Second Lockdown 😥😥😥😥😥😥😥

[ProfJohnL]

There is a scientific view that leaving some sections of the population unvaccinated gives the virus a transmission path albeit a reduced one. This allows infected people to develop resistance against the actual virus not a vaccine. It has been said this could be a benefit as cutting off all paths could lead to multiple mutations. But I guess the juries still out on such theories.

I personally do not think a plan such as that would be sensible.

It is generally accepted that as long as the Covid-19 virus is as transmissible and does cause such major symptoms, and we have no simple way to to treat them, breaking the transmission routes is the only practical way to go.

Lock downs are one tool, and the first one we had in March 2020 showed how they can keep a lid on the spread of C19. But the one we are in at the moment has been significantly less stringently adhered to and the result was clearly demonstrated by the spread of the Kent mutation which seemed to spread as if there were no lockdown I know it didn't help the lockdown was slow at being introduced, but even after its was, the virus continued to spread at an alarming and almost unhindered rate. I am sure there will be many studies carried out to discover why the 2nd lockdown was so much less effective - I'm sure there are lessons to be learned from it.

So if you can't physically stop the export of the virus from and infected people, you have to try and reduce the populations ability to become infected by the virus. This is where the vaccine process becomes so important.

Unfortunately there is no single transmission route for an established virus like C19 there are multiple paths. If the vaccine is only used for a few of those paths, it will simply bypass them through the unprotected paths. Its very much like what would happen to traffic flows when one route is blocked, we find a way round them. So if you want to stop the traffic completely, you have block ALL routes. In other words cause everybody to develop immunity.

Practically it makes sense to try and identify the most frequent transmission routes and those with the worst consequences, and prioritise them and flood them with effective vaccines, then apply vaccines progressively form worst case situations down to the least worst. It does seem the Gov't has tried to do this, but as with most of the journey of the is pandemic we have no prior plan to follow it has to be created largely as we go along, based on on going results and advice from professionals.

 

[Dustydog]

I personally do not think a plan such as that would be sensible.

It is generally accepted that as long as the Covid-19 virus is as transmissible and does cause such major symptoms, and we have no simple way to to treat them, breaking the transmission routes is the only practical way to go.

Lock downs are one tool, and the first one we had in March 2020 showed how they can keep a lid on the spread of C19. But the one we are in at the moment has been significantly less stringently adhered to and the result was clearly demonstrated by the spread of the Kent mutation which seemed to spread as if there were no lockdown I know it didn't help the lockdown was slow at being introduced, but even after its was, the virus continued to spread at an alarming and almost unhindered rate. I am sure there will be many studies carried out to discover why the 2nd lockdown was so much less effective - I'm sure there are lessons to be learned from it.

So if you can't physically stop the export of the virus from and infected people, you have to try and reduce the populations ability to become infected by the virus. This is where the vaccine process becomes so important.

Unfortunately there is no single transmission route for an established virus like C19 there are multiple paths. If the vaccine is only used for a few of those paths, it will simply bypass them through the unprotected paths. Its very much like what would happen to traffic flows when one route is blocked, we find a way round them. So if you want to stop the traffic completely, you have block ALL routes. In other words cause everybody to develop immunity.

Practically it makes sense to try and identify the most frequent transmission routes and those with the worst consequences, and prioritise them and flood them with effective vaccines, then apply vaccines progressively form worst case situations down to the least worst. It does seem the Gov't has tried to do this, but as with most of the journey of the is pandemic we have no prior plan to follow it has to be created largely as we go along, based on on going results and advice from professionals.

Prof,
The boffins are moving so fast everything we write on here is out of date. Sarah Knapton, Science Editor of the Daily Telegraph ha s written an excellent article in today’s DT page 9. I can’t quote it here but strongly recommend you buy the DT now and read it. What she says is truly encouraging . The range of current and new drugs in use or being rapidly developed is very reassuring.

 

[otherclive]

I personally do not think a plan such as that would be sensible.

It is generally accepted that as long as the Covid-19 virus is as transmissible and does cause such major symptoms, and we have no simple way to to treat them, breaking the transmission routes is the only practical way to go.

