No new diesel cars after 2030

[otherclive]

However what is the cost per mile as using mpg is not in the equation? To get a better idea of cost per mile I would think that one would need to take into account the difference in cost between the EV and the equivalent petrol or diesel vehicle and the cost of charging the vehicle. An EV is probably okay around town, but not long distance or towing.
I still need to be convinced that electric cars are the future. Somehow I doubt it as the electric mainly still needs to come from fossil fuels. There is probably an alternative, but we have not found it yet.

Even electric generated from fossil fuels has an overall efficiency greater than burning fossil fuel in an ICE. But in U.K. coal is hardly ever used now and so our fossil fuels will be gas which emits less CO2 compared to coal. Although Bosch working with a large Chinese truck maker have got a truck diesel up to 50% efficiency. But car ICE are less.

Jezzers figure for equivalent cost and mpg for the MINIEV do take into account electric charging costs.

 

[JezzerB]

Thanks Clive, yes they do take into account electricity-and in OCtober when our fixed deal ends we'll be looking to go(!) with something like Octopus go-5p unit between midnight and 4-I can set our Mini to charge at that time only and even if empty it'll be nigh on full on our 7kw charger. (£550 with gov grant btw-an added expense but it does come with what the EV community call a Granny charger that is a std uk pin plug charger and takes around 10hours.

I asked Mini this morning while we were having our Roadster S mot'd what the service cost would be-took a big breath and said he could n't say exactly as they were too new and they'd not done one but he expected £200 ever 2 years which would include pollen filter and brake fluid change. In contrast the petrol is £200 every 2 years as the EV but every other after that is around £500 for the full shebang-plugs etc. Mini servicing prices are not cheap any more!

Another plus for us is that we live about 11miles from Lincoln, Gainsborough and Newark -the closest petrol stations-and so we no longer have to worry about a 20 plus mile round trip to fill up!

 

[RogerL]

Even electric generated from fossil fuels has an overall efficiency greater than burning fossil fuel in an ICE. But in U.K. coal is hardly ever used now and so our fossil fuels will be gas which emits less CO2 compared to coal. Although Bosch working with a large Chinese truck maker have got a truck diesel up to 50% efficiency. But car ICE are less.

Jezzers figure for equivalent cost and mpg for the MINIEV do take into account electric charging costs.

Much of the technology in modern cars, more so in EVs, is made in China where coal-fired power stations are the norm so it's two-faced to suggest that EVs are clean overall.

EVs are clean at point of use, so ideal for city use.

 

[JezzerB]

I hope I made it clear I'm not saying that and have clearly stated we didn't buy it for that reason though of course if it helps, so be it. It simply saves us a lot of money while being more fun than I've had on 4 wheels for a heck of a long time! The debate over whether they are greener will run and run but of course your argument that parts are made in China are no different to ordinary ICE cars surely?

 

[RogerL]

I hope I made it clear I'm not saying that and have clearly stated we didn't buy it for that reason though of course if it helps, so be it. It simply saves us a lot of money while being more fun than I've had on 4 wheels for a heck of a long time! The debate over whether they are greener will run and run but of course your argument that parts are made in China are no different to ordinary ICE cars surely?

Batteries are a huge part of an EV's cost - many of the batteries and/or components/materials are from China.

 

[otherclive]

Much of the technology in modern cars, more so in EVs, is made in China where coal-fired power stations are the norm so it's two-faced to suggest that EVs are clean overall.

EVs are clean at point of use, so ideal for city use.

But we have got to start somewhere or there will no no progress. It’s okay for western countries to point the finger at others after we have had our share of dirty polluting fuels upon which to build our economies and raise the standard of living for our citizens What would your proposals be to counter increasing CO2 levels and climate change?

 

[Buckman]

But we have got to start somewhere or there will no no progress. It’s okay for western countries to point the finger at others after we have had our share of dirty polluting fuels upon which to build our economies and raise the standard of living for our citizens What would your proposals be to counter increasing CO2 levels and climate change?

Why are Britons being singled out and penalised by our own government? The UK may go green, but does that mean our air is going to be any cleaner as surely it will still be polluted by air coming from the continent and elsewhere.
We may be setting an example, but that does not mean that other countries wil follow.
The cynic in me is thinking that they are pushing us towards green for ulterior motives so that they can increase taxes on environmentally friendly EVs and other issues as they have to make up the lost taxes from somewhere.

