Petrol and diesel can be sold in hybrids until 2035 so no need for quick decisions 😱
Live for now and see. Electric cars will make the most amazing towcars once the range price and charging is sorted and all that will come. Even if it doesn't, buy just before the cutoff say 2028!
The legislation only says no new ICE only cars can be sold in the UK. As far as I know it doesn't stop them being manufactured for export, and of course many commercial vehicles will still probably be using ICE.
But bearing in mind how battery technology is developing its quite possible that by 2030 there may may be a number of practical EVS that can tow caravans.
Nor, of course, is the forthcoming motive technology boxed into only being battery based.
Just started watching “ The Long Way Up” where they use electric Harley Davidsons supported by electric Rivian pick ups for the trip from Ushuaia in Patagonia to Los Angeles. Awesome motorbikes as they were special prototype adventure versions. Say nothing though about the myriad of charging stations Rivian installed en route to meet the bikes 100 mile range. That’s about a bikers normal range though before a ciggie and wee break is required, and legs need straightening.
But even so it is interesting viewing. In episode one a Rivian was being towed. It’s broken down I thought. But no it can be tow charged and they were testing the system.
But even so it is interesting viewing. In episode one a Rivian was being towed. It’s broken down I thought. But no it can be tow charged and they were testing the system.
We have not bought a new car for about 15 years due to price. Most of our cars have been around the 5 year mark.
However the BIG issue with EVs is price as not many of us will be able to afford a new EV and I doubt if there will be many second hand EVs available in 2030. Even if there are second hand ECs available, there is still the price issue.
Second hand diesel nearer the time should suit you-although am sort of predicting prices will go up rather than down as people panic buy before the cut off?!
I do agree that there is likely to be a spike in prices of diesel cars as the deadline approaches as people try to get the last few, but this assumes that the government of the time does not find it necessary to extend the final date for sales because we are not ready for an all electric future.
Then there will be the pricing strategy & any costs from demand influences on the fuel for ICE powered vehicles.
I don't dismiss fiscal tools coming into play to incentivise our shedding of ICE vehicles. Along with the reduction in domestic user demand, meaning the overheads of oil from the ground to fuel in our vehicles being carried by less takers. I don't see the overheads per litre reducing with reduced demand, but significantly the opposite.
It is too far off to make any informed judgement on the costs one way or the other retaining an ICE or switching away.
I am planning not to be owning a too newish, so still high value ICE vehicle, as we close in on 2030, thus high depreciation can be better absorbed if that is the way it leans. That said, at our ages we will be incredibly lucky if we are affected at all!
I don't dismiss fiscal tools coming into play to incentivise our shedding of ICE vehicles. Along with the reduction in domestic user demand, meaning the overheads of oil from the ground to fuel in our vehicles being carried by less takers. I don't see the overheads per litre reducing with reduced demand, but significantly the opposite.
It is too far off to make any informed judgement on the costs one way or the other retaining an ICE or switching away.
I am planning not to be owning a too newish, so still high value ICE vehicle, as we close in on 2030, thus high depreciation can be better absorbed if that is the way it leans. That said, at our ages we will be incredibly lucky if we are affected at all!
I don't share Raywood's view that there will be a change in the date for the ban on the sale of new ICE cars in the UK, but I do half expect there to be some method by which a new car will suddenly become secondhand allowing it to be sold.
I also expect the car manufactures to be well aware of the guillotine date, and they are planning now how to phase out ICE cars from their UK sales sites, and I doubt there will be a major glut of popular vehicles left unsold by Dc 31st 2029.
Approaching that date there will be fiscal pressure to move away from ICE cars, such as significant hikes on fossil fuel duty, road fund tax and of course assuming there will be a reducing number of ICE cars on the road reducing the quantity of fossil fuel being used the cost of producing petrol and diesel will accelerate above inflation pushing the cost per litre up and up.
We ware already seeing charges for moving through low or zero emmision zones being rolled out, and there are only going to become more numerous. In some places ICE cars may banned completely not even being allowed to enter some areas.
