The situation has got so out of control that the National Sausage Festival has had to be cancelled That’s offal news, and the way things are going it could be wurst by Christmas.
As I predicted we are now in a second wave, but I hoped the lessons learned from the first wave and the protection measures would have reduced the rate of acceleration of infections, unfortunately that appears not to be the case.
However As Dusty did point out the way the Gov't is testing and recording infection rates is different, so its not really a comparable figure. Consequently it suggests the actual infection rate in the first wave was probable higher than the figures of the time suggested.
C19 could be eradicated if a real full lock down were everybody fully isolated was introduced, becasue the opportunities for the virus to infect new victims would be interrupted, and provided the lockdown were greater than the virus's infection life cycle, it would naturally die out.
Because such a full lock down is a practical impossibility, with such a large population the probability of a continuing infection routes throughout the "lockdown" is an almost certainty. What it would do is to set back the infection rate to a lower value, only to start to rise again when the lock down is withdrawn.
We also don't know if the original source of the infection was literally just a one off mutation, or whether there was a population of animals carrying the mutated virus. If it was a population, then there is a chance of continual reinfections arising.
It is also concerning that there are few reports of reinfections arising in the Lancet
It is not entirely clear if these cases are due to other immune deficiencies or whether the second infection due to a further small mutation of the virus being responsible.
Having immunity does not prevent you from carrying it and passing it on. You can carry the virus before you show symptoms, so there are some real risks to others, even if you personally feel fine.
I predict this cycle will continue until there're insufficient numbers of victims to sustain the virus's life cycle, or we have an effective vaccine
C19 will continue to be a serious threat unless we can
find an effective vaccine (likely).
The virus naturally mutates to a less infectious form (less likely),
Develop care strategies than control the serious effects of C19(possible).
However As Dusty did point out the way the Gov't is testing and recording infection rates is different, so its not really a comparable figure. Consequently it suggests the actual infection rate in the first wave was probable higher than the figures of the time suggested.
C19 could be eradicated if a real full lock down were everybody fully isolated was introduced, becasue the opportunities for the virus to infect new victims would be interrupted, and provided the lockdown were greater than the virus's infection life cycle, it would naturally die out.
Because such a full lock down is a practical impossibility, with such a large population the probability of a continuing infection routes throughout the "lockdown" is an almost certainty. What it would do is to set back the infection rate to a lower value, only to start to rise again when the lock down is withdrawn.
We also don't know if the original source of the infection was literally just a one off mutation, or whether there was a population of animals carrying the mutated virus. If it was a population, then there is a chance of continual reinfections arising.
It is also concerning that there are few reports of reinfections arising in the Lancet
It is not entirely clear if these cases are due to other immune deficiencies or whether the second infection due to a further small mutation of the virus being responsible.
Having immunity does not prevent you from carrying it and passing it on. You can carry the virus before you show symptoms, so there are some real risks to others, even if you personally feel fine.
I predict this cycle will continue until there're insufficient numbers of victims to sustain the virus's life cycle, or we have an effective vaccine
C19 will continue to be a serious threat unless we can
find an effective vaccine (likely).
The virus naturally mutates to a less infectious form (less likely),
Develop care strategies than control the serious effects of C19(possible).
Who knows, certainly not me. But there is a school of thought that disagrees with those predictions, in fact reverses. They (some experts), are saying that a vacine will not come. Which is just like the common cold. But we will get better at dealing with it with care and prevention. And in that way we will have to live with it.
John
The so called second wave has reared it’s head but only in certain social areas. The major cosmopolitan Cities and areas have always been rife. The three Tier system had an attraction. Taking Scotland as a working example all the graphs and maps show the areas above R1 are Glasgow and Edinburgh. Inverness and Aberdeen plus the Highlands are clear relatively. More sledge hammers to crack a nut. Why penalise the clean areas?
But then we cannot be non PC😥😥 so we all have to suffer.
But then we cannot be non PC😥😥 so we all have to suffer.
Here in the SW the rate was low but rising at a rate that would potentially have started to swamp the hospitals. The hospital capacity in the SW isn’t as high per head as in some of the more metropolitan areas, and in some areas the regional hospital can be a long haul from where people are living. What I find surprising is the relatively low rate in London. I really would have thought it would rip away there.
Wiltshire had gone from 40 app cases ten days ago to 89 per 100000. Reason I am aware is that prior to leaving for Norfolk I was at pains to explain to our daughter that with Norfolk West and North being lower than Wiltshire going for a weeks break could be considered as a risk reduction exercise 😂
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That is true Clive , particularly in Bristol area and Exeter. Two major Cities. Our own local hospitals are of course miniscule compared to the Cities and thus the bed availability proportionately far less numerically.
Let‘s hope the idiots who have consistently failed to respect the importance of lockdown are brought to task.
