % is better than nothing but does that mean we will need lockdown even longer than currently proposed.

 

[otherclive]

Thanks Clive
it seems odd to me that the BMI private Swindon hospital has no appointments for over one year yet their sister BMI in Bath are seeing me so quickly. I guess it’s one big lottery🤪🤪

Dusty
it might be that the GWHis sending patients to the BMI from your local health trusts as GWH serves quite a large area and isn’t a big hospital, and unlike Bath RUH, is now set up as a Covid Pfizer vaccination hub. But as you say could be a lottery.

 

[Jcloughie]

We must assume the vaccine manufacturers know what they are doing. When they say we need two jabs 3/4 weeks apart to gain a satisfactory immunity I believe them.
So why are the SAGE people saying go for one jab and get 50% immunity allowing twice as many people to be jabbed. 50 % is better than nothing but does that mean we will need lockdown even longer than currently proposed.

Seems that the idea of giving 1 jab provides somewhat more than 50%. But figure are guesstimates. The statisticians recon that by getting a larger number partly covered will be more effective and lead to speedier removal of restrictions.

It also seems that we have Tony Blair to thank for the idea.

John

 

[Jcloughie]

Sorry to hear of these sad stories from Parksy ,Clive and John.
I may be luckier. I am due to see a knee Consultant at the BMI Bath on the 20 th January. Not bad considering my GP referred me on the 1st December. It seems the NHS are paying the private hospitals for orthopaedic work. The BMI near me has no appointments for at least a year. Hence Bath which is 30 minutes away. Seems to be a post code lottery. I hope you guys and your families get sorted soon. Maybe it’s worth looking further afield for treatment. Apart from Gabs has anyone else been offered the vaccine yet?

I agree that it’s a lottery. But you just have to make the best of the situation. Covid is bound to show up weaknesses in an already overstretched system.

Regarding my wife. Her knee got much better all on its own and as she hates the idea of an op, particularly at this time. She is happy to wait. But our friend who is now on two waiting lists for two painful conditions. Is a different matter.

John

 

[ProfJohnL]

Seems that the idea of giving 1 jab provides somewhat more than 50%. But figure are guesstimates. The statisticians recon that by getting a larger number partly covered will be more effective and lead to speedier removal of restrictions.

It also seems that we have Tony Blair to thank for the idea.

John

I believe the Gov's, reasoning is based on the data from the vaccine trials, and the most important outcome where for the Oxford /AZ vaccine apparently produced enough of an immunity response after the first dose had had time to become effective, none of the recipients needed to be hospitalised. This did not mean none became ill, just the symptoms were less severe.

The second dose builds on that immune reaction to reduce symptoms further or indeed prevent the virus from taking hold.

I don't know where the Gov. has got the idea that the period between doses can be extended and the full efficacy of the vaccines will be maintained, and that idea has been challenged by the WHO.

But throughout the pandemic, one of the principal foci of the Gov strategy has been to modulate restrictions according to the load on the NHS. We are in uncharted waters at the moment with the hospitals now at bursting point with Covid patients, hence the lockdown.

If the vaccines do provide enough protection with a single dose to stop people needing hospitalisation then clearly that is a significant factor. The quicker the bulk of the population can be vaccinated, the sooner the pressure on the NHS will be reduced, and that means restrictions may be eased sooner. But, and its a big BUT; As long as there a significant number of people who are extremely vulnerable, the rest of the population including those who have been vaccinated will continue to need to take strong precautions. And becasue the jury is still out on whether vaccinated people can continue to infect others, The gov seems to suggest they still can, so it seems essential to assume they can until evidence shows otherwise.

Consequently until the virus's routes of transmission are broken some restrictions will be inevitable. Unfortunately, I don't believe the virus can be completely eradicated now. Its had too long to establish new hosts (could well be in other animals) and it will I think persistently pop up in different localities from time to time as mutations produce new strains.

The new UK variant has dramatically changed the dynamic of this pandemic. It should be very clear from the way that the restriction tiers have failed to control its spread, so more draconian measures were essential. Whilst the headlines features of the virus and the measures may well understood, some of the details have not been so well publicised. You only have to watch the news to see how poorly informed some people are about helping to control it.

 

[Beachball]

Sorry to hear of these sad stories from Parksy ,Clive and John.
I may be luckier. I am due to see a knee Consultant at the BMI Bath on the 20 th January. Not bad considering my GP referred me on the 1st December. It seems the NHS are paying the private hospitals for orthopaedic work. The BMI near me has no appointments for at least a year. Hence Bath which is 30 minutes away. Seems to be a post code lottery. I hope you guys and your families get sorted soon. Maybe it’s worth looking further afield for treatment. Apart from Gabs has anyone else been offered the vaccine yet?