Rather like smoking, social pressure might also see drivers of ICE cars being frowned on.
Its almost certain multiple types of pressure will be brought to bear on all road users to move away from ICE.
There may be some alternative solutions, but the vast majority will be battery, but some others may be hydrogen fuel cell, or possibly others yet to be discovered.
The change has started. EV's have shown a massive upswing in sales and in some markets are now a greater proportion than ICE. This trend is going to increase - especially where governments like the UK have set out specific target dates.
We are going to have to embrace these changes - it is highly likely we will need to reconsider what we drive - even if we drive, How we go and when.
For some there may be other changes such as using an EV as a local energy store, some fleet operators may even be able to trade on the energy capacity of their fleet, buying power when cheap and selling back to the grid when more expensive.
There is a wealth of opportunities ahead.
In the mean time I do support the calls for Gov't to normalise the way to pay for charging cars away from the hotchpotch system that has so far evolved in the UK .
I also expect the car manufactures to be well aware of the guillotine date, and they are planning now how to phase out ICE cars from their UK sales sites, and I doubt there will be a major glut of popular vehicles left unsold by Dc 31st 2029.
Approaching that date there will be fiscal pressure to move away from ICE cars, such as significant hikes on fossil fuel duty, road fund tax and of course assuming there will be a reducing number of ICE cars on the road reducing the quantity of fossil fuel being used the cost of producing petrol and diesel will accelerate above inflation pushing the cost per litre up and up.
We ware already seeing charges for moving through low or zero emmision zones being rolled out, and there are only going to become more numerous. In some places ICE cars may banned completely not even being allowed to enter some areas.
Rather like smoking, social pressure might also see drivers of ICE cars being frowned on.
Its almost certain multiple types of pressure will be brought to bear on all road users to move away from ICE.
There may be some alternative solutions, but the vast majority will be battery, but some others may be hydrogen fuel cell, or possibly others yet to be discovered.
The change has started. EV's have shown a massive upswing in sales and in some markets are now a greater proportion than ICE. This trend is going to increase - especially where governments like the UK have set out specific target dates.
We are going to have to embrace these changes - it is highly likely we will need to reconsider what we drive - even if we drive, How we go and when.
For some there may be other changes such as using an EV as a local energy store, some fleet operators may even be able to trade on the energy capacity of their fleet, buying power when cheap and selling back to the grid when more expensive.
There is a wealth of opportunities ahead.
In the mean time I do support the calls for Gov't to normalise the way to pay for charging cars away from the hotchpotch system that has so far evolved in the UK .
My question is that when EVs are introduced how is the government of the time going to recoup the billions in lost revenue? Loss of duty and VAT on fuel, annual road tax or duty, loss of income from VAT on spares, loss of VAT from garages doing servicing, etc plus the huge number of people that will be come unemployed as a result of moving across to EVs.
If I recall correctly doesn't a large part of the income from motorists fund the NHS and other institutions? Any one know the figures for the income that the motorist gives the government overall?
If I recall correctly doesn't a large part of the income from motorists fund the NHS and other institutions? Any one know the figures for the income that the motorist gives the government overall?
Whack up the ICE fuel cost, their VED, introduce an insurance levy to cover the health cost associated with their pollution
The "honeymoon" period EVs enjoy presently is not cast in concrete, it will change, just be held more attractive than that for ICEs whilst the option to use them is there.
Even if road tax/duty on an EV was the same as a normal car, there is nothing that can compensate for the loss of VAT/duty on fuel etc.Whack up the ICE fuel cost, their VED, introduce an insurance levy to cover the health cost associated with their pollution
The "honeymoon" period EVs enjoy presently is not cast in concrete, it will change, just be held more attractive than that for ICEs whilst the option to use them is there.
Oh no, I feel there is a great deal that could be done, just one obvious example is road charging.
Road use charging aligned with time of use, will probably feature highly perhaps with a minimum standing charge to cover those who do a very low mileage.
