Second Lockdown 😥😥😥😥😥😥😥

[ProfJohnL]

Thank you Parksy for your clarification.

Apparently with the latest areas to be brought into tier 3 we now have 38M or over 50% of the UK population under the tightest regime. , and yet as a nation our infection rates are still rising. By contrast Herefordshire has moved from Tier 2 to 1.

It does seem the areas with the lowest population density are managing better, and those with the highest (typically metropolitan and urban areas) are failing. This is a pattern we are seeing across Europe. I have not watched the USA's infection pattern as closely, but I believe a similar story has happened there.

As others have suggested I'm inclined to think we will see another TOTAL lockdown or at least some further major intervention sometime in 2021 as the Pfizer vaccination programme cannot be accelerated radically becasue of the logistics storing, transporting and preparing the units. When other vaccines that don't need the super cold storage become available vaccinations could begin to take place at more locations.

 

[Buckman]

As we are unable to go away for Christmas we have decided to donate some of the money we would have spent on site fees to the Salvation Army and hopefully it will give a family some joy.

 

[otherclive]

What is the target vaccination rate for Pfizer and its delivery schedule compared to the people in the various age groups who will be progressively vaccinated. Knowing this it’s not difficult to predict when those most at risk will be vaccinated. That will then tell you when the most severe restrictions can be progressively lifted and economic life and social contacts can resume albeit not yet necessarily totally normal.
Im sure the epidemiological community together with logisticians, PHE et al are working on this one right now. The introduction of the Oxford vaccine would make the task simpler. Trying to predict the type, region or duration of future “ lockdowns”without access to data and models is pure speculation.

 

[Jcloughie]

As we are unable to go away for Christmas we have decided to donate some of the money we would have spent on site fees to the Salvation Army and hopefully it will give a family some joy.

We are doing the same.

John

 

[Dustydog]

My Mum and MIL were vaccinated today. As said previously it was not a quick process. Post the jab they had to sit around for 15 minutes to ensure no anaphalctic shock reaction.
MIL in Birmingham sat with others , many not wearing masks for health or religious reasons. Draw your own conclusions. Glad I live in the sticks😎. On Clive’s points I suspect , by Easter the vaccine program will have progressed very well gradually going through the various demographic groups. Note Furlough has been extended again and indeed may well go beyond Easter.

 

[otherclive]

My Mum and MIL were vaccinated today. As said previously it was not a quick process. Post the jab they had to sit around for 15 minutes to ensure no anaphalctic shock reaction.
MIL in Birmingham sat with others , many not wearing masks for health or religious reasons. Draw your own conclusions. Glad I live in the sticks😎. On Clive’s points I suspect , by Easter the vaccine program will have progressed very well gradually going through the various demographic groups. Note Furlough has been extended again and indeed may well go beyond Easter.

That’s good news for them. I appreciate that it’s a two jab process plus a few further days for the full effects to be gained but the US FDA have identified measurable immune response in 5-6 days which will go some way towards building resistance progressively through the course of treatment.

 

[Beachball]

As we are unable to go away for Christmas we have decided to donate some of the money we would have spent on site fees to the Salvation Army and hopefully it will give a family some joy.

We have already donated some stuff to the salvation Army i have friend who goes every week . where we live .

 

[ProfJohnL]

Trying to predict the type, region or duration of future “ lockdowns”without access to data and models is pure speculation.

Yes it is speculation, but it's not a wild guess in the dark, it is a considered opinion, which was also strongly hinted at by Prof Witty in this weeks briefing. As I indicated previously I hope I'm proved wrong, but all the indicators I have seen so far suggests to me at least 6 to9 months or longer before enough of the population has been effectively vaccinated to put a dent in the access to transmission of C19

To put some perspective into the scale of the task:-

The BMI have a plan

COVID-19 vaccination programme

This guidance provides detail about the tCOVID-19 vaccination programme in England.

www.bma.org.uk

This tells us that it will be normal for a group of General Practices within a PCN area to cooperate and designat just one practice to be the vaccination hub for that area. From my own area I know the ratio is going to be at least 1:5 and could be greater.

According to GPOnline in 2019 the number of GP practices in the UK was about 7000, which if the dilution ratio is correct means we will have only about 1400 covid vaccination centers.

According to the Daily Telegraph, each center will have a capacity of about 975 vaccinations per week, that roughly equates to 4000 appointments per month. However all the vaccines under consideration require a second dose at 21 to 28 days intervals, which means some of the monthly capacity will be used up by patients having the second dose. This means only about 3000 patients per month will complete the vaccination course in each center.

That means across the UK 1400 x 3000 = 420,000 might be achieved per month.