Hi Dusty
Glad to see you have good result, chinks of light at this time makes you feel like normal life is still continuing in some form amongst this difficult period. Hope it will have the result you are wishing for, good luck.

Yesterday my cousin in Leicestershire rang me and told me that her and her husband had both caught Covid. She Is recovering fine as is her husband. He was quite fortunate in that twelve months ago he was being treated for non Hodginsons Lymphoma. They have been ultra cautious throughout but they caught it from their son who developed symptoms the day after he had seen them. But she did admit that he had been in the house for about an hour and hugged his father as they wouldn’t be together for Christmas. On the other side of the family my wife’s nephew and family all have it. They live in Kent and the nephew and wife both work in the NHS with children in primary and secondary school. All are recovering well.

But over Christmas I was surprised not to have received a letter from an old friend in Karachi that together with that an Indian we all shared an office when at Naval College. After spending 37 years in the Pakistani Navy he was instrumental in establishing the Hunar Foundation 10 years ago. The foundation aims to train Pakistani men and women students in vocational skills to help lift them and their families out of poverty. My friend was still on the Hunar Foundation management team. But sadly I was notified this morning that he had died on Christmas Day of Covid. Having been friends since 1975 I really feel his passing even though we have only met three times since. Sad times.

Hi Clive
We are living in difficult times when for many are knowing people both in family and close friends who have been effected at this time. Those who have lost people they care about can only mourne them quietly as you are with the friend of many years. Your statement about contact with family and friends shows how important it is to stay isolated for their health and yours. We may miss the human contact of those we hold dear but must remember that to have a future we have to stay strong today. Wait our turn to have the vaccine and hopefully we can all return to our normal active lives with not too many more people being affected.

 

[otherclive]

Hi Dusty
Glad to see you have good result, chinks of light at this time makes you feel like normal life is still continuing in some form amongst this difficult period. Hope it will have the result you are wishing for, good luck.

Hi Clive
We are living in difficult times when for many are knowing people both in family and close friends who have been effected at this time. Those who have lost people they care about can only mourne them quietly as you are with the friend of many years. Your statement about contact with family and friends shows how important it is to stay isolated for their health and yours. We may miss the human contact of those we hold dear but must remember that to have a future we have to stay strong today. Wait our turn to have the vaccine and hopefully we can all return to our normal active lives with not too many more people being affected.

Beach ball
Thank you. Some good news arrived this morning. Our daughter is down for her vaccination at Salisbury Hospital on Saturday afternoon. That will be a weight off of our minds as the wards she works on will admit mentally ill patients with Covid if necessary. But they aren’t the regular medical wards.

 

[Jcloughie]

I believe the Gov's, reasoning is based on the data from the vaccine trials,

TV this morning said the idea came from Tony Blair. Hopefully though that is supported by the science.

John

 

[otherclive]

TV this morning said the idea came from Tony Blair. Hopefully though that is supported by the science.

John

Tony Blair was first reported to have suggested this on 23 December but where he got it from wasn’t stated. But I suppose looking at how trial results showed a build up of immunity after dose 1 and not a significantly bigger increase after dose 2 he just might have put 2+2 together along with others thinking along parallel lines. Just hope they’ve got their sums right and it’s not another WMD outcome.

 

[Dustydog]

Today the WHO have challenged the U.K. decision to extend the time gap between vaccination. Also a large number of UK GPS have raised similar concerns as indeed have Pfizer and Oxford AZ.
The Chinese have blocked a team of WHO doctors researchers entry to Wuhan last 24 hours.
our nearest vaccination centre is 10 miles away, Malmesbury.
Good news is Matt Hancock know has told the Civil Servants to extract their middle digit and get the 40k retired medical volunteers back on stream asap rather than frustrating them with bureaucratic obstacles.
Realistically I do not expect my first jab until April /May. You never know if the retirees come on board to help as indeed I hope the pharmacies then I believe we may have something to rejoice sooner than later.
from what I nave read the mutations of the C19 don’t make it more dangerous but just more easily transmissible. If that is true then we can every confidence the latest vaccines will still work.

 

[woodsieboy]

Ref RUH Bath
I was admitted in the November lockdown after having heart attack, even though I was unaware that I had,went in Tuesday morning had 3 stents fitted and discharged Wednesday lunchtime, tested for Covid twice while I was in, both negative, absolutely superb care, although I have a friend that works there and she has had Covid over Christmas,recovering well but wont be back to work for a while, says they are struggling because of staff illness.