 

[otherclive]

Why are Britons being singled out and penalised by our own government? The UK may go green, but does that mean our air is going to be any cleaner as surely it will still be polluted by air coming from the continent and elsewhere.
We may be setting an example, but that does not mean that other countries wil follow.
The cynic in me is thinking that they are pushing us towards green for ulterior motives so that they can increase taxes on environmentally friendly EVs and other issues as they have to make up the lost taxes from somewhere.

It’s not just Britons is it? The EU has generally similar targets, and if you look at Ford and GM statements worldwide they don’t plan to produce all ICE beyond 2030. I doubt they are doing that because of UKs policies. Pollution isn’t the big driver it’s CO2, but irrespective most of our air comes from the west not the Continent. Whilst it’s true China relies heavily on coal power they are rapidly pushing forwards with electric technology. Shenzhen has 16000 EV buses and 22000 EV taxis. That’s just one city. Could you tell me the combined figures for Europe, UK and USA. You would be very surprised.

https://electrek.co/2021/02/04/the-city-with-16000-electric-buses-and-22000-electric-taxis/

 

[RogerL]

But we have got to start somewhere or there will no no progress. It’s okay for western countries to point the finger at others after we have had our share of dirty polluting fuels upon which to build our economies and raise the standard of living for our citizens What would your proposals be to counter increasing CO2 levels and climate change?

My proposals? Population reduction, much better public transport, electrification of domestic heating/cooking, restrictions on air travel - for starters anyway.

 

[JezzerB]

Volvo, JLR and ford have all given dates for ev production only so it really isn't just the UK . China are massively into green tech and ev's are very popular there. China only account for 39% of EV battery production so am still v happy with our choice and Nissans next battery plant will be in the UK. With Cornish lithium mines looking promising. I think China have tried population control already Roger and as for public transport.......

Interesting to see how every item of electric vehicle manufacture is dissected in terms of CO2 emissions when it's taken for granted that an ice car is clean. The steel iron and aluminium melting still depends on coal An engine block casting v a battery. Difference, don't know but maybe not as different as you'd think?

 

[Robert_374373903]

Just wondering after reading this thread. Will I have to get rid of my 2011 Octavia with present mileage of 108767 in ten years time.

 

[RogerL]

Just wondering after reading this thread. Will I have to get rid of my 2011 Octavia with present mileage of 108767 in ten years time.

No, petrol and diesel cars will last long after 2030 even if new ones can't be sold - I'll be keeping my 2015 Touareg indefinitely but I'll probably buy a secondhand EV to run around on short journeys.

 

[otherclive]

Just wondering after reading this thread. Will I have to get rid of my 2011 Octavia with present mileage of 108767 in ten years time.

Why if it’s still running okay? If you don’t wish to change it that will be your choice dependant on other factors in place at the time that could affect your decision. There are no policies in place at present to drive ICE cars off of the road other than polluting vehicles out of clean air zones. But that is a different issue to climate change.

 

[ProfJohnL]

Electricity has to be one of the least efficient ways to power things yet they are being shoved down our throats. Glad somebody finally put engineering and maths to paper.

Let me put these figures to you, and as an Engineer you should appreciate the logic and truth behind them. You will know that energy efficiency is calculated on:-

(Energy out/Energy in) and unusually expressed as a percentage.

If we consider two similar frugal cars where one has an ICE and can do 60mpg and the other is a EV that manages to do 5 miles per kWh. These are both realistic figures for models that are available now, and can form the basis of a fair and reasonable comparison. I have chosen these values becasue the can easily be related to each other:-

The ICE car will use 1 gallon of petrol to travel 60 miles, and the EV will use (60/5) = 12kWh to make the same journey.

It is well documented that EV's typically have a battery to motive power efficiency of 85 to 90%. if I use the worst case scenario of 85%, which means the EV wasted about 15% of 12kWh energy used. This means the actual energy used to move EV was only 10.2 kWh and the other 1.8kWh was wasted as heat.

This usefully illustrates that ICE car will also only need about 10.2kWh or slightly less becasue its less heavy (No motive power battery) to complete the journey.

However the ICE car uses a whole gallon of fuel, and the energy available in a gallon of petrol is about 44kWh. yet the car only actually needs 10.2kWh for the journey so it must be wasting
33.8kWh of energy.

The relative on board fuel efficiencies are therefore:-

ICE (10.2/44)100 = 23% and the EV (10.2/12)100 = 85%.