We have a UK population of about 66M, Which means it would take about 27.7months to vaccinate the whole population. The Government has indicated it intends to vaccinate the population based on descending age. The most at risk are those over 65, and we currently have about 16M people age 65 and over

16M people (24% of the population) at 420K vaccinations per month is still going to take about 6.7 months without slippage.

With such long time scales for the vaccination programme, it will mean that the risk of transmission or becoming infected would remain high initially, and especially with the Christmas relaxation of regulations few will doubt the infection rates will spike again triggering the need for major restrictions to protect the capacity of the NHS.

 

[otherclive]

Yes it is speculation, but it's not a wild guess in the dark, it is a considered opinion, which was also strongly hinted at by Prof Witty in this weeks briefing. As I indicated previously I hope I'm proved wrong, but all the indicators I have seen so far suggests to me at least 6 to9 months or longer before enough of the population has been effectively vaccinated to put a dent in the access to transmission of C19

To put some perspective into the scale of the task:-

The BMI have a plan

COVID-19 vaccination programme

This guidance provides detail about the tCOVID-19 vaccination programme in England.

www.bma.org.uk

This tells us that it will be normal for a group of General Practices within a PCN area to cooperate and designat just one practice to be the vaccination hub for that area. From my own area I know the ratio is going to be at least 1:5 and could be greater.

According to GPOnline in 2019 the number of GP practices in the UK was about 7000, which if the dilution ratio is correct means we will have only about 1400 covid vaccination centers.

According to the Daily Telegraph, each center will have a capacity of about 975 vaccinations per week, that roughly equates to 4000 appointments per month. However all the vaccines under consideration require a second dose at 21 to 28 days intervals, which means some of the monthly capacity will be used up by patients having the second dose. This means only about 3000 patients per month will complete the vaccination course in each center.

That means across the UK 1400 x 3000 = 420,000 might be achieved per month.

We have a UK population of about 66M, Which means it would take about 27.7months to vaccinate the whole population. The Government has indicated it intends to vaccinate the population based on descending age. The most at risk are those over 65, and we currently have about 16M people age 65 and over

16M people (24% of the population) at 420K vaccinations per month is still going to take about 6.7 months without slippage.

With such long time scales for the vaccination programme, it will mean that the risk of transmission or becoming infected would remain high initially, and especially with the Christmas relaxation of regulations few will doubt the infection rates will spike again triggering the need for major restrictions to protect the capacity of the NHS.

Thank you for a useful post but has it taken account of the large hub centres that are being set up to complement GP hubs? The large hub vaccination rates should be much higher and add to GP output.

 

[JezzerB]

Other vaccines coming online Have an easier delivery method I think and hopefully speed things up.

 

[Parksy]

I've just this week been given a priority weekly delivery slot by one of our local supermarkets.
This delivery slot allows us to have our groceries delivered on the same day at the same time every week, with no worries about the availability of delivery time slots because ours is guaranteed.
This priority option will last from the end of December until June next year, so it doesn't look as though supermarket bosses are expecting the easing of C19 restrictions anytime soon.

 

[Buckman]

I've just this week been given a priority weekly delivery slot by one of our local supermarkets.
This delivery slot allows us to have our groceries delivered on the same day at the same time every week, with no worries about the availability of delivery time slots because ours is guaranteed.
This priority option will last from the end of December until June next year, so it doesn't look as though supermarket bosses are expecting the easing of C19 restrictions anytime soon.

Which supermarket does that as we are with Sainsbury and Morrisons? Thanks.

 

[Dustydog]

HMG will be issuing weekly vaccination rates. On the first day this week 108000 were achieved in England alone. Our main hospital has an operational hub. The railway museum is also a hub. A lot of advanced planning was made and the turn key start on Monday was a success. As the experts become more dexterous at the task I expect the numbers will improve. The Profs figures certainly correlate with what I read. Sadly I too do not expect the vaccination program to be complete before June 2021. On that note I do wish everyone on here a very happy and safe Christmas. Let’s hope we can dust down our caravans for a spring break.

 

[otherclive]

Our first booked foray is to Wales end of March. Perhaps not the best of choices ☹️☹️ But if things are about the same as they were in late October we would plan to go as during our four trips July-October campers were all acting very responsibly and apart from one foray into a pub-restaurant we stayed out of busy areas. The van has just been serviced and came through AOK.

 

[Parksy]

Which supermarket does that as we are with Sainsbury and Morrisons? Thanks.

Both Tesco and Asda offer priority delivery slots to vulnerable customers.
I think that we got one because I live in an area badly affected by C19 and the local authority listed shielded vulnerable residents at the start of the pandemic.
I didn't have to make a formal application, they contacted me.