A big plus of EV will be far less servicing required and higher reliability which will have an impact on the motor trade. But ICE and hybrid ICE will be around for many years. Yes jobs will be lost but I guess the grooms and stable staff were similarly affected as ICE took over from horse drawn vehicles. In any major change there are bound to be both positive and negative impacts.
A big plus of EV will be far less servicing required and higher reliability which will have an impact on the motor trade. But ICE and hybrid ICE will be around for many years. Yes jobs will be lost but I guess the grooms and stable staff were similarly affected as ICE took over from horse drawn vehicles. In any major change there are bound to be both positive and negative impacts.
There will be some loss of employment as ICE related jobs are no longer required. But this isn't all going to happen suddenly overnight. As OC has pointed out there will still be many ICE vehicles in use when 2030 arrives, and realistically a reducing number will still need to be fuelled and maintained for several decades beyond 2030. I anticipate most of the job losses will almost be matched by the number of technicians etc reaching retirement age, and there will still be a need for technicians to work on the new EV's so between retraining and natural retirements the number people being made redundant will be a small percentage. I am not making light of this but as anyone being made redundant has a lot to deal with.
As for the recovery of lost tax revenue from cars etc. JTQ has already mentioned road charging. This already happens in some places, but the Gov't has plenty of options available to them.
For example :-
A VED system which uses a vehicles MAM rather than emissions as the differentiator.
Increased the price of an MOT to include an element of VED
Or charge for mileage covered based on MOT records
Or if a more equitable system is required, that accounts for the wear and tare a vehicle a causes a combination of the vehicle weight and mileage covered would work.
With the present available methods of charging EV's its not possible to load the cost onto electricity bills, as the bill cannot differentiate between house current and car current.
Given your scenario we will just then have to accept restraints that on spending on health, education, transport, defence, environment etc. How far could a government allow these to fall before they risk a backlash. I’m sure there will be a way of even taxing your electric as used for charging. Your lead could provide feedback and location when charging at home and commercial charging points could just be taxed like fuel.
I had thought much along the same lines, charging involving a "handshake" so the vehicle along with much else is identified, and instead of the eleccy pumped in being vat rated at 5%, it could have a similar fuel taxation and full on vat rate applied. The distance, timing when used and from the vehicles GPS road and location use all downloaded for billing. Even as industrial users can be charged now by their kW profile, that can be noted and the tariffs adjusted for the timing it is taken and burden on the grid etc.
I think it is wishful thinking they can't recoup any losses in ICE fuel revenues. The technologies to do such things are available, they just need to be implemented.
The problem is there is no standard communications protocol set up, so vehicles produced up until now will not have the necessary automated communication that can be used to report the charging information back to HMRC.
At least with things like the class of vehicle, its MAM can be based on its registration mark and annual mileages are already collected at the MOT and entered into a Govt computer system so the information is already there.
It can be as blunt as the old VED system was, or it can evaluate the actual usage and levy a charge accordingly.
I’m sure it will be like changes to VED / emmisions as new rates come into play older vehicles still stay on the older system but can still have their payment tariffs increased. But fully agree that some form of protocol is required for charging for the electricity usage particularly at home, office or from hosts system when at a dinner party. But cars are already able to indicate their location in the event of an accident or breakdown. It would not be too difficult to use GPS or What3words Words to locate and another system to monitor electric consumption. Systems to use the car as an energy feedback source will do this in reverse so I’m sure minds are grappling with this one.
Road pricing is the other option but polls indicate drivers don’t like it and might prefer to pay for electricity as analogous to buying petrol or diesel. But either way £40 bn has to be found at today’s prices. But it won’t all happen in 2030 or even 2035 given ICE will be around as pure ICE or hybrid for a while after that.
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I’m sure the Gov't has some thinktank looking at how to extract tax revenue from EV drivers. All we can do at this stage is to speculate. Hopefully they will announce what they are going to do before just applying it.
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