Second Lockdown 😥😥😥😥😥😥😥

[ProfJohnL]

Having no read the article Dusty pointed to, it only says the
"Figures from the Office for National Statistics suggest that England’s COVID-19 outbreak slowed down last week..."
"SAGE revealed the R rate in the UK has remained between 1.1 and 1.3. ..."
"Oxford scientists, economists and politicians have criticised the decision... "
A sub page explains a little further and shows how the quoted figures predicted up to 4K deaths per week, but the most recently released figures suggest a lower figure of deaths is now more likeky.

For my money the most important snippet is the R rate which is still above 1.1 in all senario's. One has to remember this figure is an average for the country, so there must be areas where its exceeds the average by some margin and in some areas is less. But crucially if R is above 1 it means the rate of infections is accelerating, and eventually the numbers of cases would exceed the NHS's capability to provide C19 care. Its a question of "when" not "if".

We have to aim for an R value of less than 1 only at that point do numbers decelerate.

We can debate almost indefinitely if a nationwide lockdown is necessary, but its not our decision and the reality is we have one, and we have to work our way through it. I have no doubt that presently our only chance of getting the R value down is to minimise all contact.

I am genuinely sorry that businesses are finding things tough, and perhaps the Chancellor should have put financial organisations into s tighter straight jacket to be lenient on business about rates, insurance, and other overheads. But I personally get quite angry at the numbers of business sectors who are calling for the Govt to relax the rules for them, as though they have no responsibility for helping to reduce infections. The hospitality sector in particular, where it was predictable that if they open most customers would forget or deliberately ignore social distancing. Even if the public house does control things well inside, they are encouraging mixing by drawing customer in.

All sectors should be putting the heath & safety of our nation first.

 

[Dustydog]

Prof , we both know there are arguments with demonstrable evidence to paint whatever picture people like. Most Inns are as secure as my doctors surgery. No jest . For real.
My very simple dog take, is do you want to be in the room when the fan turns on🙈I’m staying safe👍👍

 

[ProfJohnL]

Prof , we both know there are arguments with demonstrable evidence to paint whatever picture people like. Most Inns are as secure as my doctors surgery. No jest . For real.
My very simple dog take, is do you want to be in the room when the fan turns on🙈I’m staying safe👍👍

I think I agree, the inns themselves are doing what they can, but they can't control the idiots when they step outside.

 

[JezzerB]

Sadly I don't think this lock down will do anything other than kick the can down the road as one scientist put it. Breathing space for the NHS maybe the only goal tbh. We will unlock on the 2nd and they'll all be out drinking going mad and ignoring distancing and come January we're back to square one.Let's hope the vaccine works.

 

[Beehpee]

I’m happy to go along with this latest lockdown completely if it is going to save lives which I believe it will, I generally don’t get into discussions on COVID because my take on it is this virus is killing people in countries worldwide, economies are taking an absolute battering worldwide, scientists? experts? politicians worldwide & the populations of every country worldwide have all got the answers to everything that needs to be done to get through it unscathed, if there was a simple answer to this pandemic I would have thought a country or two by now would have stumbled on the solution and would be living as though COVID didn’t exist, Boris and our politician have made mistakes without any doubt, which government hasn’t, the opposition politicians criticise none stop about the government, have they got the answers? Not a chance, the same can be said worldwide, it’s not the lockdowns and the deaths, hospitals being over run etc etc its the armchair politicians, experts who have the answer to everything I get sick of, I’m not saying things shouldn’t be discussed on here or anywhere else but people should at the least acknowledge whichever politician or graph that a scientific advisor uses it’s not going to make a great deal of difference,
rant over!!!

 

[JezzerB]

Yes sort of agreeing with you, it'll save the NHS from being run but do think it'll be till next time. Likewise no politician in fact no one would be able to sort this and they still seem unsure of how it spreads so easily etc though I suppose you could predict certain elements of Joe public not all being helpful although I have been surprised at some of the age groups I have seen.
misbehaving.keep safe.

 

[Raywood]

I am not convinced the current rules are the answer but just letting the virus run wild is not it either. Probably we need to clamp down ruthlessly on those who are involved in serious breaches instead of pussy footing around.

 

[ProfJohnL]

I am really pleased to read of some of the cases where people are being slapped with £10K fines.

If by any chance a failure to socially distance or breach of the rules can be shown to have led to a death, perhaps a charge of manslaughter or even murder might bring a few more people to their senses.

 

[Buckman]

I am really pleased to read of some of the cases where people are being slapped with £10K fines.

If by any chance a failure to socially distance or breach of the rules can be shown to have led to a death, perhaps a charge of manslaughter or even murder might bring a few more people to their senses.

However what happens of they do not pay? Will they go to court and if they still do not pay, they go to jail? Probably do a post on FB begging for money and walk away free with loads of cash in their pocket! TBH it shoudl be Go to Jail straihgt away for minimum period of 3 months and no option of a fine!

BTW hypothertical question as none of us know what would happen in the event of non payment, but we can guess.

 

[ProfJohnL]

However what happens of they do not pay? Will they go to court and if they still do not pay, they go to jail? Probably do a post on FB begging for money and walk away free with loads of cash in their pocket! TBH it shoudl be Go to Jail straihgt away for minimum period of 3 months and no option of a fine!

BTW hypothertical question as none of us know what would happen in the event of non payment, but we can guess.

Don't forget these £10K fines have been awarded by a criminal court. It is not a civil action. If they do not pay they will subject to the same treatment as any other unpaid criminal fine.

 

[Buckman]

Don't forget these £10K fines have been awarded by a criminal court. It is not a civil action. If they do not pay they will subject to the same treatment as any other unpaid criminal fine.