 

[ProfJohnL]

Other vaccines coming online Have an easier delivery method I think and hopefully speed things up.

Whilst obviating the need for deep frozen local storage will make it easier to distribute, there will still be a bottle neck because of the need to record and manage the actual vaccinations.

 

[ProfJohnL]

Thank you for a useful post but has it taken account of the large hub centres that are being set up to complement GP hubs? The large hub vaccination rates should be much higher and add to GP output.

The BMA plan made no mention of large hubs, except as distribution centres.

I do know the preference is to use local centers to administer the vaccines to reduce the possibility of cross infections where large numbers of people may gather or pass through.

 

[otherclive]

Whilst obviating the need for deep frozen local storage will make it easier to distribute, there will still be a bottle neck because of the need to record and manage the actual vaccinations.

But it will make it so much easier to use mobile teams for care homes or even housebound vulnerable. Where my fathers partner lives is over 55 s apartments but not a care home. Many of the residents are virtually housebound not just because of Covid. Most are served by the single local health Center. So a mobile team would be effective.

 

[otherclive]

The BMI plan made no mention of large hubs, except as distribution centres.

I do know the preference is to use local centers to administer the vaccines to reduce the possibility of cross infections where large numbers of people may gather or pass through.

There are at present 50 or so major hospitals set up or setting up as vaccination hubs.

 

[Beachball]

We have a priority slot with Asda since the first lockdown they delivered the food between 7 - 8 am every Wednesday we do have Tesco for backup if we need them . and i was contacted on my mobile with me been vulnerable even got a box of food delivered from the government did not like UHT milk

 

[Beachball]

We also give to food bank every week to help people who need extra help this winter

 

[Jcloughie]

The BMI plan made no mention of large hubs, except as distribution centres.

I do know the preference is to use local centers to administer the vaccines to reduce the possibility of cross infections where large numbers of people may gather or pass through.

Just to be pedantic, it’s BMA. 😏. But I do hope your BMI is OK.

We have a priority slot with Asda since the first lockdown they delivered the food between 7 - 8 am every Wednesday we do have Tesco for backup if we need them . and i was contacted on my mobile with me been vulnerable even got a box of food delivered from the government did not like UHT milk

I was incorrectly listed in the vulnerable group early on. Can’t seem to get myself taken off the list. Before I realised it was a mistake I registered with Tesco. They checked with a central database somewhere. I now have an added priority tab pop up on the booking screen.

I have over the year had about 8 phone calls from both central and local government checking on me and making sure I had all the help I needed. I have no need for this added support so politely declined. But it was reassuring to know that those truly on the vulnerable list were receiving this option of support.

John

 

[ProfJohnL]

There are at present 50 or so major hospitals set up or setting up as vaccination hubs.

But how many vaccinations can they carry out ? obviously it depends on how many teams they deploy, but realistically each team will still face the same administrative requirements as the GP teams so their through put is still going to be similar to the GP units.

Every little bit will help but its not going to make more than a few percent difference to the overall time scale.

The BMA plan suggests each team will mange 975 vaccinations per week. Assuming its 5 day week with 12 hour session that equates to 3.7 patients per hour that's close to 15min per vaccination. Don't forget there will have to be some sanitisation and administration time between patients.

The vaccination in care homes will of course take place but the teams are most likely to be taken from the GP hubs or the hospital. The delivery of vaccinations will be more difficult becasue of the environment will be more challenging, and of course there will be travelling time between care homes.

To make big difference It will need a lot more vaccination hubs to be established or the admin element reduced, but there needs to be good record keeping to ensure the second dose is correctly timed and administered.

Which ever way you look at it, the vaccination programme is a massive task, and we need it to be carried out effectively, we don't need to have any short cuts that compromise its delivery or effectiveness.

 

[otherclive]

There are a number of calculators that give estimates of when you might expect to receive the vaccine. Clearly local conditions and things such as winter weather may influence the actual timescales.

https://www.omnicalculator.com/health/vaccine-queue-uk#atrisk

 

[Beachball]

Just to be pedantic, it’s BMA. 😏. But I do hope your BMI is OK.



I was incorrectly listed in the vulnerable group early on. Can’t seem to get myself taken off the list. Before I realised it was a mistake I registered with Tesco. They checked with a central database somewhere. I now have an added priority tab pop up on the booking screen.

I have over the year had about 8 phone calls from both central and local government checking on me and making sure I had all the help I needed. I have no need for this added support so politely declined. But it was reassuring to know that those truly on the vulnerable list were receiving this option of support.

John

Hi Jcloughie The box food that came from the government i declined after the second week got my name took of the list i was happy with my Asda Slot .