Lock downs are one tool, and the first one we had in March 2020 showed how they can keep a lid on the spread of C19. But the one we are in at the moment has been significantly less stringently adhered to and the result was clearly demonstrated by the spread of the Kent mutation which seemed to spread as if there were no lockdown I know it didn't help the lockdown was slow at being introduced, but even after its was, the virus continued to spread at an alarming and almost unhindered rate. I am sure there will be many studies carried out to discover why the 2nd lockdown was so much less effective - I'm sure there are lessons to be learned from it.

So if you can't physically stop the export of the virus from and infected people, you have to try and reduce the populations ability to become infected by the virus. This is where the vaccine process becomes so important.

Unfortunately there is no single transmission route for an established virus like C19 there are multiple paths. If the vaccine is only used for a few of those paths, it will simply bypass them through the unprotected paths. Its very much like what would happen to traffic flows when one route is blocked, we find a way round them. So if you want to stop the traffic completely, you have block ALL routes. In other words cause everybody to develop immunity.

Practically it makes sense to try and identify the most frequent transmission routes and those with the worst consequences, and prioritise them and flood them with effective vaccines, then apply vaccines progressively form worst case situations down to the least worst. It does seem the Gov't has tried to do this, but as with most of the journey of the is pandemic we have no prior plan to follow it has to be created largely as we go along, based on on going results and advice from professionals.

Understand your view but aren’t we approaching a position where those susceptible to major symptoms and mortality will be protected. Thus reducing the load on the NHS services. The major transmission route is predominantly from human to human contact via aerosol matter. The case recently occurring in Oz where opposite doors across a quarantine hotel passage being opened simultaneously for room service led to cross transmission from an affected family to an unaffected person. Or the security guard in another hotel sitting in a passageway viewed on cctv and doing nothing wrong. Checks indicated his infection came from infected people opening doors for room service.

A very recent report on transmission in a sporting environment showed virtually nothing from tennis balls or rackets, some from cricket balls but variable dependent on surface. little from gym equipment surfaces. But orders of magnitude higher from person to person contact. It’s not transmission routes as I know you have personal concerns over the virus on all matter of surfaces. It’s transmission hubs that need to be tackled. Another report focused on the fact that manufacturing, construction, and hospitality were far out weighed by household mixing, offices and secondary schools as sources of hub transmission. It’s this sort of data that HMG will have to use to plan their future actions, not emotive pressure from the media or interest groups.

 

[Dustydog]

Understand your view but aren’t we approaching a position where those susceptible to major symptoms and mortality will be protected. Thus reducing the load on the NHS services. The major transmission route is predominantly from human to human contact via aerosol matter. The case recently occurring in Oz where opposite doors across a quarantine hotel passage being opened simultaneously for room service led to cross transmission from an affected family to an unaffected person. Or the security guard in another hotel sitting in a passageway viewed on cctv and doing nothing wrong. Checks indicated his infection came from infected people opening doors for room service.

A very recent report on transmission in a sporting environment showed virtually nothing from tennis balls or rackets, some from cricket balls but variable dependent on surface. little from gym equipment surfaces. But orders of magnitude higher from person to person contact. It’s not transmission routes as I know you have personal concerns over the virus on all matter of surfaces. It’s transmission hubs that need to be tackled. Another report focused on the fact that manufacturing, construction, and hospitality were far out weighed by household mixing, offices and secondary schools as sources of hub transmission. It’s this sort of data that HMG will have to use to plan their future actions, not emotive pressure from the media or interest groups.

Dare I ask Clive? Are you advocating the possibility of reopening my Red Lion soon🍺🍺😁😁😁👏👏👏

 

[Hutch]

The Mail on line today, suggested that the pubs might reopen in April, for out doors eating and drinking. I hope so,

 

[Dustydog]

The Mail on line today, suggested that the pubs might reopen in April, for out doors eating and drinking. I hope so,

What? In the April showers😢😢

 

[otherclive]

Dare I ask Clive? Are you advocating the possibility of reopening my Red Lion soon🍺🍺😁😁😁👏👏👏

I would very much hope so, and our locals too. Although one divergence from Hutch’ s post below; the corollary was that pubs and restaurants would initially be unable to serve alcohol. Could it be that it might create a vaccine inspired side effect. Like we all revert to teenagers? Be like the film “ cocoon “.

 

[ProfJohnL]

I know you have personal concerns over the virus on all matter of surfaces.

My comment this time was not aimed at any specific transmission method, but encompassed all methods.

