No new diesel cars after 2030

[ProfJohnL]

I am not aware of any reasonable person who suggests volcanos do not cause any pollution and disruption. They do and becasue we do not have any control of them its a fact of life that has been true since the earth started to cool and produce dry land.

It is not an acceptable stance to try and hide behind what volcanos do and to suggest that human activity pales into insignificance by comparison, that is totally missing or even misdirecting the point. Any unnecessary additional pollution no matter how small is undesirable. As humans we have choices on what and how we do things, We have a moral and social duty to minimise our impact on any part of the eco system

Volcanos undoubted do affect air quality and can affect weather systems, and apparently the unbridled use of fossil fuels on the scale we are currently using them can also affect the eco system but it's also is depleting the reserves of those resources.

If we do nothing to reduce our reliance on fossil fuels now, we will sooner rather than later be forced into a situation where there simply won't be any fossil fuels to use. Once they've gone we've got to wait several million years before new supplies become available.

The ban on the sale of new ICE cars in 2030 is just one small step to reduce fossil fuel reliance. We will see many other initiatives moving towards a renewable sources, and probably projects to reduce our power demands so less energy is needed.

It's not realistic to see just one initiative being enough to make a global difference. It will take the collective effect of lots of little steps. THe UK's ban on new ICE cars may be a trailblazer, but why not be a trend setter, especially when it can show it can be done. It will encourage others to follow.

Most people are naturally resistant to change. To bring about reductions in CO2 and other pollutants will need changes to habits and traditions we have come to see as our "rites" But we have no "rite" to allow our activities to adversely affect others.

Like it or not these changes are coming, and rather than trying to ignore the situation or constructing obstacles, embrace the idea and help to look for solutions.

 

[JezzerB]

Very nicely put Prof. Can't agree more.

 

[otherclive]

The air travel disruption was for several years as the minute, particels that got into jet engines blocked the cooling ducts in the turbine blades and baked on with vast lose of power, after a few months, and not enough turn around times as all engines had to be stripped down, .

The air travel disruption wasn’t years, it was 15-23 April, with some more localised closures 4/5 May and mid May for a couple of days. The dust can not only affect engines but abrades windscreens, affects avionics cooling systems etc. But apart from some military aircraft suffering engine damage the consensus was that no commercial aircraft were damaged. I expect though that any that were considered at risk would have had inspection of their critical parts and if required change out dates brought forwards. Airlines are understandably cautious over volcanic dust especially after a British Airways 747 over Indonesia at night lost all four engines and dropped 7500 meters in 16 minutes before the engines were restarted.

http://nnsn.geo.uib.no/eworkshop/uploads/Main/icelandreport.pdf

Air travel disruption after the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[Buckman]

Can any one please explain to me how EVs are going to save the planet as they also cause pollution in the atmosphere and cause damage to the environment? I agree that it is a starting point, but is it a long term solution?
What will happen to the millions of cars that will have to be scrapped to make way for EVs. What about the enormous cost of job losses and loss of income to the government of any nation. That money has to be recouped somehow and employment found for the millions that will be out of work.
Contrary to what some people may think I am not against saving the planet, but we need to look at the reality of doing so in the short term and short term is next 20 - 50 years.

 

[otherclive]

Can any one please explain to me how EVs are going to save the planet as they also cause pollution in the atmosphere and cause damage to the environment? I agree that it is a starting point, but is it a long term solution?
What will happen to the millions of cars that will have to be scrapped to make way for EVs. What about the enormous cost of job losses and loss of income to the government of any nation. That money has to be recouped somehow and employment found for the millions that will be out of work.
Contrary to what some people may think I am not against saving the planet, but we need to look at the reality of doing so in the short term and short term is next 20 - 50 years.

I think this was discussed at length some time back so I’ve nothing more to contribute.

 

[Parksy]

.....Contrary to what some people may think I am not against saving the planet, but we need to look at the reality of doing so in the short term and short term is next 20 - 50 years.

I doubt very much if the majority of current forum members will need to lose too much sleep over the realities of what will happen to the planet or to road transport in the next 20 - 50 years 👴👵

 

[JezzerB]

Watch this Buckman. I had no idea, you don't think of the electrical cost of oil production.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mk-LnUYEXuM

 

[ProfJohnL]

Can any one please explain to me how EVs are going to save the planet as they also cause pollution in the atmosphere and cause damage to the environment? I agree that it is a starting point, but is it a long term solution?
What will happen to the millions of cars that will have to be scrapped to make way for EVs. What about the enormous cost of job losses and loss of income to the government of any nation. That money has to be recouped somehow and employment found for the millions that will be out of work.
Contrary to what some people may think I am not against saving the planet, but we need to look at the reality of doing so in the short term and short term is next 20 - 50 years.