Let‘s hope the idiots who have consistently failed to respect the importance of lockdown are brought to task.
I don't know what planet they think their on, but I hope they are all fined £10k. That will put a smile on the chancellor's finances.
I can't help believing the message about how serious C19 can be has not been pushed enough. Whilst for a significant proportion (may even be the majority) of the population the initial effects of the virus may be like a bad dose of flu, but its longer term effects that are also very worrying.
Obviously the headlines are about people with severe respiratory difficulties, but there area number of post viral medical conditions which seem to increasing and are being attributed to C19 exposure. The most striking are strokes, which have also occurred for some who may have only had mild symptoms of C19.
There is still a lot to learn about this virus, and given the nature of societies all around the world its going to be a protracted affair, with I think some new surprises around the corner. We have had news that it has already mutated in Spain, and there will be other strains being detected from differnt parts of the world as it spreads and encounters new hosts . We can only hope the vaccines in development are effective, and have a broad enough spectrum to have efficacy against mutated strains.
Devils advocate here, may be not my opinion but a different point of view.
Post is not to enrage or to inflame but to point out with all these other posts there's a difference of opinion or view to yours or the governments. In fact, even Nigel Farage has stepped in to curb the governments ignorance and controls and i hope he does change the situation for the better. Anything is better than what's happening right now as it does not work.
If we are complaining that the first shut down was not enough and stronger measures needed to solve the situation, say like Spain's strict set up or Frances system, but then again if their super strict why are the not covid free, does locking down really make a difference ??
Nightingale hospitals, sound wonderfull dont they? Shame there is no spare doctors or nurses to actually work them. I have worked at one recently as a builder doing works there. In the 100 odd people we met and dealt with, none were doctors or trained nurses. Most were employed via an agency to get the role and none had any formal medical training other than what was taught them at the nightingale. Want to trust your life to an agency no nothing?
I know of another nightingale hospital that cant be opened as they have no staff available to run it.
In these times, it would seem to me the government needs every tax penny they can collect. So why not allow ( with strict controls) shops and businesses to open and to trade. You are going to get more taxes from small shops than the whole of amazon. Who is about to utterly rape the uk economy and tax system right now.
The thing is those monster amazon sheds with thousands of people in there should be shut down as they are selling, non critical stuff, junk and not needed tat. Lets see a shut down where you cant online shop for tat and get it delivered from Amazon. Lets see what happens then when Boris gets squeezed by the real people in charge of the economy.
A small hairdressers with strict controls for hygiene and appointments is far less a risk with 10 or 20 contacts per day with masks and gels. Yet the staff at a supermarket that can contact 300 people in an hour dont wear masks and NEVER HAVE DONE. So the people with the lowest risk are punished, the firms helping to spread the virus with their shops and staff are allowed to open and even more so because of the panic shopping.
Why is there not the social norm or people pointing at and complaining at and singling out and correcting the idiots wearing their masks wrongly or not at all. It should be normal to be barred access to shops with out a mask. People should be shamed for not wearing it correctly. People should walk round shops with sticks prodding people, " put ya mask on correctly"
Shut down till December the Boris says, just in time for 6 billion people to all crowd the shops to go Christmas shopping and surge the spread again for the new year, very clever that idea.
For the shut down to work people have to believe the government and the top people and the actions and words they say or publish. Well sorry theres no faith what so ever that the government is doing the right thing , far from it in fact. So if the first close down did not work, the restrictions did not work and the treatment and actions of the NHS did not work,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, why are we doing it all again? Blind ignorance is not a treatment plan its a suicide note.
love to all and remember its a view that is not here to cause a shouting match, just to cause discussion and a balanced disscussion
Post is not to enrage or to inflame but to point out with all these other posts there's a difference of opinion or view to yours or the governments. In fact, even Nigel Farage has stepped in to curb the governments ignorance and controls and i hope he does change the situation for the better. Anything is better than what's happening right now as it does not work.
If we are complaining that the first shut down was not enough and stronger measures needed to solve the situation, say like Spain's strict set up or Frances system, but then again if their super strict why are the not covid free, does locking down really make a difference ??
Nightingale hospitals, sound wonderfull dont they? Shame there is no spare doctors or nurses to actually work them. I have worked at one recently as a builder doing works there. In the 100 odd people we met and dealt with, none were doctors or trained nurses. Most were employed via an agency to get the role and none had any formal medical training other than what was taught them at the nightingale. Want to trust your life to an agency no nothing?
I know of another nightingale hospital that cant be opened as they have no staff available to run it.
In these times, it would seem to me the government needs every tax penny they can collect. So why not allow ( with strict controls) shops and businesses to open and to trade. You are going to get more taxes from small shops than the whole of amazon. Who is about to utterly rape the uk economy and tax system right now.