I must now factor in the inefficiencies of generating power of the EV. There generating companies publish figures to show how efferently they can generate electricity. A recent publication has shown that the newest gas powered generator has an efficiency of 63%. This exceptional, in more general terms the UK power generators typically achieve about a 50% fuel to power efficiency including transmission losses.

If we apply that figure onto the EV's efficiency it still shows as 85% x 50% = 42.5% which is still nearly twice that of the ICE engined car.

And further still, energy storage efficiency in an EV battery is about 80% so lets apply that loss to the EV's figure 42.5% x 80% = 34% Which is about the worst case scenario possible for the EV and still its about 50% better overall than the ICE car.

The final raw (worst case for EV) fuel to motive energy figure are therefore.

ICE 23% and EV 34% approximately.

Different comparisons may produce different figures, but in the vast majority of comparable vehicles EV's will prove to be more efficient than ICE.

 

[JezzerB]

That's really interesting Prof. Thank you.

 

[otherclive]

Let me put these figures to you, and as an Engineer you should appreciate the logic and truth behind them. You will know that energy efficiency is calculated on:-

(Energy out/Energy in) and unusually expressed as a percentage.

If we consider two similar frugal cars where one has an ICE and can do 60mpg and the other is a EV that manages to do 5 miles per kWh. These are both realistic figures for models that are available now, and can form the basis of a fair and reasonable comparison. I have chosen these values becasue the can easily be related to each other:-

The ICE car will use 1 gallon of petrol to travel 60 miles, and the EV will use (60/5) = 12kWh to make the same journey.

It is well documented that EV's typically have a battery to motive power efficiency of 85 to 90%. if I use the worst case scenario of 85%, which means the EV wasted about 15% of 12kWh energy used. This means the actual energy used to move EV was only 10.2 kWh and the other 1.8kWh was wasted as heat.

This usefully illustrates that ICE car will also only need about 10.2kWh or slightly less becasue its less heavy (No motive power battery) to complete the journey.

However the ICE car uses a whole gallon of fuel, and the energy available in a gallon of petrol is about 44kWh. yet the car only actually needs 10.2kWh for the journey so it must be wasting
33.8kWh of energy.

The relative on board fuel efficiencies are therefore:-

ICE (10.2/44)100 = 23% and the EV (10.2/12)100 = 85%.

I must now factor in the inefficiencies of generating power of the EV. There generating companies publish figures to show how efferently they can generate electricity. A recent publication has shown that the newest gas powered generator has an efficiency of 63%. This exceptional, in more general terms the UK power generators typically achieve about a 50% fuel to power efficiency including transmission losses.

If we apply that figure onto the EV's efficiency it still shows as 85% x 50% = 42.5% which is still nearly twice that of the ICE engined car.

And further still, energy storage efficiency in an EV battery is about 80% so lets apply that loss to the EV's figure 42.5% x 80% = 34% Which is about the worst case scenario possible for the EV and still its about 50% better overall than the ICE car.

The final raw (worst case for EV) fuel to motive energy figure are therefore.

ICE 23% and EV 34% approximately.

Different comparisons may produce different figures, but in the vast majority of comparable vehicles EV's will prove to be more efficient than ICE.

Prof
Engineering and maths combined to show the efficiency of electric. Thank you.

In a totally different area some major naval vessels and cruise vessels went electric from the mid 90s onwards and the gains in overall energy efficiency were significant, plus system reliability improved. Don’t forget the QE2 was also converted to an electric propulsion system late in her life.

 

[otherclive]

I doubt very much if most of UK energy is generated from solar and wind on a sunny windy day. If so how much fossil fuel was used to build, transport, erect and maintain these monstrosities that blight the countryside?

I know it is the Daily Mail but the article is interesting. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/...new-hybrid-car-isnt-nearly-green-thought.html

In reality what the article is revealing is that the new global harmonised test conducted in a laboratory isn’t related to real world driving. Basically what it does give is a comparison between different cars.
Years ago it was well known that the Prius was great mpg around town but on the open road it’s mpg fell as battery utilisation drooped.

There are so many different hybrids it’s difficult to generalise but battery range is one significant factor. If the car does a decent range on battery say 30 miles it may meet many people’s daily needs. However if the owner fails to charge it then it’s electrical range drops and overall fuel economy falls. Some hybrids barely manage 2 miles range. But within the scope of such a large range difference all are subjected to the same testing regime.