 

[Dustydog]

Ref RUH Bath
I was admitted in the November lockdown after having heart attack, even though I was unaware that I had,went in Tuesday morning had 3 stents fitted and discharged Wednesday lunchtime, tested for Covid twice while I was in, both negative, absolutely superb care, although I have a friend that works there and she has had Covid over Christmas,recovering well but wont be back to work for a while, says they are struggling because of staff illness.

It’s always reassuring to hear good news stories. The NHS staff have performed brilliantly over the last 12 months always putting their own lives at risk. Glad to hear they fixed you so quickly.👏👏

 

[Gabsgrandad]

Visit to Scunthorpe hospital this a,m. for chest x ray, - parking - so easy! Hospital like a 'ghost town' inside (nearly expect 'tumbleweed' to be rolling about!) very few people about, - incredible times, but superb service. Thanks.

 

[Dustydog]

Hope it went well for you Pete.

 

[Beachball]

Visit to Scunthorpe hospital this a,m. for chest x ray, - parking - so easy! Hospital like a 'ghost town' inside (nearly expect 'tumbleweed' to be rolling about!) very few people about, - incredible times, but superb service. Thanks.

Hi Pete hoping you got the news that you are wishing for ...

 

[ProfJohnL]

... from what I nave read the mutations of the C19 don’t make it more dangerous but just more easily transmissible. If that is true then we can every confidence the latest vaccines will still work.

That may be the case for the variants seen so far, but that won't necessarily be the case for all mutations. For example the SA version is raising concerns as early reports suggest it may have some resistance to the current vaccines, and no one can predict all the possible variations that might come along.

A big concern is if one of the human varieties jumps to another species like a bird dog or cat, and retains its ability to attack humans, and the likelihood of this grows a time goes by. We should not be complacent.

 

[Dustydog]

Rest assured Prof I doubt anyone on here is complacent. In fact Change.org has set up a campaign challenging HMG extending the time between vaccinations.
All viruses change over time as we see with the annual changes to the flu vaccines. I think I’ll take my chances with the current vaccine and worry about mutations next year. Let’s hope we all have the opportunity to still be here next year!

 

[otherclive]

That may be the case for the variants seen so far, but that won't necessarily be the case for all mutations. For example the SA version is raising concerns as early reports suggest it may have some resistance to the current vaccines, and no one can predict all the possible variations that might come along.

A big concern is if one of the human varieties jumps to another species like a bird dog or cat, and retains its ability to attack humans, and the likelihood of this grows a time goes by. We should not be complacent.

Prof
There’s zilch-all that I can do about it jumping to my dogs other than shot them, and complacency isn’t really something relevant to whether or not the virus evolves to a different strain which is less or more severe. Thats what virus do, hence our annual flu jabs. Again you are preaching to the converted and being unnecessarily pessimistic. And having set up a business for safety and environmental risk assessment I thought I was a pessimist.

The link below explains the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation recommendation which may shed some light on the process. The report carries references to the effects of the vaccines in different trial settings. They are not accessible links but it was presumably these together with the U.K. scientific expertise that influenced the decision.

PS Tony Blair isn’t a member

https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...ne-priority-groups-advice-on-30-december-2020[/QUOTE]

 

[otherclive]

Visit to Scunthorpe hospital this a,m. for chest x ray, - parking - so easy! Hospital like a 'ghost town' inside (nearly expect 'tumbleweed' to be rolling about!) very few people about, - incredible times, but superb service. Thanks.

It’s a similar situation at the Bath hospital. Absolute delight for parking no longer need driver plus passenger to take our granddaughter to Orthodentics , and I’m sure the parking charges have been reduced. Plus appointments run to time.

 

[Parksy]

.......A big concern is if one of the human varieties jumps to another species like a bird dog or cat, and retains its ability to attack humans, and the likelihood of this grows a time goes by. We should not be complacent.

Whether we are complacent or not we can't prevent such a scenario, it's a bridge that we'll have to cross if or when we come to it.
In reply to one of your earlier comments Prof I expressed concern about the browbeating and lecturing of forum members with regard to C19.
I haven't seen any evidence of complacency via forum comments from individual members.
We are all aware of the dangers, we are perfectly capable of formulating plans to keep ourselves and others safe.
Please stop the virtual finger wagging.

 

[Dustydog]

As an aside and food for thought in September 1940 the Government issued / supplied 40 million gas masks and cases to the populace. No mean feat in those low tech days . Let’s hope we can do the same with the vaccinations 👏👏👏👏

 

[otherclive]

The advice for the Pfizer vaccine just received by our daughter is no alcohol two days before, and two weeks afterwards. That could really challenge Some people. Nothing about celibacy though 🙈🤭😷

 

[JezzerB]

Good grief-dont't think I can have it then-my system wouldn't stand 2 days off alcohol let alone 2 weeks!