The thing is those monster amazon sheds with thousands of people in there should be shut down as they are selling, non critical stuff, junk and not needed tat. Lets see a shut down where you cant online shop for tat and get it delivered from Amazon. Lets see what happens then when Boris gets squeezed by the real people in charge of the economy.
A small hairdressers with strict controls for hygiene and appointments is far less a risk with 10 or 20 contacts per day with masks and gels. Yet the staff at a supermarket that can contact 300 people in an hour dont wear masks and NEVER HAVE DONE. So the people with the lowest risk are punished, the firms helping to spread the virus with their shops and staff are allowed to open and even more so because of the panic shopping.
Why is there not the social norm or people pointing at and complaining at and singling out and correcting the idiots wearing their masks wrongly or not at all. It should be normal to be barred access to shops with out a mask. People should be shamed for not wearing it correctly. People should walk round shops with sticks prodding people, " put ya mask on correctly"
Shut down till December the Boris says, just in time for 6 billion people to all crowd the shops to go Christmas shopping and surge the spread again for the new year, very clever that idea.
For the shut down to work people have to believe the government and the top people and the actions and words they say or publish. Well sorry theres no faith what so ever that the government is doing the right thing , far from it in fact. So if the first close down did not work, the restrictions did not work and the treatment and actions of the NHS did not work,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, why are we doing it all again? Blind ignorance is not a treatment plan its a suicide note.
love to all and remember its a view that is not here to cause a shouting match, just to cause discussion and a balanced disscussion
Sorry but i am also in and out of a hospital at the moment and see far more failures from the NHS staff than from the few public members that go through the doors.
I find your comments ref” the treatment and actions of the NHS .....”. quite objectionable. This is a new virus for which there is no treatment cure. Any care given by the NHS is solely to try and support the patients own body in fighting the virus and hopefully making a recovery. Seeing the latest news pictures of NHS teams in ICU helping patients to fight this disease I find quite heart rending and have sympathy for them in what seems to be a continuous battle with significant risks to themselves.
I am sorry but where I go the staff are top notch and comply with all the rules and regulations.
Reading your long post it seems that money is more important than peoples lives. As I said in an earlierpost in many cases it is not the fault of the hospitality trade or retailers who have taken great pains at high cost to comply with the regulations, it is the low life morons in the street who only care about themselves and go to parties, raves and refuse to wear a mask even when standing in a queue!
I can say without hesitation and first hand knowledge the NHS here has been exemplary, Our GP surgery works flat out . Do you have any idea how difficult it is for a Doctor to telephone diagnose someone? This additional triaging probably adds 30%to the GPS onerous work load. Lest we forget the NHS are normal family human beings putting their own lives and families at risk to help us. My NHS hero flag flies again from tomorrow.
Parksy
Moderator
This is a caravan forum.
General discussion about the current health crisis is ok, but this forum isn't the place to make unsubstantiated claims about perceived 'failures' of NHS staff who risk their lives every time that they go to work to help the rest of us.
To publicly denigrate NHS staff in such a way is quite frankly insulting and uncalled for.
If I'd have seen the quoted comment before other forum members had replied I'd have taken it down from the message board.
My feeling is that with the problem being severe and the vaccine trials looking reasonably good the better option is to take the risk and get a vaccination programme going. If it works we will get out of the current mess that much quicker and if not we have wasted a few million more but that would be dwarfed by the total sums lost. There are some risks as to whether there are some after effects, but we do not have time to wait s this could take years to find out.
I'm not clear by what you mean by taking the "risk" Do you mean not enacting a second lock-down? or something else?
As we don't yet have a validated vaccine, we don't have a medical solution, and yet the rate of infection is rising and the current projections do look as though they will overwhelm the NHS.
We do know from the first lockdown how effective they are at reducing infection rates, so it is an established method to put the brakes on C19's advancement -enough to give the critical care sector a fighting chance of coping.
Having a lockdown doesn't prevent vaccine trials, in fact it might make some trials more meaningful as it reduces exposure to other pathogens that might compromise trial data.
i have been for my appointment today at the doctor our GP Surgery has also been working flat out since this Covid started .
My wife came out of retirement to help out with this virus and also not once complaint about the hours she putting in . .
The big thing she worries about me catching some thing because I am in the vulnerable group .
I hope this vaccination programme works then it gets us out of this, what we are in .
Take Care Keep Safe Everyone
My wife came out of retirement to help out with this virus and also not once complaint about the hours she putting in . .
The big thing she worries about me catching some thing because I am in the vulnerable group .
I hope this vaccination programme works then it gets us out of this, what we are in .
Take Care Keep Safe Everyone
As yet there is no vaccination programme. Only trials, and until the trials are completed with a successful outcome, we have no vaccine, So we can look forward to a succession of covid waves, which will almost certainly result in some further local lockdowns or even national ones.
It does seem the Gov't is using the pressure on the NHS as the key indicator to trigger national lock downs and raised R values for local lockdowns.