Apparently for this type of offence like non payment of TV licence they do crowd funding on FB to collect the boodle to get out.
In some cases I have read about the courts give them several years to pay off the fine or reduce the fine.
Sadly our jails are so full that they can hardly cope at the moment with many minor crimes like theft, houesebreaking etc.
Although I did mention a mandatory jail sentence without the option of a fine, maybe community service in a local hospital may be a better option for these morons who think they are above the law?

 

[Beachball]

We are suppose to be in a second lockdown and some are doing what they want to do even now so at present i cannot see any difference. . I also think they are ignoring distancing now in shops chemists, supermarket , ,suppose be 2metre rule but you get someone breathing down your neck .
Like someone said on here they need to clamp down on them and give them fines .that the only way they might learn .

 

[Buckman]

Yesterday we had to drive through Worcester for a legitimate reason and there seemed to be no difference in the volume of traffic unlike the first lockdown when the roads were nearly empty.

 

[Beachball]

That the same where we live plenty of traffic on the roads no difference to the first lockdown in fact people are stocking up for christmas toys and food.

 

[Beehpee]

I was out working yesterday and roads a bit quieter but still some traffic, people are still allowed to go to work and take kids to school, lots of shops open selling essential stuff so plenty of reason for people to be legally out and about i guess.

 

[Dustydog]

In a moment of boredom I’ve read about The Black Death. Bubonic Plague. Whilst a bacterior , not a virus, the end result was the same . Very high death rates.
The rats became infected, not known how or from where, their fleas caught it and then bit man. Then the clean fleas bit a man with Plague and then a rat and so cycle continued. It seems the plague bacteria did mutate.
This mirrors the Prof’s mutation thoughts. IMO as mutations continue we will see more and more lockdowns, job losses and a crippled economy.
So why is it all these clever clog people can‘t take this current lockdown as seriously as the first?
I too have noticed no reduction in cars on the road. Tomorrow thousands will probably gather for Remembrance Sunday . Students still want the legal right to publicly protest and so on.
And here’s the problem. Keeping vaccine types up to speed with mutations is a very difficult if not impossible task.
Rant over 🤪🤪

 

[ProfJohnL]

Apparently for this type of offence like non payment of TV licence they do crowd funding on FB to collect the boodle to get out.
In some cases I have read about the courts give them several years to pay off the fine or reduce the fine.

Who in their right mind would want to support the criminal in this instance?

 

[Beachball]

I received this today email scam Tv licence they keep saying you haven"t paid your bill .
i have forward this suspicious email to report@phishing.gov.uk they will investigate I hope they can stop these Scammers

 

[otherclive]

I received this today email scam Tv licence they keep saying you haven"t paid your bill .
i have forward this suspicious email to report@phishing.gov.uk they will investigate I hope they can stop these Scammers

Yes it’s a fact of life these days. I’m now even getting junk mail in French! Better update my Dualingo app as looking at them it’s all double Dutch to me 😂

 

[Dustydog]

Prof and others on here need to read today’s Daily Telegraph page 16. Head line says”
”Mink mutation is virologists’ worst nightmare”
It’s worse than the reservations both I and the Prof have stated.😢😢😢

 

[ProfJohnL]

Prof and others on here need to read today’s Daily Telegraph page 16. Head line says”
”Mink mutation is virologists’ worst nightmare”
It’s worse than the reservations both I and the Prof have stated.😢😢😢

I have tried to look on the Telegraph web site, but I have either been too late or the stories are different on line to inside the broadsheet. There are several stories circulating about the Danish developments, There are apparently several different mutations that have been identified. One in particular has infected 12 Danes and they are showing anti body responses that suggest the mutation does adversely affect affect the human response to C19 or its close relatives.

Its too early to predict how the other mutations might affect humans as the studies have not yet been carried out.

Apparently several other countries have also discovered the SARS-CoV-2, base virus in mink, which is genetically linked to Covid -19 in humans.

I am very concerned, Wikipedia report that Mink are part of the "Mustelidae from Latin mustela (weasel), are a family of carnivorous mammals, including weasels, badgers, otters, ferrets, martens, and minks, among others. Mustelids are a diverse group and form the largest family in the order Carnivora, comprises about 56–60 species across eight subfamilies. "(Wikipedia),

It highly likely that all other species in the family would be capable of hosting the SARS-CoV-2 base virus and thus must also be capable of hosting mutations of teh Covid-19 strain.

How many other species could also carry and thus infect up and down their respective food chains and locations.

Use your imagination as to how virus might spread to humans through contact with other animals.

Human lock down may reduce the number of human infections and give the NHS time to cope, but its not going to stop the virus.

 

[Buckman]

I too have noticed no reduction in cars on the road. Tomorrow thousands will probably gather for Remembrance Sunday .

That is incorrect as many Rememberance services have bene cancelled. Our regiment is doing an Online Virtual Remembrance Parade to remember our fallen.

 

[otherclive]

That is incorrect as many Rememberance services have bene cancelled. Our regiment is doing an Online Virtual Remembrance Parade to remember our fallen.

There will be no Remembrance services in our area and I think that will be the norm across the country. The service at the Cenotaph is much reduced with no spectators. It was so different watching last nights Service at the Royal Albert Hall which had been recorded in the summer.

 

[Dustydog]

There are two here. One official but drummed down and sorry to say an unofficial one too! Not for me but yes agree they shouldn’t be taking place.

 

[Buckman]

There will be no Remembrance services in our area and I think that will be the norm across the country. The service at the Cenotaph is much reduced with no spectators. It was so different watching last nights Service at the Royal Albert Hall which had been recorded in the summer.

Our regiment will be attempting to do a virtual Rememberance Service to remember our fallen.