Buckman. You have asked almost exactly the same question before, and you have received many comprehensive responses some citing well evidenced and cojent replies.

Go and read the replies to your questions in other threads

And perhaps you should tell us what (amd why) you would do?

 

[Buckman]

Buckman. You have asked almost exactly the same question before, and you have received many comprehensive responses some citing well evidenced and cojent replies.

Go and read the replies to your questions in other threads

And perhaps you should tell us what (amd why) you would do?

Every one skirts around the issue of the manufacture of EVs and the environmental damage caused never mind the masses that will become unemployed. The phrase "can't see the wood for the trees springs to mind".
I never at any time indicated that I had a solution, but I can see issues related to EVs in the future. As said I agree that we need to protect our planet, but we need to look beyond EVs which are only a starting point.

 

[Parksy]

It's highly unlikely that any caravan forum member on any caravan forum will have 'a solution' Buckman.
'We' don't need to look beyond EVs, that responsibility falls to motor manufacturers, not owners of leisure touring caravans.
If the manufacture of EVs worries you so much perhaps you should consider writing to your MP?
Forum discussion is fine, but the repetitive adversarial goading of caravan forum members who have zero influence over future automotive development is becoming tiresome and borderline harassment which could cause this thread to be locked.

 

[Buckman]

It's highly unlikely that any caravan forum member on any caravan forum will have 'a solution' Buckman.
'We' don't need to look beyond EVs, that responsibility falls to motor manufacturers, not owners of leisure touring caravans.
If the manufacture of EVs worries you so much perhaps you should consider writing to your MP?
Forum discussion is fine, but the repetitive adversarial goading of caravan forum members who have zero influence over future automotive development is becoming tiresome and borderline harassment which could cause this thread to be locked.

Apologies I did not realise that I was goading as I thought I was only asking a question or questions.

 

[Parksy]

Apologies I did not realise that I was goading as I thought I was only asking a question or questions.

Questioning forum members repeatedly about issues over which none of us have any control or influence will eventually produce irritation as some recent replies have shown.

 

[JezzerB]

I think my video should help if you watch it.

 

[Guzzilazz]

As promised, after the first week of the XC40 (R-Design, 2l 197 bhp petrol AWD Auto) , a quick feedback. More will come particularly when I take the van out for a tow. (We have a trip booked for April, but I intend to take it out "around the block" before we go).

Firstly, the build quality is impressive, and the feeling once inside and rolling is a "magic carpet". The engine/transmission is very quiet, as is the ride quality. Reviews bemoan the ease of use of the touch screen, without bothering to study Voice Control, which allows control WITHOUT touching the screen! Instrumentation and controls are very clear, the only down sides we've picked up so far are:
1. Wife finds passenger seat uncomfortable (mitigated by a £20 gel cushion)
2. Apparent poor fuel consumption. The trip indicates about 35mpg... BUT... on my first brim-to-brim calculation it's a shade under 42... More will follow, but it could be thirsty towing and with only a 54 litre may require more frequent fuel stops.

Happy so far? yes

Another superb feature I discovered today, when we went to check on the van in storage. I connected up the electrics to the car, and immediately the ATC woke up (tick 1) then when I got back in the car there was a pop up on the dash saying "Trailer connected, ready for lighting test" with OK/Cancel options. Clicked the OK, display changed to "test starting" and at the rear of the van every bulb was alight like a Christmas tree!!! Excellent idea, and one person can easily do it. Well done Volvo!

 

[Raywood]

The basis for using EV's is that they do not use fossil fuels that pollute the atmosphere. Yes there is some pollution from generating electricity but a fair proportion is now from renewable sources and that is increasing.
The downside is that they need batteries that are heavy so the car needs more power and the batteries themselves cause pollution and may need rare metals in their manufacture and they have a limited life, There are plans to se them in lesser areas after they have served their useful life in the car but that is yet to happen and unless the cost of replacing hem comes down dramatically then it may not be economically to replace and be cheaper to buy a new car causing further problems.

The EV is said to be the future but it could all go wrong.