Thankfully we do seem to be reaching a point where the most vulnerable will have received a vaccine, and that is something to celebrate (Socially distanced of course), but that is still only part of the solution.

I understand that some officials have said we might struggle to get 75% of those eligible for a vaccine to have it. There is a lot more to do, and one of the biggest jobs will be to educate and convince those people to actually have it.

My belief is we'll need at least an 85% take up to be able to safely move towards the full removal of C19 restrictions in the UK.

It still doesn't mean we will have unrestricted foreign travel, becasue there will other countries that have not achieved an equivalent level of control as the UK, or other mutations will have evolved and our present vaccines may be less effective against them.

 

[RogerL]

My comment this time was not aimed at any specific transmission method, but encompassed all methods.

Thankfully we do seem to be reaching a point where the most vulnerable will have received a vaccine, and that is something to celebrate (Socially distanced of course), but that is still only part of the solution.

I understand that some officials have said we might struggle to get 75% of those eligible for a vaccine to have it. There is a lot more to do, and one of the biggest jobs will be to educate and convince those people to actually have it.

My belief is we'll need at least an 85% take up to be able to safely move towards the full removal of C19 restrictions in the UK.

It still doesn't mean we will have unrestricted foreign travel, becasue there will other countries that have not achieved an equivalent level of control as the UK, or other mutations will have evolved and our present vaccines may be less effective against them.

It seems that the scientists advising the government had/have a target of 75% take-up of the vaccine and have been delighted to see 90% achieved among the 4 main priority groups - which is excellent as the take up rate among BAME groups has been way lower, down around 30% among Afro-Caribbeans so the take-up rate among White races must have been almost 100%.

 

[Beachball]

Just had news will be having my Covid jab tomorrow, moving forward.

 

[Dustydog]

Just had news will be having my Covid jab tomorrow, moving forward.

Looks like we will both be jabbed tomorrow. Mine‘s at 09.27 on the dot!

 

[ProfJohnL]

That's great new Dusty and Beachball.

The Vaccination programme is moving forward and has achieved some impressive results, not only the uptake, but the incredibly small numbers of reported serious side effects.

I'm an not surprised the take up has been so high with the high risk groups, generally these first groups are predominantly older people, who seem to have a more risk averse approach, but as the vaccine is offered to younger age groups, there is evidence from the likes of Yougov polsters that a larger proportion of people have expressed their intention to refuse the vaccine.

This isn't just related to religious or ethnicity traits , but it seems to be more of a general distrust of Gov't or a miss guided belief that C19 is not as serious as has been made out.

As vaccination programme continues I think it will struggle to meet my own 85% target or even the 75% that has been suggested by others unless the miss information about the poor effectiveness and safety of the vaccine can be stopped.

 

[Dustydog]

Prof
As long as us guys and family have it then we can sleep at night. Those who for whatever reason decline must do so entirely at their own risk and expense. If their inaction means a continuance of lockdown and deterioration in our economy I wonder what HMG will do next 🤔🤔. I’m all for freedom , respect of views , but sadly C19 knows no boundaries. The £64 million dollar question will be , why should the rest of us suffer because of others intransigence 😥😥😥See BBC1 this evening at 7.35pm on the anti vaxxer brigade.

 

[Beachball]

Looks like we will both be jabbed tomorrow. Mine‘s at 09.27 on the dot!

Hi Dusty Good Luck Mine at 16.25

 

[Beehpee]

People who refuse vaccination because they think COVID is a government conspiracy, or that it’s not as harmful as we are being led to believe should prove it by doing voluntary work on hospital COVID wards, I wonder how many of them would then refuse the vaccine

BP

 

[Beachball]

Prof
As long as us guys and family have it then we can sleep at night. Those who for whatever reason decline must do so entirely at their own risk and expense. If their inaction means a continuance of lockdown and deterioration in our economy I wonder what HMG will do next 🤔🤔. I’m all for freedom , respect of views , but sadly C19 knows no boundaries. The £64 million dollar question will be , why should the rest of us suffer because of others intransigence 😥😥😥See BBC1 this evening at 7.35pm on the anti vaxxer brigade.

I am in agreement with you just hope everyone and family gets there jabs then we all can move forward .