So it’s a bit rich to criticise hybrids in general when they cover such a wide range of designs from self charging to plug in etc.

 

[Guzzilazz]

My diesel goes early next week... Be interesting to see how the XC40 190 petrol mhev works towing...

 

[ProfJohnL]

Following on from Othercives post above, I deliberately did not touch on the hybrids, becasue the there are so many more variables and it would be misleading to give one generalised example when there would in practice be such a wide variation.

But I will comment on the story Buckman tells of "Eric" who found his car only did about 25miles on pure electric. The way the story was told suggests Eric was not aware of the principle behinds PHEV's and was expecting it to do more than it was designed to do. You do not have to stop when the hybrids battery is discharged, the car will still run on its ICE engine., and in fact you can charge the battery whilst driving, but the basic idea is to charge from the mains over night so its ready for the morning.

PHEV's are primarily designed to offer best economy where local short journeys are the norm. They're not best for long journey's. It's also important to realise that the Volt was an early PHEV contender, and more recent models have improved genre.

 

[otherclive]

My diesel goes early next week... Be interesting to see how the XC40 190 petrol mhev works towing...

Be interested to get feedback on how it tows and range solo on battery.

 

[Beachball]

My diesel goes early next week... Be interesting to see how the XC40 190 petrol mhev works towing...

i also would be interested on feedback on this car when you are towing keep us updated on here

 

[otherclive]

Following on from Othercives post above, I deliberately did not touch on the hybrids, becasue the there are so many more variables and it would be misleading to give one generalised example when there would in practice be such a wide variation.

But I will comment on the story Buckman tells of "Eric" who found his car only did about 25miles on pure electric. The way the story was told suggests Eric was not aware of the principle behinds PHEV's and was expecting it to do more than it was designed to do. You do not have to stop when the hybrids battery is discharged, the car will still run on its ICE engine., and in fact you can charge the battery whilst driving, but the basic idea is to charge from the mains over night so its ready for the morning.

PHEV's are primarily designed to offer best economy where local short journeys are the norm. They're not best for long journey's. It's also important to realise that the Volt was an early PHEV contender, and more recent models have improved genre.

The Chevrolet Volt was sold here as the Vauxhall Ampera. On my daily circuit I pass a 2014 model which still looks elegant. They had a 100000 mile 10 year warranty. 50 mile battery range and 0-60 in 9 seconds. Overall it was ahead of its time. But apart from towing a caravan the 50 mile battery range would meet most of our daily journey needs and even on petrol for the longer journeys the mpg is good. The only problem from
my perspective would be it would probably get used more for quick shopping trips. Whereas our two cars rarely if ever just go to the local shops. If they do the trips are combined or else the car will be taken for a longer jaunt up and down the by pass a couple of times to warm it through so no white oil emulsion. I’m a bit of an anorak in that direction. 😂

 

[JezzerB]

Please keep us posted Guzzilaz.

 

[RogerL]

The Chevrolet Volt was sold here as the Vauxhall Ampera. On my daily circuit I pass a 2014 model which still looks elegant. They had a 100000 mile 10 year warranty. 50 mile battery range and 0-60 in 9 seconds. Overall it was ahead of its time. But apart from towing a caravan the 50 mile battery range would meet most of our daily journey needs and even on petrol for the longer journeys the mpg is good. The only problem from
my perspective would be it would probably get used more for quick shopping trips. Whereas our two cars rarely if ever just go to the local shops. If they do the trips are combined or else the car will be taken for a longer jaunt up and down the by pass a couple of times to warm it through so no white oil emulsion. I’m a bit of an anorak in that direction. 😂

It took Vauxhall over 3 years to sell their first year's allocation of Ampera so most of them will have spent a long time in storage - as a result of poor sales Vauxhall, and Opel, withdrew it from sale although it stayed on sale in America as the Chevrolet Volt. A big proportion of all the Amperas imported into the UK are for sale on Autotrader, it seems not many people want one.

 

[otherclive]

It took Vauxhall over 3 years to sell their first year's allocation of Ampera so most of them will have spent a long time in storage - as a result of poor sales Vauxhall, and Opel, withdrew it from sale although it stayed on sale in America as the Chevrolet Volt. A big proportion of all the Amperas imported into the UK are for sale on Autotrader, it seems not many people want one.

At over £30k in 2014 it was quite expensive and of course there was no real motivation for hybrid or even petrol engines back then. The world here was still diesel. But nevertheless it was a portent of changes to come.