 

[JezzerB]

All true but our mini is less than 200kg heavier than a standard cooper s and faster in the real world-though of course range is an issue. Batteries are lasting far longer than they ever expected and are being used elsewhere if they do reach the end of their life and the production of oil probably equals the production of batteries in terms of pollution if you watch the video I posted-I had no idea it used so much electricity in itself. I can't imagine battery tech going horribly wrong but improving at a vast rate . Just seen a VW id4 today-looked very nice.

 

[otherclive]

All true but our mini is less than 200kg heavier than a standard cooper s and faster in the real world-though of course range is an issue. Batteries are lasting far longer than they ever expected and are being used elsewhere if they do reach the end of their life and the production of oil probably equals the production of batteries in terms of pollution if you watch the video I posted-I had no idea it used so much electricity in itself. I can't imagine battery tech going horribly wrong but improving at a vast rate . Just seen a VW id4 today-looked very nice.

Also even if batteries reach the end of a second life they are highly recyclable.

 

[ProfJohnL]

... batteries themselves cause pollution and may need rare metals in their manufacture and they have a limited life, ....There are plans to se them in lesser areas after they have served their useful life in the car but that is yet to happen and unless the cost of replacing hem comes down dramatically then it may not be economically to replace and be cheaper to buy a new car causing further problems.

The EV is said to be the future but it could all go wrong.

Batteries that are not disposed of correctly have caused pollution no argument, but the main difference for cars these will more than likely be handled professionally and thus are not anywhere as likely to be scrapped. There are already several companies in the UK and further afield that are taking any batteries from cars and repurposing them. However the real experience of EV's is showing that batteries are lasting much longer than expected, so repurposing is a business that has not yet fully developed.

The cost of batteries will fall.

As OC has stated any batteries that are beyond further use can be very recycled very effectively and many of the rarer materials can be extensively reused. Again this is a developing business area.

Whilst there is energy needed to create batteries for EV's, and the generation of energy to run them , put into the context of whole life emissions and pollution EV's are massively better than ICE vehicles when you take into account the cost of extracting refining and delivering petroleum fuels.

Of course with almost any emerging technology there can be problems along the way , but with so many different approaches the bets are on it will be made to work. just look at how ICE cars evolved.

 

[ProfJohnL]

Coincidentally this "Fully Charged Youtube video has just come out today from Robert Llewelyn and he covers some of the points I have made about the true cost comparisons between EV and ICE, and some other quite interesting points.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l0ZHDIULEf8

 

[Beachball]

All true but our mini is less than 200kg heavier than a standard cooper s and faster in the real world-though of course range is an issue. Batteries are lasting far longer than they ever expected and are being used elsewhere if they do reach the end of their life and the production of oil probably equals the production of batteries in terms of pollution if you watch the video I posted-I had no idea it used so much electricity in itself. I can't imagine battery tech going horribly wrong but improving at a vast rate . Just seen a VW id4 today-looked very nice.

Hi JezzerB I also seen the VW id4 would not mind taking that out for a test drive

 

[Raywood]

I do appreciate that used car batteries will more likely be recycled but that is not a complete answer to the problem. Advances could mean that they are so outdated they will have little value except to extract some of the more valuable components. I do know prices will drop but after 10 years a cars value is very low and presumably if the batteries last that long even at reduced prices hey re going to cost more than the car is worth or at least be so close to it that it is cheaper to scrap the car. If things have moved on the old batteries may be of a type no longer produced so everything at that point is unknown.

 

[Dustydog]

I have tried to keep an open mind and welcome all the widely varying views so far.
My take is this.

1. In reality the carbon footprint of making an ICE v EV to the point of sale is probably the same. Raw materials design offices power for construction etc.

2. The EV is here to stay and as technology progresses caravan towing may be possible but not in my lifetime.

3.We all remember the trams and trolleybuses. Look what’s back on our streets.

4.Total dependence on renewable energy sources is still a long way off. I am not a fan of nuclear power stations. The Jury’s out on that as various Governments keep changing their minds.

5. Are we still investigating the Hydrogen power car?

6. I am very uneasy we currently rely on countries outside the U.K. for gas and electricity supplies especially as we have recently experienced an Antipathy to the U.K.