 

[otherclive]

My cousin ( mid 60s) hasn’t had a vaccination since he was given the polio vaccine as a kid. Yet he’s been to Africa over 20 times. Yet he’s had his Covid one. Reading the bbc news it’s interesting the reports of vaccination figures for the University of Leicester hospitals. Only 70% of white staff eligible have accepted it. A lower figure for Asian and lower still for Black. The community leaders and public health staff are working hard to increase the uptake. But on our local news a couple were interviewed who were reluctant to have the vaccine after watching a YouTube video where seemingly professional medical commentators advised against it. After talking to public health and GP they realised the video was untrue. They have now been vaccinated.. We should not underestimate the power of false information and the efforts required to counter it.

There are also concerns re care staff uptake for similar reasons.

 

[Damian]

Having had the vaccination last week and no side effects to speak of, I have been feeling quite reassured that at least I have some protection.
However, one side effect of going to the main Hub in Newport came to hit me this weekend when a letter arrived with a demand for £100 for parking !!!!!!

When my temper calmed down a bit I appealed the ticket and today I phoned the centre manager and explained the situation and was told that I should have entered my car number on an IPad in reception.
The only problem with that was the fact that the actual centre was locked and only the vaccination area open, and no IPad was accessable to enter the number.

Later today the manager did phone me back and said that they had received about a hundred calls relating to the situation and that they had contacted the company who issued the demands and have cancelled all the tickets sent out.

Now I will go and lay in a dark room .............................

 

[ProfJohnL]

Prof
As long as us guys and family have it then we can sleep at night. Those who for whatever reason decline must do so entirely at their own risk and expense. If their inaction means a continuance of lockdown and deterioration in our economy I wonder what HMG will do next 🤔🤔. I’m all for freedom , respect of views , but sadly C19 knows no boundaries. The £64 million dollar question will be , why should the rest of us suffer because of others intransigence 😥😥😥See BBC1 this evening at 7.35pm on the anti vaxxer brigade.

Yes I watched the programme, and I was pleased to see how the subjects converted to having the vaccine after they had conversed with reliable professionals. The authorities need to make sure that all anti vaxxer's do sit down and discuss their concerns with professionals to counter the miss information.

I have seen enough information to convince me of the safety and efficacy of the vaccines, and as I have expressed at various points on this forum the circumstances that have combined to make the vaccine process one of the most important interventions to help us get through the pandemic. But it does rely on a very high take up of the vaccine.

The danger of leaving holes in the vaccination coverage stems from the fact that the viruses do mutate.

Viruses multiply by combining with our cells, and growing offspring, and just like our children they carry some characteristics of the Virus and some of the host cells so infection will produce a slightly different virus cells to be passed on. Most of these changes are small and insignificant, but occasionally a more important part of the virus gets changed, and that is when a new strain might become more infections. We simply do not have the capability of knowing when this might happen, so they will continue to crop up.

It only needs one person to get infected, and to mutate the virus so it is less sensitive to our vaccine, and the whole rigmarole could start again. The longer it takes plug ALL the vaccination holes the greater the chance of a new more virulent strain to emerging.

Unfortunately there will be some people who for very good medical reasons who may not be vaccinated, so for that reason I suspect the C19 virus or its offspring will be with us for a very long time, and its highly likely we will need to regularly revise the vaccines to keep them as current as possible. This will be very much like the annual flu jab which changes it form quite regularly .

Dustydog kindly sent me a copy of the Daily Telegraph, which contained an article that reinforced the point that in addition to vaccines, the medical establishment is trying hard to find ways or relieving the symptoms that C19 produces. This won't necessarily prevent infections, but it may reduce the severity of symptoms, and prevent more victims from needing hospitalisation. Another benefit of some of this research may produce better detection and management of other serious heath conditions.

 

[otherclive]

Yes I watched the programme, and I was pleased to see how the subjects converted to having the vaccine after they had conversed with reliable professionals. The authorities need to make sure that all anti vaxxer's do sit down and discuss their concerns with professionals to counter the miss information.

I have seen enough information to convince me of the safety and efficacy of the vaccines, and as I have expressed at various points on this forum the circumstances that have combined to make the vaccine process one of the most important interventions to help us get through the pandemic. But it does rely on a very high take up of the vaccine.

The danger of leaving holes in the vaccination coverage stems from the fact that the viruses do mutate.