A very worrying situation has arisen. I have just seen on the BBC lunchtime news that Denmark has discovered a mutated strain of C19 in its population of Mink, which has jumped to Humans . It has apparently shown traits that it might be resistant to the vaccines that are currently being developed.
Mutation in all viruses is nothing new and most of the time should not cause concern.This article admirably sums up the situation. The good news is the the Danish cull may well lead to an end of the despicable cruel fur trade. Most pelts go to China! Not sure what happens to the Mink carcasses. Danish sausages🤪🤪
newseu.cgtn.com
Fingers crossed Prof this particular mutation is no more harmless to Homo Sapiens than the rest of Covid 19. It’s just most annoying that so many in our society continue to disobey the rules🤬🤬🤬
I see today our Chancellor has extended the furlough scheme to end of March 2021. Maybe a further lockdown extension is on the horizon or an adjusted Tier system?
What are mutated strains of COVID-19 and are they important?
Variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus are being discovered in Europe and around the world, but most of them are not a big deal.
newseu.cgtn.com
Fingers crossed Prof this particular mutation is no more harmless to Homo Sapiens than the rest of Covid 19. It’s just most annoying that so many in our society continue to disobey the rules🤬🤬🤬
I see today our Chancellor has extended the furlough scheme to end of March 2021. Maybe a further lockdown extension is on the horizon or an adjusted Tier system?
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Looked as if they are being culled by feeding into a shredder. When we had a small holding in Dartmoor one took out several of our ducks. We got it entrapped between the garage and a terrace wall. Suffice to say it ended there. They are wanting killers of British wildlife.
Some Danish reports say that the mutation when in humans depresses the antibodies and could lead to reduced ability to fight the virus or reduced effectiveness of vaccines.
I would have no qualms about banning the trade but then if it goes underground there would be no safeguards to public health.
Is it fake or false news or simply stirring or ignorance. When the chancellor made the announcement, a woman MP, back bencher or opposition, I don’t know. Said, in order to play it down, that many countries have far bigger compensation packages than we do. She failed to give examples.
So I Googled it.
There is no consistent formulae so hard to make a comparison. And it is clear that a couple do support better than us. But we are very near the top of the table.
USA, have no grants, just loans, for example.
John
I raised the issue not becasue of the way mink are used, which is really a totally separate but valid debate, but becasue the virus has forged another infection route.Mutation in all viruses is nothing new and most of the time should not cause concern.This article admirably sums up the situation. The good news is the the Danish cull may well lead to an end of the despicable cruel fur trade. Most pelts go to China! Not sure what happens to the Mink carcasses. Danish sausages🤪🤪
What are mutated strains of COVID-19 and are they important?
Variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus are being discovered in Europe and around the world, but most of them are not a big deal.
Fingers crossed Prof this particular mutation is no more harmless to Homo Sapiens than the rest of Covid 19. It’s just most annoying that so many in our society continue to disobey the rules🤬🤬🤬
I see today our Chancellor has extended the furlough scheme to end of March 2021. Maybe a further lockdown extension is on the horizon or an adjusted Tier system?
This is worrying, becasue in many cases when a virus mutates for a number of reasons they tend to loose potency, but in this case the suggestion is it is just as potent. The fact it has mutated and become infectious to another species is as worrying, as it suggests the part of the virus that controls species compatibility is active and changing, and by the law of averages it will almost certainly eventually find even more new host species, broadening its attack strategy.
What we don't know for sure, but it seems likely is, the Mink were probably infected by human contact, which means the strain already has the human key. How many more species will it find a way to infect, and how many more ways will it mage to survive our attempts at lock down.
It is probably a relief for many to find the Gov't has extended the furlough scheme, and yes the provision to march 2021 opens the door for longer or more lockdowns.
I don't see J Loughie's point in comparing the UK scheme to elsewhere as the circumstances surrounding each countries approach will be different rendering differnt solutions. You can only access your own countries scheme so there's no point in being jealous or superior.
What we are seeing here Prof has been studied for decades. Zoonosis. The transfer of disease between humans and animals. As you point out to transfer a virus has to mutate. What is of great concern is multi transference animal to man to animal to man etc. Each time the mutation may or not become a stronger strain. I agree this is cause for concern and probably casts more thought on the origin in Wuhan. Was it man or animal. Was it a Sars virus that mutated? Probably yes!
On balance I suspect the frequency of mutation between the two species won’t hurt us more than present . Fortunately I don’t know of any Mink, Pangolins near me.
Defo one to keep an eye on and worth following the Royal Veterinary College papers.
On balance I suspect the frequency of mutation between the two species won’t hurt us more than present . Fortunately I don’t know of any Mink, Pangolins near me.
Defo one to keep an eye on and worth following the Royal Veterinary College papers.
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