7. I am resigned to the fact EV will succeed but just can’t see one towing in the foreseeable future.
8. My neighbour has a Tesla. The acceleration is up with the F1 boys. Try one, very impressive.
Sadly my pension says NO😢😢

 

[JezzerB]

Ray these batteries are made of many cells all of which can be removed from the battery . They can then have a use elsewhere if they are still viable. No one complains about the recycling hazards or otherwise when a car goes pop ie its engine reaches the end of its like. There will be an industry of recyclers and replacers developing as we speak. It's no different to an ice vehicle.

 

[otherclive]

Ray these batteries are made of many cells all of which can be removed from the battery . They can then have a use elsewhere if they are still viable. No one complains about the recycling hazards or otherwise when a car goes pop ie its engine reaches the end of its like. There will be an industry of recyclers and replacers developing as we speak. It's no different to an ice vehicle.

Agreed and once batteries become more mainstream you will see the after OEM specialist companies get going. Just like they do for catalysts, DPF and many other ICE parts.

 

[ProfJohnL]

(Edit) I composed what follows before I'd seen JB's and OC's comments

I do appreciate that used car batteries will more likely be recycled but that is not a complete answer to the problem. Advances could mean that they are so outdated they will have little value except to extract some of the more valuable components. I do know prices will drop but after 10 years a cars value is very low and presumably if the batteries last that long even at reduced prices hey re going to cost more than the car is worth or at least be so close to it that it is cheaper to scrap the car. If things have moved on the old batteries may be of a type no longer produced so everything at that point is unknown.

I do agree we are in a situation where there is so much change taking place it's difficult to know with any certainty how it’s all going to exactly pan out. Battery technology is also advancing very quickly, and it may well mean that some present day batteries may become obsolete as far as finding new OEM replacements in the future.

That's one area where specialist recyclers can help. Car batteries are currently manufactured by using many smaller individual cells. Not all cells in car batteries will fail at the same time, and some can often be extracted and used to replace failed cells in other batteries. They may not have “as new” performance, but they can still have enough life left to be a practical solution for keeping ”obsolete” batteries functional. The other components can be stripped down and are highly recyclable- so whilst they may no longer be in battery form, they can have value for inclusion in other products.

But to use your example of where an EV does need a battery replacement. I do agree the costs we have seen quoted recently are eye watering, but the fact is the cost of battery production is falling.

It has been an industry mantra that until we have batteries that drop to the $100/kWh cost point or lower, EV’s are likely to be more expensive to produce than ICE.

According to Forbes on Dec 18, 2020,10:00am EST

https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikesc...cost-of-electric-cars-closer-to-gas-guzzlers/

“The price of a lithium-ion battery pack has fallen 89% in real terms from more than $1,100/kWh in 2010 to $137/kWh in 2020, according to the latest forecast from BloombergNEF (BNEF). By 2023, average prices will be close to $100/kWh – already prices less than this have been reported for e-bus batteries in China, although the average price was $105/kWh.”

This shows how costs fall as the technology matures and production ramps up. We saw an almost identical pattern with the cost of LCD televisions.

It is widely expected that as battery production ramps up further and new battery formulations come on line the price per kWh will fall below $100/kWh/ benchmark.

But I do agree there is a shock instore for anyone who presently needs to change a battery out of warranty. But if you analyse it a bit, the bigger picture can tell an interesting story.

Both ICE and EV’s will have annual running costs, Some item will be common to both technologies with very similar costs, for example: like windscreen wipers, tyres, Bulbs, etc. But we begin to see divergence for things like engine, drivetrain and essential ancillaries in and ICE compared to the battery and motor and drivetrain for the EV.

Typically an ICE vehicle will prove to be fairly reliable for the first few years, and any problems are hopefully covered by warranty. But as they get older smaller things often start to go wrong, Starter motors, alternators, Turbo’s, Catalysts, Timing belts/chain, and there are a myriad of parts that have to be replaced at regular service intervals. Inc Brake pads/shoes.

Consider 10 years usage Add in the cost of the fuel you use. And of course all the time the exhaust is depositing its pollutants everywhere you go.

Now consider the ongoing running costs for an EV, Servicing costs for the Drivetrain are minimal because there are so few moving parts, and because of their inherent reliability there are fewer components that need to be replaced as a matter of course. Just as with the ICE, now add in the cost of recharges for 10 years.

I’d guestimate the difference between the two total costs could easily run into several thousand pounds. It might even cover the cost of a replacement battery……especially when prices begin to fall.

Edit 2 I forgot to mention that the brake pads on EV's seem to be lasting longer too, and most EV's offer regenerative braking which slows the wear rate quite a lot.