Viruses multiply by combining with our cells, and growing offspring, and just like our children they carry some characteristics of the Virus and some of the host cells so infection will produce a slightly different virus cells to be passed on. Most of these changes are small and insignificant, but occasionally a more important part of the virus gets changed, and that is when a new strain might become more infections. We simply do not have the capability of knowing when this might happen, so they will continue to crop up.

It only needs one person to get infected, and to mutate the virus so it is less sensitive to our vaccine, and the whole rigmarole could start again. The longer it takes plug ALL the vaccination holes the greater the chance of a new more virulent strain to emerging.

Unfortunately there will be some people who for very good medical reasons who may not be vaccinated, so for that reason I suspect the C19 virus or its offspring will be with us for a very long time, and its highly likely we will need to regularly revise the vaccines to keep them as current as possible. This will be very much like the annual flu jab which changes it form quite regularly .

Dustydog kindly sent me a copy of the Daily Telegraph, which contained an article that reinforced the point that in addition to vaccines, the medical establishment is trying hard to find ways or relieving the symptoms that C19 produces. This won't necessarily prevent infections, but it may reduce the severity of symptoms, and prevent more victims from needing hospitalisation. Another benefit of some of this research may produce better detection and management of other serious heath conditions.

Prof
worth reading the Sunday Times article from Chief Scientific Officer Pfizer and Prof Gilbert Oxford. Their experience leads them to believe that two doses plus a further booster really does give good immunity for much longer periods and would feasibly withstand attack from several virus strains too. Could even give life time immunity to the younger members of society.

 

[Hutch]

Myself and my family are worried about the Covid 19, problem, I have friends and ex work colleagues, in Nigeria, that have a different strain of Covid 19.
Thankfully, only 5 friends , out of a team of about 250 working people, about 150 being Nigerian locals, have contracted it and all have come through ok with relativley light problem, more like a very heavy Flu.

But the New batch of Enbola in the Congo is very frightening for the African continent, lets hope the WHO involves itself with this as much a concern as the Covid 19.

 

[otherclive]

Myself and my family are worried about the Covid 19, problem, I have friends and ex work colleagues, in Nigeria, that have a different strain of Covid 19.
Thankfully, only 5 friends , out of a team of about 250 working people, about 150 being Nigerian locals, have contracted it and all have come through ok with relativley light problem, more like a very heavy Flu.

But the New batch of Enbola in the Congo is very frightening for the African continent, lets hope the WHO involves itself with this as much a concern as the Covid 19.

Since Wuhan over 1000 different variants of coronavirus have been identified. But fortunately only a few have given any cause for concern. I agree with you regarding the Ebola outbreak, fortunately the local health systems now have far better experience in coping with it. However the parallel problems with coronavirus won’t make it easy. Rather than crashing down and vaccinating every age group in their country perhaps the wealthier nations would be better ensuring that coronavirus vaccine was provided to front line health staff in the poorer countries.

 

[Buckman]

Having had the vaccination last week and no side effects to speak of, I have been feeling quite reassured that at least I have some protection.
However, one side effect of going to the main Hub in Newport came to hit me this weekend when a letter arrived with a demand for £100 for parking !!!!!!

When my temper calmed down a bit I appealed the ticket and today I phoned the centre manager and explained the situation and was told that I should have entered my car number on an IPad in reception.
The only problem with that was the fact that the actual centre was locked and only the vaccination area open, and no IPad was accessable to enter the number.

Later today the manager did phone me back and said that they had received about a hundred calls relating to the situation and that they had contacted the company who issued the demands and have cancelled all the tickets sent out.

Now I will go and lay in a dark room .............................

As a matter of intyerest was it a Penalty Charge Notice or a Parking Charge Notice? The latter obviously issued by some cowboy outfit. Good that they saw sense to cancel.

 

[Dustydog]

Jabbed👍👍👍👍

 

[Jcloughie]

As a matter of intyerest was it a Penalty Charge Notice or a Parking Charge Notice? The latter obviously issued by some cowboy outfit. Good that they saw sense to cancel.

I got done for £80 last year, 100% my fault but that did not make me feel any better. Went into B&Q, emptyish car park. Stopped in the blue badge section but forgot to display. I tried to appeal to no avail. Seems the car park is managed on behalf of the landlords. The companies were not cowboys and handled things proffesionally.

I could have gone in one of the few hundred other places without a problem.

☹ Still hurts. But I learnt a lesson.

John